Oilers vs Stars Prediction, Odds, Trends & Projected Lineups for Thursday Night

• Dallas has a 12-0-1 record since January 24, the best point streak in the NHL this season
• The Stars beat the Oilers twice earlier this season (8-3 and 4-3), and have won eight straight at home as a favorite
• Read my Oilers vs Stars prediction below, plus odds, trends and projected lineups for Thursday’s Western Conference clash

The Edmonton Oilers (32-25-8) visit the Dallas Stars (40-14-10) Thursday night at American Airlines Center in a Western Conference matchup with playoff stakes on both sides. Dallas sits atop the Central Division and hasn’t lost in regulation since January 13. Edmonton is scrapping for a Pacific Division spot and can’t afford to drop road games down the stretch.

The Stars have already beaten the Oilers twice this season (8-3 and 4-3). Both teams feature top-two power plays in the NHL, so discipline will be a factor.

Puck drop is at 8 pm ET on ESPN+ and Hulu. Here are my Oilers vs Stars prediction, odds and projected lineups.

Jump to: Prediction | Odds | Trends | Projected Lineups

Oilers vs Stars Prediction

• Stars ML (-125 at DraftKings)

Dallas is 12-0-1 since January 24 and 8-0 at home as a favorite during that stretch. They’ve beaten Edmonton in both meetings this season (8-3 and 4-3), and the Oilers are just 3-6 as an underdog over their last nine games. My Oilers vs Stars prediction is on the Stars moneyline.

Oettinger vs Jarry Stats

The crease mismatch is a big reason I like Dallas here. Oettinger has been one of the best goalies in hockey this season, while Jarry has a 3.93 GAA and .864 save percentage in 14 starts since Edmonton acquired him from Pittsburgh. Connor Ingram is day-to-day with an upper-body injury, so Jarry gets the nod by default.

Oilers vs Stars Key Stats

The gap between these teams is on the defensive end. Dallas allows 2.53 goals per game (3rd in the NHL) compared to Edmonton’s 3.20 (22nd), and their .899 team save percentage dwarfs the Oilers’ .876.

Edmonton’s offense is dangerous enough to keep this close — Connor McDavid leads the NHL with 110 points, and both power plays are top-two in the league. But on the road against a team that hasn’t lost in regulation in nearly two months, the Stars are the right side.

Oilers vs Stars Odds

Odds as of March 12 via consensus sportsbooks. Check out the DraftKings promo code to bet on tonight’s NHL action.

The Oilers vs Stars odds have Dallas as a moderate home favorite at -125. Edmonton is +106 on the moneyline, which gives them roughly a 46% implied probability.

With both power plays operating above 29%, any penalty trouble could swing this game quickly. The over has cashed in the last three head-to-head meetings.

Oilers vs Stars Trends

The Oilers vs Stars trends paint a clear picture for bettors. Dallas has been nearly perfect over the last two months, while Edmonton has struggled when priced as the underdog.

Dallas has won both meetings with Edmonton this season, and the home team has taken five of the last six in this series. The Oilers are 1-4 in their last five road games against teams with a winning record.

On the total, the over has hit in 70% of Edmonton’s last 10 games and 80% of Dallas’ last five. All three head-to-head meetings this season have gone over. With both penalty kills ranking outside the top 10 and both power plays converting at historic rates, there’s plenty of offense in this matchup.

Oilers vs Stars Projected Lineups

Edmonton Oilers Projected Lines

Forwards:

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Zach Hyman
Vasily Podkolzin – Leon Draisaitl – Jack Roslovic
Matt Savoie – Jason Dickinson – Kasperi Kapanen
Colton Dach – Josh Samanski – Trent Frederic

Defense:

Mattias Ekholm – Evan Bouchard
Jake Walman – Connor Murphy
Darnell Nurse – Ty Emberson

Goalie: Tristan Jarry (expected)

Injuries: Connor Ingram (upper body, day-to-day), Adam Henrique (knee, day-to-day), Mattias Janmark (out for season), Curtis Lazar (IR)

Dallas Stars Projected Lines

Forwards:

Jason Robertson – Wyatt Johnston – Mavrik Bourque
Sam Steel – Matt Duchene – Jamie Benn
Michael Bunting – Justin Hryckowian – Adam Erne
Oskar Back – Arttu Hyry – Colin Blackwell

Defense:

Esa Lindell – Miro Heiskanen
Thomas Harley – Nils Lundkvist
Lian Bichsel – Tyler Myers

Goalie: Jake Oettinger (expected)

Injuries: Tyler Seguin (knee, out for season), Mikko Rantanen (lower body), Roope Hintz (lower body), Radek Faksa (upper/lower body)

Dallas has dealt with significant injuries up front, losing Seguin for the season and Rantanen and Hintz in recent weeks. But the Stars haven’t missed a beat, leaning on Robertson, Johnston, and Duchene to carry the load.

Duchene has 45 career points in 48 games against the Oilers and has recorded a point in 11 of his last 13 games.