Panthers vs Leafs Prediction, Pick & Odds for Game 5 (May 14)

• Game 5 between the Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs is May 14 at Scotiabank Arena.

• The series is tied 2-2. Game 5 winners go on to win the series 79 percent of the time in Stanley Cup playoff history.

• Check out my special Panthers vs Leafs prediction, pick and look at the best odds for Game 5.

The Toronto Maple Leafs (48-44 ATS) host the Florida Panthers (40-51 ATS) in a pivotal Game 5 tonight at ScotiaBank Arena. Florida has outscored Toronto 14-13 in the series and won six of the last 10 meetings.

Florida is 1.5-goal favorites tonight on the puck line, with the total at 5.5 and a few spots where it’s six.

I’ve been studying this series closely. Toronto is fighting history and the defending Stanley Cup champions. I have the pick to follow, a prediction to explain and a look at the best odds.

Panthers vs Leafs Prediction for Game 5

I have to stick with my original prediction for this series, which was that Toronto would win the first two games and Florida would win the next four. Florida is now one of the leading favorites to win the Stanley Cup at the latest Stanley Cup odds.

Toronto has won its last four games as home underdogs against teams on a win streak, but the Maple Leafs also haven’t won a series that was tied 2-2 since 2004. The Panthers are 44-26-3 straight up as favorites, while the Maple Leafs are 19-9-3 as underdogs.

Right now, Florida has the edge on defense. They held Toronto to 23 shots in Game 4. Leafs star Auston Matthews hasn’t scored in nine games against Florida and the Maple Leafs are still without lead goalie Anthony Stolarz, who is dealing with an injury (cough, cough, concussion). Stolarz could be back for Game 6 in Florida.

Panthers vs Leafs Game 5 Odds

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The puck line has stayed right at 1.5-goals with Florida as the favorite, but the total has started to wiggle at some sportsbooks. Three of the four games in this series have hit the over, and Caesars and Bet365 each have the total at 6 for tonight.

While both teams were better under bets in the regular season, four of the last five Toronto games have gone over, while seven of the last eight Panthers games have hit the over.

The best moneyline value bets are Toronto at +118 at FanDuel and Florida -135 at BetMGM.

Panthers vs Leafs Pick

• Leafs +1.5 (-220 at BetMGM)

• Over 6.0 (+100 at BetMGM)

I’m picking Toronto to cover the puck line, but I like Florida to win this one in overtime. Underdogs have covered the puck line in each of the Panthers’ last 11 games in Toronto.

Unfortunately, Toronto’s recent history is full of painful defeats in just this moment. Toronto will have to use Joseph Woll again in net. Woll made 35 saves in a Game 4 loss, and is 2-2 in the playoffs with an .893 save percentage. Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is 6-3 in the playoffs with a 2.62 GAA.

This series has been close the whole way. Matthew Tkachuk is one of eight Panthers with eight points in the playoffs. Florida will find a way to win it late.