Penguins vs Leafs Prediction, Picks, Odds & Start Time (Dec. 23)

• The Maple Leafs are a -137 home moneyline favorite over the Penguins on Tuesday, Dec. 23rd
• Both teams are reeling as they find themselves out of a current playoff spot
• See my Penguins vs Maple Leafs predictions below, plus prop pick and lineups

The puck drops Tuesday afternoon in a battle between two Eastern Conference squads desperate for a victory – the Penguins have dropped eight of nine and Toronto has lost five of six affairs, leading to Monday’s firing of assistant coach Marc Savard.

Pittsburgh (15-11-9, 22-13 ATS, 39 pts) squares off against Toronto (15-15-5, 12-23 ATS. 35 pts), with the Pens second last in the Metro Division and the Leafs in the basement of the Atlantic.

Action is set to get underway at 4 pm ET / 1 pm PT from Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, with TNT/HBO Max/truTV providing the coverage in the United States and Rogers Sportsnet showcasing it in Canada.

Penguins vs Maple Leafs Prediction

• Over 6 Total Goals (-115 at Bet365)

My Penguins vs Maple Leafs prediction is that over six total goals will be scored. That’s occurred in a Pens game a whopping 11 of their last 14 battles, and in three of the Leafs last five duels. More importantly, in head-to-head matches, these two squads have done it five straight times, and six of seven.

Per the NHL odds, our SBD formula has the underdog Penguins pulling off the upset 3.63-3.39, which translates to over six goals being scored between the Penguins vs Maple Leafs.

Between Sid the Kid flying high on the good vibes of passing Super Mario in all-time points and the usual bump from having a coach fired (for Toronto), I expected there to be plenty of goals.

Since Pittsburgh shocked the NHL with a league-best 8-2-2 record in October, they’ve gone 7-9-7 since, the third-worst mark. They’ve surrendered 3.43 goals against per game, sixth worst in the NHL. Couple that with Toronto being 25th in GA/GP, and that’s where I’m loving over six goals being attained.

PIT vs Tor Season Stats/Ranks

The Pens have been a middling squad stats-wise, apart from their very proficient third-ranked power play. The Leafs are Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde on special teams, last in the NHL with a ghastly 13.3% clip on the man advantage, but phenomenal 83.2% proficiency on the penalty kill, sixth in the league. The former cost assistant coach Marc Savard his job, who was responsible for the PP. Toronto plummeted from eighth last season to the worst in 2025-26.

Neither squad features highly in the Stanley Cup Odds, with Toronto +4000 despite high pre-season hopes, and Pittsburgh is a +25000 super longshot after most prognosticators thought they’d be one of the worst teams in the sport in 2025-26.

Penguins vs Maple Leafs Props Pick

• Bobby McMann Anytime Goal Scorer (+460 at FanDuel)

For a prop bet, I’m going with Maple Leafs forward Bobby McMann to light the lamp. Admittedly it’s quite a bit of a longer shot, but I don’t love the value among the top choices. There are 13 players with shorter odds to score anytime, but I love McMann because he’s scored in both meetings against the Pens this season. Additionally, he sniped just two duels ago versus Nashville.

If you want to get spicy and parlay over six total goals, plus McMann to snipe, that total pays out a cool +600.

Penguins vs Maple Leafs Odds

The Maple Leafs are currently -137 moneyline favorites and are laying 1.5 goals on the puck line at +176. The Penguins come back as a +114 underdog, while the total currently sits at 6.5 goals at FanDuel.

The implied win probability of TOR at -137 is 57.8%. You’d need to wager $137 on the favorites to win $100, while a $100 bet on the underdogs clears $114.

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Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 9:30 a.m. ET on Dec 23.

Penguins vs Maple Leafs Projected Lineups

Pittsburgh Projected Lineup

Forwards

Rickard Rakell – Sidney Crosby  – Bryan Rust

Justin Brazeau – Tommy Novak – Anthony Mantha

Rutger McGroarty – Ben Kindel – Ville Koivunen

Connor Dewar – Kevin Hayes – Noel Acciari

Defense

Parker Wotherspoon – Erik Karlsson

Brett Kulak – Kris Letang

Ryan Shea – Jack St. Ivany

Goaltenders

Stuart Skinner

Arturs Silovs

Injuries and Scratches: Evgeni Malkin (upper body), Filip Hallander (blood clot), Blake Lizotte (upper body), Danton Heinen, Connor Clifton, Ryan Graves

Toronto Projected Lineup

Forwards

Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Max Domi

Matias Maccelli – John Tavares – William Nylander

Nick Robertson – Nicolas Roy – Bobby McMann

Dakota Joshua – Scott Laughton – Steven Lorentz

Defense

Morgan Rielly – Philippe Myers

Jake McCabe – Trey Stecher

Simon Benoit – Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Goaltenders

Joseph Woll

Dennis Hildeby

Injuries and Scratches: Chris Tanev (undisclosed), Brandon Carlo (lower body), Anthony Stolarz (upper body), Dakota Mermis (lower body), Easton Cowan, Calle Jarnkrok, Henry Thrun