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Penguins vs Red Wings Prediction, Odds & Player Props to Bet for Saturday Afternoon Hockey (Jan. 3)

Michael Harrison

By Michael Harrison in NHL Hockey

Published:


Jan 1, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Penguins right wing Bryan Rust (17) reacts to the game winning goal against the Detroit Red Wings in overtime at PPG Paints Arena. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
  • The Red Wings are a -156 home moneyline favorite over the Penguins on Saturday, Jan. 3rd
  • Pittsburgh just defeated Detroit in the first half of a home-and-home series on New Year’s Day
  • See my Penguins vs Red Wings predictions below, plus prop pick and lineups

The puck drops Saturday afternoon in a battle between two Eastern Conference foes in Pittsburgh and Detroit, after the Pens were victorious over the Wings 4-3 in overtime New Year’s Day.

Pittsburgh (18-12-9, 24-15 ATS, 45 pts) squares off against Detroit (24-14-4, 20-22 ATS, 52 pts), with the Penguins one point back of a Wild Card playoff spot, and their adversaries leading the Atlantic Division.

Action is set to get underway at noon ET / 9am PT from Little Caesars Arena from Detroit, Michigan with ABC providing the coverage in the United States and Rogers Sportsnet in Canada.

Penguins vs Red Wings Prediction

  • Over 6.5 Total Goals (+105 at Fanatics)

My Penguins vs Red Wings prediction is that over 6.5 total goals will be scored. Historically, that’s a very safe bet in this series, considering not only were there seven combined goals New Year’s Day between these two, but it’s occurred in nine of the last twelve duels between PIT and DET.

Per the NHL odds, our SBD formula has that exact same scenario taking place in the Penguins vs Red Wings odds. In three of the Pens’ last four outings, over 6.5 markers have been scored, as they’ve righted the ship following a prolonged slump, with four wins in five battles. Detroit has racked up points in droves, registering at least one in all but three of their last 17 contests (11-3-3).

Sidney Crosby is still as fantastic as always, racking up eight points on a five-game point streak (4 goals, 4 assists), as he’ll be on Canada’s roster for the 2026 Olympics. Teammates Erik Karlsson and Rickard Rakell will lace it up for Sweden, along with goalie Arturs Silovs for Latvia. As for Detroit, Dylan Larkin (USA), Lucas Raymond (Sweden) and Moritz Seider (Germany) were selected.

PIT vs DET Season Stats/Ranks

PittsburghStatDetroit
18-12-9 (45 pts)Record24-14-4 (52 pts)
3.21 (11th)Goals For/Game3.05 (18th)
3.10 (16th)Goals Against/Game3.14 (19th)
30.2% (2nd)Power Play25.2% (4th)
81.2% (11th)Penalty Kill80.2% (16th)

Both squads are middling in terms of scoring and preventing goals to go in the back of their net. The two Eastern Conference units feature fantastic power plays, with the Pens second and Wings fourth, which I’m looking towards when I’m selecting the over goal total.

Both are longshots in the Stanley Cup Odds, with Detroit +6000 and Pittsburgh way down the list at +25000.

Penguins vs Red Wings Props Pick

  • Bryan Rust Anytime Goal Scorer (+210 at FanDuel)

For a prop bet, I’m going with Penguins forward Bryan Rust to record a goal. He’s tickled the twine in over half (six) of his last eleven outings, and is second in snipes for Pittsburgh (15) this year. Additionally, he’s found the back of the net three of his last six duels with Detroit. He sports odds longer than the top-four on the betting board, so there’s some decent value on him.

If you want to get spicy and parlay over 6.5 total goals, plus Rust to score, that total pays out a cool +325.

Penguins vs Red Wings Odds

Bet TypePittsburghDetroit
Puck Line+1.5 (-184)-1.5 (+148)
TotalO 6.5 (+104)U 6.5 (-128)
Moneyline+130-156

The Red Wings are currently -156 moneyline favorites and are laying 1.5 goals on the puck line at +148. The Penguins come back as a +130 underdog, while the total currently sits at 6.5 goals at FanDuel.

The implied win probability of DET at -156 is 60.9%. You’d need to wager $156 on the favorites to win $100, while a $100 bet on the underdogs clears $130.

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Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 4:30 a.m. ET on Jan. 3

Penguins vs Red Wings Projected Lineups

Pittsburgh Projected Lineup

Forwards

Rickard Rakell – Sidney Crosby  – Bryan Rust

Anthony Mantha – Tommy Novak – Justin Brazeau

Yegor Chinakhov – Ben Kindel – Rutger McGroarty

Connor Dewar – Blake Lizotte – Noel Acciari

Defense

Parker Wotherspoon – Erik Karlsson

Brett Kulak – Kris Letang

Ryan Shea – Jack St. Ivany

Goaltenders

Stuart Skinner

Arturs Silovs

Injuries: Evgeni Malkin (upper body), Filip Hallander (leg)

Detroit Projected Lineup

Forwards

Emmitt Finnie – Dylan Larkin – Lucas Raymond

Alex Debrincat – Andrew Copp – Patrick Kane

Michael Rasmussen – J.T Compher – Mason Appleton

Marco Casper – Nate Danielson – James van Riemsdyk

Defense

Simon Edvinsson – Moritz Seider

Ben Chiarot – Axel Sandin-Pellikka

Albert Johansson – Jacob Bernard-Docker

Goaltenders

John Gibson

Cam Talbot

Injuries: None

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Michael Harrison
Michael Harrison

Sports & Entertainment Writer

Michael "Hound Dog" Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 19 years, is the CEO of his "All Bets Par Off" weekly golf betting videos and his HDOG POD, along with several others.

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