Rangers vs Lightning Prediction, Picks, Odds & How to Watch (Nov. 12)

• I’ve made my Rangers vs Lightning prediction for Wednesday night’s game in Tampa Bay
• New York enters 8-7-2 after a rare offensive explosion, while Tampa sits 8-5-2 with seven wins in 10 games
• See my full Rangers vs Lightning picks, odds and how to watch below for Wednesday, November 12th

The Rangers and Lightning meet Wednesday night for the first time this season. Both teams sit at 18 points, although Tampa has been the hotter team lately, with a 7-3-0 record in their last 10 games, compared to New York’s 5-4-1.

New York just dropped six on Nashville Monday, but that looks like an outlier. Tampa’s been an under machine with nine of their last 12 staying at six or fewer goals. Puck drops at 7:00 pm ET from Benchmark International Arena.

Rangers vs Lightning Prediction

The under is my best bet for Rangers vs Lightning. New York ranks dead last in the league at 2.41 goals per game. That 6-3 win over Nashville was their first seven-goal showing since early in the season, and every time they’ve had one of those rare offensive nights, they’ve hit the under in the next game.

Tampa’s been consistently low-scoring. Nine of their last 12 have stayed at six or fewer, with most landing right at five. The goaltending matchup backs this up. Vasilevskiy has won three straight, and the Under has hit in seven of his last 10. Shesterkin posted a .935 save percentage in a shutout loss to Carolina right before Monday.

The Rangers are creating 104 high-danger chances versus Tampa’s 81, but they’re only shooting 7.69% on those looks compared to the Lightning’s 14.81%. New York is generating quality looks, but not finishing.

Rangers vs Lightning 2025-26 Stats

Defense is the story for both teams. The Rangers allow just 2.53 goals per game, ranking fourth in the NHL, while Tampa is close behind at 2.73 (eighth). The Rangers are brutal offensively, ranking 31st in goals, but their defensive structure keeps things tight.

Special teams are a clear edge for Tampa. The Lightning own the NHL’s top penalty kill at 89.6%, while the Rangers are at 80.4%. Tampa also has the advantage on the power play, converting at 18.0% compared to just 14.0% for New York, which ranks 30th.

Brandon Hagel is carrying Tampa with seven points in his last five, including five goals. Victor Hedman leads the team with 13 points and quarterbacks the power play. For New York, Alexis Lafreniere paces the squad with 12 points, while Artemi Panarin has 11 but sits at minus-7. Per the NHL odds, Tampa’s home ice and special teams advantage explain the pricing.

Tampa’s banged up. Anthony Cirelli, Max Crozier, Victor Hedman and Pontus Holmberg are all questionable. Dominic James and Ryan McDonagh are out indefinitely. New York’s only missing Matt Rempe.

The trends back the Under. It’s hit in four of Tampa’s last five at home and three of their last four after a win. For the Rangers, the Under is 6-1 in their last seven when the opponent allowed two or fewer previously. New York hit the Under in four straight before Monday and six of seven before the Nashville outlier.

• My Rangers vs Lightning Prediction: Under 6 (-110 at Caesars)

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Rangers vs Lightning Picks

There’s value in the Rangers at +110 if you want a side. New York’s 7-1-1 on the road this season, which is a massive split from their home struggles. They’re 4-0 in their last four road games and 4-0 playing on one day’s rest.

Tampa’s 1-4 in their last five versus Metropolitan Division opponents and 1-5 when their opponent scored five or more in the previous game. The Lightning are also 1-4 in games playing on three or more days rest.

Igor Shesterkin is the projected starter for New York, entering with a 5-6-2 record, 2.46 goals-against average, and .909 save percentage. Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to start for Tampa Bay, posting a 5-4-2 record with a 2.64 GAA and .908 save percentage. Both goalies are capable of stealing games.

I can’t fault you for playing the Rangers, but the Under is my most confident prediction. Both teams play strong defense, and New York’s offense has been inconsistent. Tampa Bay often goes under the total at home, and the Rangers usually play low-scoring games after a big offensive night.

Rangers vs Lightning Odds

Tampa’s a -130 favorite at home, laying 1.5 at +195 on the puck line. New York comes back at +110, with the total sitting at 6.

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Odds as of Nov. 12th. Check out the NHL matchups page for all of today’s games.

How to Watch Rangers vs Lightning

Watch the Rangers vs Lightning game on TNT starting at 7:00 pm ET. Stream it on Max if you don’t have cable.