Red Wings vs Penguins Prediction, Picks, Odds & Trends (March 31)

• Detroit is 10-2 on the road after a loss over its last 12 games, while Pittsburgh is on the second half of a back-to-back
• The over has cashed in five straight Penguins games and 12 of their last 13 overall
• See my Red Wings vs Penguins prediction, picks, odds and trends for Tuesday night at PPG Paints Arena

The Red Wings (39-26-8) and Penguins (37-21-16) are both chasing a spot in the NHL Playoff Bracket, but they’re coming at this one from very different spots. Detroit lost 5-3 in Philadelphia on Saturday, while Pittsburgh hung eight on the Islanders in a blowout win last night.

That back-to-back is worth noting. The Pens played an 8-3 game that featured eight combined goals in the second period alone, so legs could be an issue against a Detroit team sitting on two days of rest. Puck drop is at 7:00 pm ET from PPG Paints Arena.

My Red Wings vs Penguins prediction and picks are below, along with the latest odds and key betting trends.

Jump to: Prediction | Picks | Odds | Trends

Red Wings vs Penguins Prediction

• Red Wings Moneyline (-110 at Fanatics)

My Red Wings vs Penguins prediction is Detroit on the moneyline. The Wings are 10-2 on the road after a loss over their last 12 games, and 6-1 as a road favorite over their last seven. Those are strong situational trends for a team that needs every point it can get in the wild card race.

Pittsburgh is 1-6 following a win over its last seven games, and 0-4 at home against teams with a winning road record over their last four. The Pens just played an exhausting 8-3 game against the Islanders, and catching them on the second night of a back-to-back is exactly the kind of spot Detroit thrives in.

Red Wings vs Penguins Key Stats

John Gibson is confirmed to start for Detroit and brings a .905 save percentage and 2.58 GAA into the game. He’s been the Wings’ workhorse with 50 appearances. Stuart Skinner is the expected starter for Pittsburgh with a .887 save percentage and 2.90 GAA across 45 games.

Detroit also dominates the faceoff dot at 50.80% (12th) compared to Pittsburgh’s 47.88% (24th), and the Wings block shots at the third-highest rate in the NHL. That combination of goaltending, possession and defensive structure is why I’m backing Detroit at a near pick’em price.

Red Wings vs Penguins Picks

Here are my Red Wings vs Penguins picks on the player prop side.

• Alex DeBrincat Over 0.5 Assists (+105 at DraftKings)

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DeBrincat has recorded an assist in six of his last seven road games, averaging 1.0 per game during that stretch. He’s been one of Detroit’s most reliable playmakers on the road this season, and his cross-ice vision on the power play gives him plenty of opportunities to set up teammates.

He’s a scorer and a playmaker, and getting plus money on an 86% hit rate is great value against a Pittsburgh team that’s allowed a power play goal in five straight games.

• Patrick Kane Over 0.5 Points (-150 at Bet365)

Wrapping up my Red Wings vs Penguins picks, I’m taking Kane to record a point. He’s hit the scoresheet in five of his last six games, averaging 1.3 points per contest.

Kane assisted on both a DeBrincat goal and a Lucas Raymond goal in Saturday’s loss to Philly, and he’s five multi-assist games away from tying Phil Housley for the most by a US-born skater in NHL history.

The -150 price isn’t cheap, but Kane skates on Detroit’s second line alongside DeBrincat and Andrew Copp. In a game where I expect the Wings to produce, Kane should be involved.

Red Wings vs Penguins Odds

Odds as of Mar. 31. New bettors can use the bet365 bonus code to bet on the NHL odds tonight.

This is essentially a pick’em game. Detroit’s -110 moneyline translates to an implied probability of about 52%, while Pittsburgh’s -102 gives the Pens roughly a 50% implied chance. That tells you the books see this as a coin flip, which makes the situational edge on Detroit even more appealing.

The Red Wings vs Penguins odds on the puck line are wide. Detroit is +220 to win by two or more, while Pittsburgh is a steep -250 on the +1.5. Given the last three games at PPG Paints Arena between these teams have all gone to overtime, paying up for the -1.5 puck line on either side feels risky.

The total is set at 6.5, with the over at -105 at DraftKings and the under at -114 at FanDuel. With Pittsburgh’s over hitting in 12 of its last 13 games and the over cashing in five of the last six H2H meetings in Pittsburgh, the number is justified.

Red Wings vs Penguins Trends

The numbers paint a clear picture for this Red Wings vs Penguins matchup. Here are the betting trends worth knowing heading into Tuesday night.

The over has hit in 12 of Pittsburgh’s last 13 games overall, and in five of the last six meetings between these teams in Pittsburgh. The over is also 5-0 in the Penguins’ last five games against teams with a winning record, and 4-0 in Detroit’s last four against Metropolitan Division opponents.

On the moneyline side, Detroit is 10-2 on the road after a loss and 9-2 in its last 11 games on two days of rest. Pittsburgh is just 1-6 following a win and 0-4 at home against teams with a winning road record. The home team has historically owned this series — Detroit is 6-17 in its last 23 meetings in Pittsburgh — but all three games at PPG Paints Arena this season and last have gone to overtime.

One more worth watching: opponents have converted on 47.1% of their power play chances (8-for-17) in Pittsburgh’s last five games. Detroit’s power play has struggled this month at just 16.3%, but the Pens are giving up man-advantage goals at an unsustainable rate.

John Gibson vs Stuart Skinner Stats

Gibson has been the backbone of Detroit’s NHL playoff push, though he’s hit a rough patch recently — going 3-5-1 with a 2.86 GAA and .895 save percentage over his last nine starts. He allowed four goals on 21 shots in Saturday’s loss to Philly.

Skinner has been up and down for Pittsburgh. He allowed four goals on 24 shots in a 6-3 loss at Dallas on Saturday, and has given up four or more goals in five of his last 10 starts. On a back-to-back, fatigue could be a factor if the Pens don’t get him early run support.