Senators vs Flames Prediction, Best Bets, Odds & Projected Lineups for March 5

• Ottawa is -180 on the road in Calgary as the Flames continue to sell off pieces ahead of Friday’s trade deadline
• Tim Stutzle brings a 10-game point streak into the Saddledome, where the home team has won six of the last seven in this series
• Read my Senators vs Flames prediction and best bets below, plus the latest odds and projected lineups for Thursday night

The Ottawa Senators (29-22-9, 15-12-4 away) continue their five-game Western Canada road trip with a stop in Calgary to face the Flames (24-29-7, 15-11-4 home) at Scotiabank Saddledome. Ottawa sits six points outside a Wild Card spot with 22 games left and can’t afford to drop points against a team that’s already waving the white flag.

Calgary shipped MacKenzie Weegar to Utah on Wednesday and could move more veterans before Friday’s 3 pm ET deadline. The Flames have won just three of their last 12 games and were demolished 6-1 by Dallas on Tuesday.

Puck drop is set for 9 pm ET on TSN5 and Sportsnet West. Here are my Senators vs Flames prediction, best bets, odds and projected lineups.

Senators vs Flames Prediction

• Senators -1.5 (+140 at Bet365)

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I’m taking the Senators on the puck line for my Senators vs Flames prediction. Ottawa has won three straight in this series, all by one goal, and I think they pull away in this one against a Calgary team that’s falling apart in real time.

The talent gap is wide. Ottawa scores 3.30 goals per game (11th) with an eighth-ranked power play at 23.59%. Calgary’s 2.45 goals per game is dead last in the NHL, and their shooting percentage (8.46%) sits at the bottom of the league, too. The Flames have managed just three total goals across their last three losses.

Senators vs Flames Key Stats

The deadline chaos adds another layer. Weegar is already gone, Rasmus Andersson was dealt to Vegas in January, and Kadri and Coleman could be next. That kind of roster instability doesn’t exactly inspire confidence behind a Calgary team that got blown out at home two days ago.

Ottawa has covered the puck line in 12 of its last 20 road games, and the Flames are 0-5 in their last five following a home loss of 3+ goals. The Senators have the better skaters, the better motivation and the better goaltending matchup. I’ll lay the goal and a half.

Senators vs Flames Best Bets

• Tim Stutzle Over 0.5 Assists (-118 at BetMGM)

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Stutzle has 28 goals and 37 assists and is riding a 10-game point streak with 14 points (six goals, eight assists) during the run. He’s notched a helper in three straight and had two assists against Edmonton on Tuesday.

Against Calgary specifically, Stutzle has eight assists in the last seven meetings and has recorded at least one in three consecutive games against the Flames. He’s got 17 helpers in 31 road appearances this season. At -118, this is one of my favorite Senators vs Flames best bets on the board.

• Brady Tkachuk Anytime Goal (+167 at Caesars)

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Tkachuk has 15 goals in 40 games and gets a homecoming of sorts in Calgary, the city where his family has deep ties. He’s got the shortest anytime goal odds among all skaters in this game, and with Ottawa’s power play clicking at nearly 24%, he’ll have chances with the man advantage.

Calgary takes 11.85 penalty minutes per game (29th in the NHL), which should give the Senators plenty of power-play time. Tkachuk’s price at +167 is solid for a top-line winger who parks himself in front of the net on PP1.

Senators vs Flames Odds

Odds as of March 5 via Caesars Sportsbook. Canadian bettors can claim the Bet99 promo code and get a bonus to bet on tonight’s NHL odds.

The Senators vs Flames odds have Ottawa as a fairly heavy -180 road favorite with Calgary at +152. The puck line sits at Ottawa -1.5 (+140) and Calgary +1.5 (-165). The total is set at 5.5, with the over at -115 and the under at -105.

Ottawa’s -180 moneyline carries roughly a 64% implied probability, and that feels about right given the matchup. If you want more exposure, the Senators’ team total is set at 3.5 (+110 over), which is interesting considering they average 3.30 per game against a team allowing 2.97.

Senators vs Flames Projected Lineups

Ottawa Senators Projected Lines

Forwards:

Drake Batherson – Tim Stutzle – Claude Giroux
Brady Tkachuk – Dylan Cozens – Ridly Greig
Nick Cousins – Shane Pinto – Michael Amadio
Kurtis MacDermid – Lars Eller – Fabian Zetterlund

Defense:

Jake Sanderson – Artem Zub
Thomas Chabot – Nick Jensen
Tyler Kleven – Jordan Spence

Goalie: Linus Ullmark (confirmed)

Ullmark gets the call after allowing five goals on 37 shots in Tuesday’s overtime loss to Edmonton. His season numbers sit at 16-8-7 with a 2.86 GAA, and while that line wasn’t pretty, he was excellent in his previous two starts — a 5-2 win in Toronto and a 1-2 OT loss in Detroit, where he stopped 18 of 20.

Nikolas Matinpalo (undisclosed) is questionable, and David Perron (sports hernia) remains out.

Calgary Flames Projected Lines

Forwards:

Connor Zary – Nazem Kadri – Joel Farabee
Blake Coleman – Mikael Backlund – Matt Coronato
Yegor Sharangovich – Morgan Frost – Matvei Gridin
Ryan Lomberg – Martin Pospisil – Adam Klapka

Defense:

Yan Kuznetsov – Zach Whitecloud
Kevin Bahl – Brayden Pachal
Joel Hanley – Zayne Parekh

Goalie: Dustin Wolf (expected)

Wolf carries a 17-23-2 record with a 2.97 GAA. He was pulled in spirit if not in body against Dallas on Tuesday, allowing four goals on 17 shots in the 6-1 loss. He was actually sharp before that, stopping 35 of 36 in a 2-0 loss to LA and 34 of 35 in a 4-1 win over San Jose.

Calgary’s blue line is a shell of what it was a month ago. Weegar and Andersson are both gone via trade, Jake Bean (undisclosed) is out indefinitely, and Jonathan Huberdeau (hip surgery) and Samuel Honzek (upper body) are done for the year. Olli Maatta, acquired in the Weegar deal, won’t play Thursday but should be available Saturday.