Stars vs Knights Prediction, Odds, Props & How to Watch (Jan. 29)

• The Knights are -120 home favorites over the Stars on Thursday
• Dallas boasts the league’s second best powerplay, but rank bottom-seven in expected goals for at even strength
• See my Stars vs Knights prediction, plus the latest odds, props and how to watch on Jan. 29

Two of the West’s top-four teams square off tonight in Vegas as the Dallas Stars (30-14-9, 16-7-6 away) visit the Knights (25-14-13, 12-7-6 home). Online sportsbooks are siding with Vegas in the latest NHL odds, but I see more value on the 6.5 goal total.

Keep reading for my Stars vs Knights prediction below, along with the latest odds, props and how to watch this Western Conference showdown.

Stars vs Knights Prediction

• Under 6.5 goals (-135 at DraftKings)

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I’m taking under 6.5 goals tonight, as these two Stanley Cup odds contenders are two of the better defensive teams in the NHL. Furthermore, Dallas gets a large percentage of their offense thanks to its power play, but only Colorado takes fewer penalties than Vegas. The Stars’ five-on-five offense hasn’t scared anyone all year, while the Knights rank sixth in expected goals against at even strength.

DAL vs VGK: 5-vs-5 Advanced Stats

If you want to play Devil’s Advocate, Vegas has scored the second most goals in January, but I don’t expect them to light the lamp too often against Jake Oettinger. The 27-year-old has allowed more than 3 goals in only three of his last 23 starts, and Dallas gives up scoring chances at a bottom-11 rate.

Oettinger is also above league average in high danger save percentage, which is significant since the Knights are one of the top teams at generating premium chances in tight, and feature plenty of elite scorers in Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and Mitch Marner, just to name a few.

Jake Oettinger vs Adin Hill Stats

If there’s a reason to be pessimistic about the under hitting tonight, it has to be the play of Vegas starting netminder Adin Hill. The 29-year-old has struggled since returning from his latest injury, posting a 4.31 GAA and .825 save percentage in four games. He’s fresh off a pair of poor starts, but now he returns home, where he’s historically performed much better.

Over his previous three seasons, he posted a save percentage north of .910 or better in his own barn, with a GAA of 2.54 or lower in each campaign. He’ll need to be sharp tonight against a lineup featuring Mikko Rantanen, Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston, but it’s important to note where the bulk of their production comes from.

44% of Rantanen’s points and 42% of Robertson’s points have come with the man advantage this season, while Johnston’s splits are even more severe. 5-on-5, they’re not nearly as effective, and against a team that is as disciplined as Vegas, I don’t envision much offense out of the Dallas lineup.

Stars vs Knights Odds

As mentioned, my Stars vs Knights prediction is under 6.5 goals, but you can get +110 odds on under 5.5 goals if you want to chase a bigger payout.

Speaking of plus money, Vegas is currently +210 to cover the -1.5 puckline, while you can grab Dallas at even odds to pull off the upset.

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Stars vs Knights Props

• Wyatt Johnston Under 0.5 Points (+135 at DraftKings)

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Back to Johnston, who I’m betting under 0.5 points tonight at juicy +135 odds. 49% of his points this season have come via the power play, and a matchup with one of the NHL’s least penalized teams drastically reduces his offensive ceiling.

Johnston has recorded only 1 even strength point over his last six games, and that was against a St. Louis team that’s allowed the third-most 5-on-5 goals this season.

Stars vs Knights How to Watch

Puck drop for tonight’s matchup is set for 7 pm PT, 10 pm ET at Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena. The game can be streamed on ESPN+, as well as Scripps Sports and the Victory+ Sports Network.