Stars vs Capitals Prediction, Odds, H2H History & How to Watch (Jan. 7)

• The Stars look to snap a six-game losing streak in Washington on Wednesday night
• Dallas has dominated this matchup historically, going 20-6 in their last 26 meetings with the Capitals
• See my Stars vs Capitals prediction for Wednesday’s matchup at Capital One Arena, plus odds and how to watch

The Stars are in a tailspin. After getting thrashed 6-3 in Carolina on Tuesday night, Dallas brings a six-game losing streak into Washington on Wednesday for the back end of a back-to-back. It’s a brutal spot for a team that was sitting pretty at 25-10-8 just two weeks ago.

Dallas is 11-2 in their last 13 games on zero days rest, though, and they match up well in net. The Capitals (22-15-6) are coming off a 7-4 win over Anaheim, which triggers their worst trend of the season. Washington is 0-5 in their last five games following a win.

Puck drop is 7:00 PM ET from Capital One Arena. Here’s my Stars vs Capitals prediction for Wednesday night, along with betting odds and best picks.

Stars vs Capitals Prediction

Stars vs Capitals Pick: Stars ML (+115 at BetMGM)

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My Stars vs Capitals prediction for Wednesday is Dallas snapping their losing streak in Washington. Getting the Stars at +115 is too good when they’re 13-3 in their last 16 trips to Capital One Arena. Six straight losses looks ugly, but Dallas is still 25-10-8 overall, and they match up well in net.

Casey DeSmith came in relief last night against Carolina and stopped 16 of 17 shots. He’s 9-2-4 this year with a .913 save percentage and +10.1 goals saved above expected. If Jake Oettinger gets the nod instead, he’ll be motivated after getting pulled for the first time since Game 5 of the Western Conference finals. Either way, Dallas has quality goaltending.

Logan Thompson’s expected to start for Washington. He’s been solid this season with a .914 save percentage, but he’s just 1-3 in his career against Dallas. The Capitals are also missing Tom Wilson and possibly Aliaksei Protas, which hurts their forward depth badly. Wilson’s been their best forward this season.

Matchup Stats

Dallas has the second-best power play in hockey at 30%, and Washington kills penalties at just 76.9% (27th in the league). That’s a huge mismatch in special teams. The Caps’ power play sits dead last at 15.6%, so they can’t manufacture goals when they need them.

The Stars are also shooting 13.44% this season, best in the NHL. They’re not generating the most chances, but they’re finishing at a ridiculous rate. Washington’s been better at controlling possession at 5-on-5 (51.27% of shot attempts vs Dallas’ 45.72%), but possession doesn’t win games when you can’t score on the power play.

Over their last 10 games, Dallas has allowed 3.91 expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Washington’s allowed 3.81 xGA/60 over the same stretch. Neither team is defending particularly well right now, but Dallas has better goaltending and way more offensive weapons to make up for it.

The Caps are on a 0-5 drought after wins, and they just scored seven goals against Anaheim. That’s been the pattern lately – they grind out a big offensive performance, then come out flat the next game. Dallas is struggling right now with six straight losses, but they’re 20-6 in their last 26 meetings with Washington. This is a matchup they own.

Stars vs Capitals Odds

The Stars at +115 on the moneyline carry an implied probability of 46.5% to win. You’d risk $100 to win $115, returning $215 total on a winning bet. Washington at -140 has an implied probability of 58.3%, meaning you’d risk $140 to win $100.

Getting Dallas at plus money is the play. They’re the better team even with the losing streak, and Thompson’s just 1-3 in his career against the Stars. The Capitals are favored at home, but Dallas is 13-4-5 on the road this year, and they’ve destroyed Washington in this building historically.

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NHL betting odds as of Jan. 7 at BetMGM Sportsbook. Claim this BetMGM promo code for your Stars vs Capitals bets.

The puck line at +1.5 (-210) for Dallas means they can lose by one, and you still cash. You’d need to risk $210 to win $100, though. That’s way too much juice to lay on any team, especially one that’s won outright 13 of 16 times here. Take the moneyline instead.

Washington -1.5 at +170 means they need to win by two or more, and you’d profit $170 on a $100 bet. The Caps just scored seven against Anaheim, but Dallas has too much offensive talent to get blown out even on a back-to-back.

The total at 6 leans over. Dallas has hit the over in 7 of its last 9 games, and Washington has hit it in 6 of 7. Neither team defends well right now, and both can score in bunches. Over 6 at -118 is solid, but I’m focused on the Stars moneyline as the best value.

Stars vs Capitals Head-to-Head

Dallas owns this matchup. The Stars are 20-6 in their last 26 meetings with Washington and 13-3 in their last 16 trips to Capital One Arena. The home team’s gone 4-0 in the last four meetings, which favors Washington tonight, but that’s a tiny sample compared to Dallas’ overall dominance here.

The under hit in 8 of the last 10 meetings between these teams, but the recent trends have shifted. Three of the last five have been tight, low-scoring affairs, with Dallas winning two of them 1-0 and 3-1. The two games before that went to overtime and a shootout, though, with nine total goals scored each time.

Dallas has won as underdogs in Washington before. They took it 3-2 back in October 2024 at +133, so getting them at +115 tonight isn’t crazy. The Capitals’ home ice advantage hasn’t mattered much against the Stars over the years.

How to Watch Stars vs Capitals

Wednesday’s game starts at 7:00 PM ET from Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. TNT will carry the broadcast in the United States.