Wild vs Golden Knights Prediction, Picks, Odds & Lineup Notes for March 6

• Minnesota has won both meetings with Vegas this season and can complete its first season sweep since the Golden Knights’ inaugural year
• The over has cashed in 20 of the Wild’s last 26 games, and no team has scored five or more goals more often this season than Minnesota
• See my Wild vs Golden Knights prediction and picks below, plus the latest odds and lineup notes for Friday’s late game in Vegas

The Minnesota Wild (36-16-10, 18-9-3 away) take their act to T-Mobile Arena on Friday night to face the Vegas Golden Knights (29-19-14, 14-8-7 home) in a battle between teams heading in opposite directions. Minnesota owns the NHL’s best road record since November 7 at 16-5-2 (.739), while Vegas is 4-7-2 since January 25.

The Wild have already beaten Vegas twice this season, including a 5-2 win at T-Mobile back in December. A win tonight would give Minnesota its first season sweep of the Golden Knights since 2017-18, Vegas’ first year of existence.

Puck drop is set for 10 pm ET on ESPN+. Here are my Wild vs Golden Knights prediction, picks and odds.

Wild vs Golden Knights Prediction

• Wild ML (-110 at DraftKings)

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I’m taking Minnesota straight up for my Wild vs Golden Knights prediction. The Wild went 1-5-0 against Vegas over the previous two seasons, averaging just 2.00 goals per game in those matchups. They’ve completely flipped the script this year, averaging 4.00 goals and allowing just 2.00 across two wins.

Minnesota’s road numbers back it up. Since November 7, the Wild have the best road record in the NHL (.739 points percentage) and are scoring 3.91 goals per road game, the most in the league over that stretch. They’re 10-3-1 in their last 14 overall and just hammered Tampa Bay 5-1 on Tuesday.

Wild vs Golden Knights Key Stats

Vegas does have one clear edge: they’re 0-8 in their last eight games on one day’s rest, but the Golden Knights own the best third-period goal differential over the past two seasons (+76), so they’re never out of a game. Still, that .876 team save percentage (29th) and 12.37% opponent shooting percentage (also 29th) are ugly numbers to bring into a game against an offense as balanced as Minnesota’s.

The Wild are 7-1 in their last eight on two days’ rest, and 5-1 in their last six following a win. I’ll take Minnesota at a pick’em price.

Wild vs Golden Knights Picks

• Matt Boldy Over 0.5 Assists (-115 at Bet365)

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Boldy has 35 goals and 37 assists and is tied with Kaprizov for the highest percentage of Minnesota’s goals this season (17.1% each). He’s been on a tear since the Olympics, racking up seven assists since play resumed, including three in Tuesday’s 5-1 win over Tampa.

He already has two helpers in two meetings with Vegas this season and has 18 assists in 27 road games. Boldy rides shotgun with Joel Eriksson Ek, and their line generates enough looks to make this a comfortable play at -115.

• Over 6.5 Goals (+100 at FanDuel)

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The over has cashed in 20 of Minnesota’s last 26 games. That’s not a typo. No team in the NHL has scored five or more goals more often this season than the Wild (18 times, tied with Colorado and Buffalo). The over is also 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Vegas and 7-1-3 in the Golden Knights’ last 11 against Central Division opponents.

Vegas’ save percentage is the second-worst in the league, and Minnesota’s penalty kill against the Knights has been a problem (53.8% PK over the last two seasons). That means both sides will cash in on power-play chances, and at even money, the over is an easy play.

Wild vs Golden Knights Odds

Odds as of March 6 via consensus sportsbooks. Check out the FanDuel promo code to get a sign-up bonus for tonight’s NHL odds.

The Wild vs Golden Knights odds have this one as essentially a coin flip, with both teams trading at -110 on the moneyline. The puck line sits at Minnesota -1.5 (+220) and Vegas +1.5 (-270). The total is set at 6, with the over at -120 and under at +100.

Both moneylines carry roughly a 52.4% implied probability after removing the vig. Vegas scores 3.59 goals per home game (4th in the NHL) and has the largest home-road scoring differential in the league (+0.56), so the books are respecting the Golden Knights’ home-ice advantage despite the recent slide.

Wild vs Golden Knights Lineup Notes

Filip Gustavsson gets the start for Minnesota after a dominant 5-1 win in Tampa on Tuesday where he stopped 24 of 25 shots. The 27-year-old carries a 22-10-5 record with a 2.54 GAA this season and has been lights out in his last two starts, posting a .978 SV% against Colorado and a .960 against Tampa.

Akira Schmid starts for Vegas with a 16-8-5 record and 2.56 GAA. He’s dropped two straight (3-2 loss to Buffalo, 3-2 loss to Washington) and hasn’t looked sharp recently.

The Wild added Bobby Brink and Nick Foligno at the deadline. Foligno joins his brother Marcus in Minnesota, though Marcus is out with a lower-body injury. Quinn Hughes continues to transform the blue line, leading all NHL defensemen in assists (34) and ranking second in points (38) since his December 14 debut with the Wild.

Vegas is without Mark Stone (upper body, IR), William Karlsson (lower body), Brett Howden (lower body) and Alex Pietrangelo (hip, season). The Knights added depth center Nic Dowd from Washington but haven’t made any big splashes. Jack Eichel (20 points in 16 career games vs Minnesota) and Mitch Marner (18 points in 17 games) will carry the offensive load.