NHL Winter Classic Picks: Rangers vs Panthers Prediction, Odds & Projected Lineups

• The NHL hosts its first outdoor game in Florida, with the Rangers taking on the Panthers at LoanDepot Park on Friday night
• New York brings a perfect 5-0 outdoor record, but Florida has won five of the last six meetings between these teams
• See my Rangers vs Panthers prediction for Friday’s Winter Classic, plus odds and best picks

The 2026 Winter Classic makes history tonight as the NHL brings outdoor hockey to Miami for the first time. The Rangers (19-18-5) arrive with something to prove after losing three straight, while the Panthers (21-15-3) look to capitalize on home ice in this unique setting.

New York comes in with a 5-0 record in outdoor games, having beaten Philadelphia, New Jersey, the Islanders twice, and Buffalo in past Winter Classics and Stadium Series games. But recent history favors Florida, who have taken five of the last six head-to-head. That’s the stat I predict matters most tonight.

Puck drop is 8:00 PM ET from Miami. Here’s my Rangers vs Panthers prediction for tonight’s Winter Classic, along with my best picks and NHL betting odds.

Rangers vs Panthers Prediction

My Rangers vs Panthers prediction for Friday’s Winter Classic is Florida winning at home. The Panthers’ 5-1 record in their last six against New York tells you everything about this matchup. They’ve figured out how to beat the Rangers, and playing at home in a historic setting adds to their advantage.

The advanced numbers back Florida, too. In their last 10 games at 5-on-5, the Panthers have scored on 15.12% of high-danger shots, while the Rangers are at 10.20%. That’s a key reason why Florida keeps winning, even without dominating possession.

Advanced Stats (Last 10 Games, 5v5)

New York’s offense is struggling. They rank second-lowest in the league with 2.55 goals per game and have been shut out eight times this season, more than any other team. The Rangers have lost three in a row, and their 5-on-5 shooting percentage is just 8.02% over the last 10 games. That won’t cut it against a Florida team that’s 4-0 in their last four games after a loss.

Matchup Stats

The Panthers are missing Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk, which is huge, but their depth has stepped up. Sam Reinhart has 22 goals, Brad Marchand has 23, and Sam Bennett has 13. New York’s defense has to account for three legitimate scoring threats, and they’ve been leaky all season.

The Rangers are actually controlling play better at 5-on-5, but they’re converting at a brutal 8.02% shooting percentage. Florida’s getting better results despite being outchanced, partly because they’re finishing at 15.12% on high-danger opportunities. Florida’s just cashing in when they get their chances, and that’s the difference.

Winter Classic Picks

I’m taking Panthers ML at -140. The head-to-head edge is too strong to ignore, and Florida’s been money after losses this season. The Rangers’ outdoor record is nice, but it doesn’t mean much when you’re scoring 2.55 goals per game and facing a team that’s beaten you five of the last six times.

For props, Sam Bennett over 2.5 shots on goal at -140 is my top play. Bennett has hit this number in five straight games against the Rangers, averaging 3.6 shots per contest in those matchups. He’s got extra motivation tonight, too, after being snubbed from Canada’s Olympic team. Expect him to come out firing.

Artemi Panarin over 2.5 shots at -160 is my other Winter Classic prop. The Rangers star has cleared this number in 8 of his last 9 games against winning teams, averaging 4.78 shots in those contests. Even when the Rangers are struggling, Panarin’s still putting pucks on net.

Rangers vs Panthers Odds

Florida at -140 means you’re laying $140 to win $100. New York at +115 pays $115 on a $100 bet. In terms of implied probability, the books have Florida at about 58% to win and the Rangers around 47%.

The puck line works like a spread—Florida -1.5 means they need to win by two or more. The Rangers are heavy -210 juice to keep the game within two goals at +1.5.

The Winter Classic total is set at 5.5 with -115 to the Over. Four of the last six Winter Classics have gone over, and the last two meetings between these teams also cleared the total.

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NHL betting odds as of Jan. 2 at BetMGM Sportsbook. Claim this BetMGM promo code for your Winter Classic bets. Check out the full Rangers vs Panthers betting odds for more markets.

Rangers vs Panthers Projected Lineups

New York Rangers

Forwards

Defense

Goalies: Igor Shesterkin (starter), expected backup TBD

Florida Panthers

Forwards

Defense

Goalies: Sergei Bobrovsky (starter), expected backup TBD

Florida’s missing Aleksander Barkov (knee) and Matthew Tkachuk (groin), while New York is without J.T. Miller (upper body). The Panthers’ depth has handled the injuries better than expected, with Reinhart (22 goals), Marchand (23 goals), and Bennett (13 goals) picking up the slack.

How to Watch Rangers vs Panthers

Friday’s Winter Classic starts at 8:00 PM ET from loanDepot park in Miami, with TNT carrying the broadcast. It’s the NHL’s first outdoor game in Florida, and the stadium’s retractable roof will open during the game to create a special atmosphere.