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Odds and Best Bets for Giro d’Italia Stage 10 – Oct. 13th

Dave F.

by Dave F. in News

Oct 12, 2020 · 12:38 PM PDT

Diego Ulissi celebrating a stage victory
Diego Ulissi is among the favorites in Tuesday's unique layout to Stage 10 of the Giro d’Italia. Photo by @SFME_Mag (Twitter).
  • Stage 10 of the Giro (Tuesday, October 13) is fairly mild up until a series of short and sharp hills near the end
  • Tuesday’s stage should benefit puncher’s who thrive on short steep climbs
  • Who are the best bets to win Stage 10? See the odds and analysis, below

The variance in this year’s Giro d’Italia route really keeps it interesting. Arnaud Démare has won three sprint stages, while the major mountains have not yet revealed a clear-cut top climber. After an off day on Monday, Stage 10 is not really a sprint or a traditional climb. It is a unique stage set up for a puncher.

The second week of the Giro begins with Joao Almeida holding a 30-second edge on Wilco Kelderman. While the majority of the serious climbing that is likely to decide the pink jersey is backloaded, Stage 10 is hilly and unorthodox.

The table below shows the odds to win Stage 10 on Tuesday (Oct. 13th).

Giro d’Italia Stage 10 Odds

Rider Odds
Diego Ulissi +900
Michael Matthews +1200
Jack Haig +2000
Jhonathan Narvaez +2000
Peter Sagan +2000
Thomas De Gendt +2200
Wilco Kelderman +2200
Ben Swift +2200
Simon Clarke +2500
Jakob Fuglsang +2500
Patrick Konrad +2500
Ruben Guerreiro +2800

Odds as of Oct. 12th at DraftKings.

It seemed like Saturday’s stage would impact the general classification, but it didn’t really. Ruben Guerreiro outlasted Jonathan Castroviejo to win the day. Both were a part of the breakaway. GC contenders didn’t spend a lot of energy on attacks. Wilco Kelderman and Jakob Fuglsang gained a few seconds while Vincenzo Nibali dropped 14 seconds and Steven Kruijswijk lost 21 ticks. Ten riders are within 77 seconds of the lead.

Following Monday’s rest day, Tuesday may be an adventure. The 177-kilometre trek between San Salvo and Tortoreto Lido has several minor climbs and gets interesting with about 40 KMs to go. The end of the race is like a rollercoaster with ramps up to 20% for very short distances followed by incredibly steep descents (over and over again).

The very end of the route is flat. But this is unlikely to be true sprint finish. Who will excel on Tuesday near the Adriatic Sea?


It is a little bit difficult to pick favorites because there just aren’t that many courses set up like this one. It is neither a mountain stage nor a sprint, and who the best punchers are is somewhat unclear.

Odds favor Diego Ulissi, which is reasonable. He has won seven individual stages on the Giro d’Italia including one this year.

Ulissi’s versatility makes him dangerous on Tuesday. He is adept in breakaways, excels with hilly terrain, and is in good form.

While Michael Matthews hasn’t won a grand tour stage since 2017, this is just the type of course that he does his best work on.

Matthews is riding well. He has been among the top-ten three times in the Giro this year. He has won eight career grand tour stages including a pair in Italy.


At the age of 23, this is the second grand tour for Jhonathan Narvaez. He is riding in the Giro for a second straight year.

Narvaez won the Settimana Internazionale Coppi e Bartali this year. In 2017, the Ecuador native took the National Road Race Championships.

Veteran Simon Clarke has won individual stages in the Vuelta a España and took this year’s La Drôme Classic.

Clarke is the type of puncher who could be opportunistic in Stage 10.

It’s not crazy to think that this is Fuglsang’s last great chance to win a grand tour. It is a good sign that he gained some time on Sunday, and on a unique stage, he could again look to gain an advantage.

A two-time winner of the Critérium du Dauphiné, Fuglsang is having a good year. He won the Vuelta a Andalucía
and Giro di Lombardia.

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