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Odds to Win 2020 Nobel Peace Prize – Greta Thunberg Favored, Jacinda Ardern Listed at +170

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in News

Updated May 19, 2020 · 10:42 AM PDT

Greta Thunberg speaking at a forum.
Is Greta Thunberg the best bet to win the 2020 Nobel Peace Prize? Photo by European Parliament (Flickr).
  • Climate activist Greta Thunberg is favored to win the 2020 Nobel Peace Prize
  • Abiy Ahmed won the esteemed award in 2019
  • With deadlines for submissions having already passed, is Thunberg the best bet on the board?

The odds are out for the 2020 Nobel Peace Prize and to no one’s surprise, climate activist Greta Thunberg is favored to win the award at -130. Although she’s the odds-on favorite, is there someone else on the board that’s worth a bet for this prop? Let’s take a closer look.

2020 Nobel Peace Prize Odds

Nominee Odds
Greta Thunberg -130
Jacinda Arden +170
Reporters Without Borders +700
UNHCR +850
Julian Assange +900
The European Union +1200
Donald Trump +1400
Moon Jae-In +1800
Elizabeth Warren +3300
Roberto Firmino +3300
Vladimir Puton +3300
Bill Gates +3300
Christine Lagarde +3500
Emmanuel Macron +3500
Volodymy Zelensky +3500
Boris Johnson +3500
Kristalina Georgieva +3500
Xi Jinping +5000
Michelle Obama +5500
Kin Jong-Un +6600

Odds as of Mar. 24.

Abiy Ahmed Is the Current Nobel Laureate

The 2019 Nobel Peace Price went to Abiy Ahmed, who is from Ethiopia. He has done some extensive work in achieving peace – or at least attempting to – between Ethiopia and their neighboring country, Eritrea. Ahmed is the prime minister of Ethiopia and has been on the job since April of 2018.

Eritrea is located at the northern tip of Ethiopia and in the best of times, should be an important ally or – at the very least – business partner. Their relationship is important because Ethiopia is landlocked whereas Eritrea has access to water as it sits on the Red Sea.

Thunberg Has Garnered Plenty of Press

Greta Thunberg is a teenage climate activist, who has become the face and voice of climate change in the world. While she’s apparently just recovered from the coronavirus, the Swedish environmentalist is going to be one of the best-known names in the field. She has amassed over 4.1 million Twitter followers.

Beyond that, Thunberg has been in the mainstream media multiple times in the last year. She was at the latest United Nations climate summit where she had a brief run-in with United States President Donald Trump. Her reaction to him walking by became a viral meme at the end of 2019.

My main concern about betting on her is that the coronavirus has become the bigger story as of right now. It’s something that’s gripped the globe and is a more pressing matter at this time. What’s working in her favor is that the deadline for this year’s submissions have already passed.

Jacinda Ardern Is Second In Line

New Zealand’s prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, is second in line, according to the odds. That’s a bit of a surprise when you consider the current moment but it is clear why she’s on the board. When there was a horrific terrorist attack in Christchurch, New Zealand, she traveled there in person. Referring to the 49 dead, she said “They are us” in a quote that inspired many.

YouTube video

There’s no question that she’s a strong leader, has helped the country come together and heal, and has been swift to act on gun control. However, I don’t think she’s quite there in terms of a Nobel Peace Prize. Her popularity has dipped recently from about 51% down to 46%, and she could be in for a tight election this year.

She’ll probably win but I would pass on betting her at this point.

What’s the Best Bet?

We’re still pretty early in the process as there are 318 candidates in the running for the Nobel Peace Prize, which includes 211 individuals and 107 organizations. Between now and usually the end of March, a shortlist is released. From there, we’ll have a clearer picture.

At this point, I would bet on Thunberg because she’s the likely winner as of right now. The rest of the options don’t have fantastic cases – or cases that are better than hers. They also don’t have the profile. She’s the best investment at this point.

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