Olympic Baseball Odds, Picks and Schedule – Japan Favored Over USA, Korea
- The abbreviated six-team Olympic baseball tournament will begin July 28 at Japan’s Yokohama Stadium
- Baseball returns to the Olympic Games for the first time since 2008; it was scheduled to return in 2020 before the Games were postponed
- Check out the odds, analysis, and betting predictions below
Baseball will be part of the Olympic program for the sixth time and the first time since 2008, when South Korea beat Cuba in the gold medal game and the United States won the bronze medal after losing to Cuba in the semis. Previous winners South Korea and the U.S. (2000) are in the current six-team field, but three-time champion Cuba failed to qualify.
The six-team Olympic baseball tournament will be played at Yokohama Stadium, with host (and betting favorite) Japan scheduled to meet the Dominican Republic in the first game of the tournament on July 28. The United States will play its first game on July 30 against upstart Israel. The gold-medal game is scheduled for Saturday, August 7.
Olympic Games Baseball Odds
| Team | Odds at FanDuel |
|---|---|
| Japan | +175 |
| South Korea | +300 |
| United States | +350 |
| Mexico | +500 |
| Dominican Republic | +550 |
| Israel | +3000 |
Odds from FanDuel on July 21.
The tournament will begin with round-robin play in two three-team pools. All six teams will advance to the double-elimination knockout stage, with seeding based on group play. The group winners receive a bye into the second game of the knockout round that begins Aug. 1. The gold and bronze medal games scheduled for Aug. 7.
Japan is No. 1 in the current world rankings, with South Korea No. 3 and the U.S. No. 4. Mexico (fifth), the Dominican Republic (seventh) and Israel (24th) round out the field. Japan excels in international play, twice winning the World Baseball Classic.
Japan Is Armed, Dangerous
Shohei Ohtani and Yu Darvish will not be here, but the Japanese remain well-stocked on the mound. Japan has the most accomplished pitcher in the Games in former New York Yankees’ right-hander Masahiro Tanaka, who returned to his home country in 2021 after going 78-46 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 184 appearances in seven seasons with the Yankees.
Tanaka, 32, was the Yankees’ No. 1 starter for much his time in the U.S., and he won at least 11 games in every season except for virus-shortened 2020. He is 4-5 with a 2.86 ERA in 13 games with Rakuten this season after signing a two-year, $8.6 million contract to return to his original Pacific League team.
Right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano would have given Japan the best 1-2 punch in the tournament, but he opted out after originally being named to the 24-man roster. Still, Seibu right-handed reliever Kaima Taira, who has 11 saves, set a new league record for consecutive games from the start of a season without allowing a run.
Tanaka has been on the international stage before. He had a 0.00 ERA in brief relief stints as a 19-year-old in the 2008 Olympics, and he also helped Japan win the 2009 World Baseball Classic and make the semifinals in the 2013 WBC.
The U.S. Brings Old and New
Manager Mike Scioscia has a roster of mostly minor leaguers with a sprinkling of major league free agents, as the U.S. does not permit players who are on a major league team’s 40-man roster to participate. Todd Frazier and Tim Federowicz are leader-types. The Americans, in a pool with South Korea and Israel, look to pull an upset as they did in Sydney in 2000.
Veteran right-hander Edwin Jackson and lefty Scott Kazmir have plenty of major league time; Jackson threw a 149-pitch, eight-walk no-hitter while with Arizona in 2010. He also picked up a win in relief during U.S.A.’s 4-2 victory over Venezuela in the title game of the qualifying round.
Tyler Austin, who spent parts of four years in the majors before going to Japan in 2020, might be the U.S.’s not-so-secret weapon. He is slashing .348/.447/.662 with 17 home runs and 44 RBIs for Yokohama this season, and he also brings a current knowledge of the Japanese pitching staff.
Boston first base prospect Triston Casas, 21, hit .400 with three RBIs to help the U.S. to a 4-0 record in the qualifying round. Casas, 6’4 and 250 pounds, was the Red Sox’s first-round pick in the 2018 draft.
South Korea Forced into a Roster Re-do
The South Koreans will be without the ace of the 2008 Olympics, Toronto Blue Jays’ left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, who won two games and capped South Korea’s 9-0 run with a 3-2 victory over Cuba in the gold medal game. But they do have a holdover from that staff in 39-year old closer Seung-hwan Oh.
Oh, a recent addition after two players were removed because of COVID-19 issues, has a Korean Baseball Organization-record 322 career saves, and he had 42 saves with St. Louis, Toronto and Colorado in the majors from 2016-19. Oh has a league-high 27 saves this season, and he had a win and a save in the 2008 Olympics.
First baseman/DH Kang Baek-ho is among Korea’s best offensive players. He finished the first half of the KBO season with a league-leading .395 batting average, a .492 on-base percentage, 61 RBIs, and a .579 slugging percentage.
The Rest of the Field
Mexico will send former major leaguers Adrian Gonzalez, Fernando Salas, and Oliver Perez to the Games although pitchers Hector Velazquez and Sammy Solis tested positive for COVID-19 earlier this week and were in isolation, status pending.
Adrian Gonzalez, wow HAVENT heard that name in forever @casteel_adam https://t.co/9YrryKlqnw
— Cade Gantt (@cgantt31) July 22, 2021
The Dominican Republic will feature veteran major leaguers Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista and Emilio Bonifacio and Seattle outfielder Julio Rodriguez, Baseball America’s No. 3 overall minor league prospect.
Rising Israel beat No. 8 Netherlands in the 2019 Africa/Europe qualifying tournament to make it first Olympics following a successful run at the 2017 World Baseball Classic, where it beat South Korea.
None of these teams have the roster depth to compete with the big three, although in a short series many things are possible — errors, bloops, bad hops, bad calls.
Pitching wins, and that’s where the smart money should lie, especially when it pays more than even money on a team that a) is at home and b) thrives on the international stage.
The Pick: Japan (+175)
Jack has covered college and professional sports for various Arizona media outlets since the 1980s and has written for the Associated Press, USA Today and Baseball America, among others. He staffed the 2015-17 World Series and has staffed four Super Bowls.
