Germany vs France Prediction, Props & Odds for Olympic Hockey Qualifier (Feb. 17)

• I’ve made my Germany vs France prediction for Tuesday’s knockout stage matchup at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena
• Germany is a massive -800 moneyline favorite, but France has been outscored 20-5 through three group stage games
• See my Germany vs France prediction, prop bets and odds below for Tuesday’s Olympic qualifier

Win or go home. That’s the reality facing Germany (1-2-0) and France (0-3-0) as they clash in the qualification playoff round of the 2026 Winter Olympics men’s hockey tournament Tuesday morning in Milan.

The winner books a quarterfinal date with Slovakia, while the loser packs their bags. Online sportsbooks aren’t giving France much of a chance, listing Germany as an overwhelming -800 favorite in the Olympic Men’s Hockey odds.

Puck drop is set for 6:10 am ET from the Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena. You can catch the game on USA Network and Peacock.

Here are my Germany vs France prediction and picks, along with the latest odds for Tuesday’s Olympic qualifier.

Germany vs France Prediction

• Germany -2.5 (-140 at Caesars)

CAESARS SPORTSBOOK

Get a Bet Match Up To $250 When You Place Your First Bet!

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD250BM

CODE: SBD250BM

SIGNUP PROMO

BET MATCH
UP TO $250

CLAIM OFFER

Germany didn’t look great down the stretch in group play. After a solid 3-1 win over Denmark to open the tournament, the Germans dropped a 4-3 upset loss to Latvia before getting thumped 5-1 by the United States in their final preliminary game.

But that poor showing against the Americans might actually work in Germany’s favor here. This is a team loaded with elite talent in Leon Draisaitl, Tim Stutzle, JJ Peterka and Moritz Seider — guys who know that performance was nowhere near their standard. I expect them to come out with a serious edge in a do-or-die game against a far weaker opponent.

France, on the other hand, has been overmatched all tournament. The French have been outscored 20-5 through three games, losing to Switzerland 4-0, Czechia 6-3 and Canada 10-2. They haven’t covered the +2.5 spread in a single game, losing each one by at least three goals.

Germany vs France Group Stage Stats

The talent gap between these two sides is enormous. France has just one current NHL player on its roster in Alexandre Texier, who’s a middle-six forward. Compare that to Germany’s top four of Draisaitl, Stutzle, Peterka and Seider, and you can see why the moneyline sits at -800.

Stutzle has been the most dangerous scorer on Team Germany, tying Canada’s Macklin Celebrini for the tournament lead with four goals through three games. Draisaitl has chipped in a goal and two assists, but we all know the Edmonton Oilers superstar is capable of far more. If there was ever a matchup for him to explode, it’s this one.

Germany also holds the goaltending edge with Philipp Grubauer expected back in net. He ranks third among NHL goaltenders in Goals Saved Above Expected per start, and France was held to 14 shots or fewer in two of its three group games. I don’t see the French generating enough quality chances to stay within two goals.

Give me Germany -2.5 at -140 odds. I’m modeling this one around a 5-1 final, which clears the spread with room to spare.

Germany vs France Prop Bets

• Tim Stutzle Anytime Goal (-120 at Caesars)

The Ottawa Senators forward has been Germany’s best player by a mile, potting four goals through three group stage games to tie for the tournament lead. We just watched the other co-leader, Canada’s Celebrini, go off for two goals against France over the weekend.

I expect Stutzle to do the same. Despite his hot streak, his anytime goal odds are actually much longer than Draisaitl’s -182, which gives us solid value. Against a French defense that’s given up 20 goals in three games, Stutzle should have plenty of room to operate.

• Moritz Seider Over 4.5 Shots on Goal (+110 at DraftKings)

Seider logged more than 27 minutes against the USA and racked up 11 shots through three group stage games, tying for second on Team Germany. That’s an average of nearly four shots per game against legitimate competition.

France has been outshot badly all tournament, held to 14 shots or fewer in two of three games. The Detroit Red Wings blueliner should have all kinds of room to jump into the rush and fire pucks on net. I expect Seider to comfortably clear 4.5 shots at plus money.

• Louis Boudon Anytime Goal (+360 at Caesars)

If you want a longshot on the French side, Boudon is the guy. He leads France with two goals and three points through the group stage, including back-to-back tallies against Czechia that briefly had the French ahead 3-2. He’s shown he can finish when he gets opportunities, and at +360 odds, I’ll take a small flier.

Germany vs France Odds

There’s no value on the Germany moneyline at -800 — you’d need to wager $800 just to profit $100. That’s why the puck line at -2.5 (-140) is the better play, giving you a much more reasonable price for what should be a comfortable German win.

The total is set at 6.5 goals with both sides priced at -110 at Caesars. I can see the case for the Over given Germany’s firepower, but the Under is my lean given Grubauer’s ability to shut the door on France’s limited attack.

Germany’s first period line is also worth a look at -0.5 (-150). The Germans should come out firing after that embarrassing showing against the Americans, and France has faded as the games wear on throughout the tournament.

CAESARS SPORTSBOOK

Get a Bet Match Up To $250 When You Place Your First Bet!

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD250BM

CODE: SBD250BM

SIGNUP PROMO

BET MATCH
UP TO $250

CLAIM OFFER

Odds as of Feb. 16 at Caesars. Check out SBD’s Caesars Sportsbook review to see the available sign-up bonuses.

Germany vs France How to Watch

Puck drop is set for 6:10 am ET (3:10 am PT) Tuesday from Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. In the United States, you can watch on USA Network or stream it on Peacock. Canadian viewers can tune in via CBC, SN or TSN.

The winner advances to face Slovakia in the quarterfinals on Wednesday.