Opening USA vs Canada Odds: Olympic Women’s Hockey Gold Medal Game Preview

• USA vs Canada odds have been released for Thursday’s Olympic women’s hockey gold medal game
• Team USA is a massive favorite after a historic 31-1 goal differential through six games
• See below for USA vs Canada gold medal odds, each team’s path to the final, and projected line movement

The biggest game in women’s hockey is set. Team USA and Canada will meet for the seventh time in an Olympic gold medal game on Thursday, February 19, at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. Puck drop is at 1:10 pm ET, with USA Network and Peacock carrying the broadcast in the United States and CBC in Canada.

The Americans already blew out Canada 5-0 in the preliminary round, the first Olympic shutout in 41 meetings between these teams, and oddsmakers expect more of the same. FanDuel has Team USA as a massive moneyline favorite, the kind of price you rarely see in a gold medal game.

Here’s a look at the opening USA vs Canada odds for Thursday’s gold medal showdown.

USA vs Canada Odds – Olympic Gold Medal Game

USA’s -410 moneyline translates to roughly an 80% implied win probability. Canada at +315 means a $100 bet would net $315 in profit if the Canadians pull off the upset. The puck line is set at 1.5 goals, and the total sits at 5.5 with the under juiced at -132.

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Odds as of February 16 at FanDuel. New customers can claim the FanDuel promo code and get a bonus to bet on the Olympics.

Team USA’s Run to the Final

Calling this tournament run dominant almost doesn’t do it justice. Team USA has gone 6-0 with a 31-1 goal differential, rolling off five consecutive shutouts after allowing one goal in the opener against Czechia. That scoreless streak has surpassed 331 consecutive minutes, an Olympic record.

Team USA 2026 Olympic Results

Defenseman Caroline Harvey leads all skaters with 9 points (2G, 7A) and a ridiculous +14 rating, a new U.S. Olympic record for points by a defender. Three of Team USA’s top four scorers are blueliners (Harvey, Megan Keller with 7 points and Laila Edwards with 7 points), which says a lot about coach John Wroblewski’s system.

Hannah Bilka has 4 goals including two in the 5-0 rout of Canada, while Alex Carpenter has 6 points with 2 power-play goals. 19 of 20 skaters have registered at least one point. Captain Hilary Knight, playing in her record fifth Olympics at age 36, needs one more goal to break the all-time U.S. Olympic record.

Aerin Frankel has been the best goaltender in the tournament. She’s started four games, posted three shutouts, and carries a .978 save percentage with a 0.33 GAA. The penalty kill has been perfect — 100% on all shorthanded situations.

Canada’s Path to the Final

Canada’s road has been far rockier, but this program knows how to grind its way to a gold medal game. They’ve reached every Olympic final since women’s hockey debuted in 1998 — eight straight.

Things went sideways on February 9 when captain Marie-Philip Poulin suffered a right knee injury against Czechia. Without her the following day, Canada got demolished 5-0 by Team USA. It was their first-ever Olympic shutout loss and their most lopsided defeat in Olympic history.

Canada 2026 Olympic Results

Poulin came back for the quarterfinal against Germany and scored her record-tying 18th career Olympic goal. Then in Monday’s semifinal against Switzerland, she scored both goals in a 2-1 win, pushing her total to 20 career Olympic goals and surpassing Hayley Wickenheiser’s all-time mark.

“Captain Clutch” has scored in every Olympic gold medal game she’s played. If there’s one player who can flip this rivalry on its head Thursday, it’s the 34-year-old.

Sarah Fillier (6 points) and Daryl Watts (2G, 4A) have carried the offense alongside Poulin, while Julia Gosling has added 3 goals. Ann-Renée Desbiens is expected to start in goal. Canada outshot Switzerland 46-8 in the semifinal but will need to convert at a much higher rate against Frankel.

USA vs Canada Rivalry History

This is the greatest rivalry in women’s team sports. The two countries have won all 31 combined Olympic and World Championship gold medals ever awarded in women’s hockey. Canada owns five Olympic golds to Team USA’s two, and the all-time series sits at 106-86 in Canada’s favor.

But the Americans have won seven consecutive games against Canada dating back to the 2025 World Championship, including a 4-0 sweep of the pre-Olympic Rivalry Series where they outscored the Canadians 24-7.

Recent USA vs Canada Olympic Gold Medal Games

That chart is the reason you should think twice before laying -410. Four of the last five Olympic gold medal games between these teams were decided by one goal. The prelim round was a blowout, but finals between USA and Canada play out differently.

Canada won three of the last four Olympic golds before this tournament, and betting against Poulin in a final has been a losing proposition. She’s scored the game-winning goal in three separate Olympic gold medal games.

Projected USA vs Canada Odds Movement

I expect this line to move before Thursday. The -410 price on Team USA is already steep, and the public is going to pile on after watching the Americans roll through this tournament. We could see that moneyline climb toward -450 or higher by game time.

The more interesting play might be on the total. The 5.5 goal number with the under at -132 lines up with the history of tight gold medal games between these two. Frankel’s .978 save percentage and that perfect penalty kill back it up.

If you’re thinking about taking Canada, you might want to wait. The +315 price could get even better if public money keeps pushing USA’s line higher. On the flip side, if Poulin’s knee is worse than what we saw Monday, that number could shrink fast.

We’ll have our full USA vs Canada gold medal prediction closer to game time. In the meantime, we’ll be watching the odds to see if any injury update or sharp money impacts the market.