Slovakia vs Germany Prediction, Best Bets & Odds – Men’s Olympic Hockey

• Germany is a -115 moneyline favorite over Slovakia in Men’s Olympic Hockey Quarterfinal action
• Leon Draisaitl leads all skaters with 17 scoring chances so far
• See my Slovakia vs Germany prediction and best bets, plus the latest odds for Men’s Olympic Hockey

We’ve reached the quarterfinal stage of the Men’s Olympic Hockey, with Slovakia and Germany set to square off on Wednesday for a spot in the semis.

Slovakia shocked everyone by finishing ahead of hockey superpowers Finland and Sweden to win Group B, but online sportsbooks expect their Cinderella run to come to an end. They’ve pegged the Germans as small moneyline favorites, and I’ll be backing Leon Draisaitl and Co. in my Slovakia vs Germany prediction.

Puck drop is set for 6:10 am ET from the Milano Santagiulia Arena, and it will mark the first of four quarterfinal matchups on Wednesday.

Slovakia vs Germany Prediction

• Germany moneyline (-115 at Bet365)

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There’s no question that Slovakia is the biggest surprise of the tournament so far, but there’s plenty of data to suggest it’s not sustainable. For starters, they emerged from the toughest group by posting just a +2 goal differential. Compare that to Finland and Sweden, who boast a +11 and +6 goal differential respectively.

The Slovaks generated only 95 shots on goal through three games, which was significantly less than both Finland and Sweden, as well as other medal contenders like Canada and the USA. They produced fewer high danger scoring chances than six of the other seven quarterfinal teams, and posted poor puck possession stats.

Only France, Italy and Latvia had a lower Corsi For % than Slovakia during the round robin. The Slovaks were bailed out repeatedly by their goaltending, but they can’t continue to give up as many quality scoring chances as they have and get away with it. Slovakia is yielding an average of 18.3 slot shots per game, more than any other quarterfinal team.

Slovakia vs Germany Stats

Offensively, they’ll need a big showing from Juraj Slafkovsky, who leads the team in points, slot shots and scoring chances. Outside of the Montreal Canadiens star, only Adam Ruzicka and Dalibor Dvorsky have scored more than once, and the trio have accounted for 60% of the Slovakia goals.

The Germans, meanwhile, have been one of the stingier defensive teams of the tournament, yielding less than 3 goals per game. They’re allowing fewer high-danger scoring chances and boast better puck possession stats than the Slovaks, and have gotten excellent goaltending from Philipp Grubauer. The Seattle Kraken netminder owns a 2.03 GAA through three starts, and a sparkling .934 save percentage.

Samuel Hlavaj vs Philipp Grubauer Olympic Stats

Offensively, the line of Draisaitl, Tim Stutzle and JJ Peterka is as dangerous as any in the tournament. The trio have combined for 16 points so far, with Draisaitl becoming for the first German to ever record a 3-point game at the Olympics on Tuesday.

I trust them much more than anyone on Slovakia to generate offense, and I expect the Slovaks poor defensive coverage to come back to bite them. Also working in favor of the Germans is a more disciplined style of play. They’ve been penalized six fewer times than Slovakia so far, despite playing one more game.

Germany is 2-0 all-time versus Slovakia at the Olympics, and I’m betting they take them down again on Wednesday en route to the semifinal.

Slovakia vs Germany Best Bets

• Leon Draisaitl Anytime Goal (+115 at Bet365)

Back to Draisaitl, who’s my favorite anytime goal bet. The former winner in the Hart Trophy odds has generated the most scoring chances of anyone in the Olympics so far, and also boasts a tournament-best 15 slot shots.

He’s managed to score on just 11% of his shots on goal, however, which is well below his NHL baseline. Draisaitl has an 18% shooting percentage with Edmonton this season, and has posted a shooting percentage north of 21% twice in the last five years. Positive regression is coming his way, and I’ll gladly take +115 odds on it happening against the Slovaks.

Slovakia vs Germany Odds

Odds as of Feb. 17 at Bet365. Check out SBD’s Bet365 bonus code to bet on Olympic hockey this week.

As of Tuesday night, the best place to bet the German moneyline is at Bet365. They’re currently offering a -115 line, while most other books are at least 10 cents higher. Slovakia, meanwhile, comes back at -105 on the moneyline, but I’ve seen plus-money odds on that market if you’re willing to shop around.

Total-wise, the over/under sits at 5.5, a number that only one of Slovakia’s three games so far has exceeded.