Slovakia vs Italy Prediction, Props & Odds for 2026 Olympics Men’s Hockey (Feb. 13)

• I’ve made my Slovakia vs Italy prediction for Friday’s Olympic men’s hockey Group B matchup in Milan
• Slovakia stunned Finland 4-1 in their opener behind a three-point game from Juraj Slafkovsky
• See my Slovakia vs Italy prediction and picks below, plus the latest odds, props and start time for Friday morning

Slovakia already pulled off the biggest surprise of the tournament. Now the question is whether they can back it up against host nation Italy at Rho Arena on Friday morning.

The Slovaks (1-0) stunned Finland 4-1 in their opener behind a three-point game from Juraj Slafkovsky and 39 saves from Samuel Hlavaj. Italy (0-1) lost 5-2 to Sweden but hung tough through two periods, drawing level at 2-2 before the Swedes pulled away in the third.

Puck drop is 6:10 am ET on Peacock and Sportsnet. Here are my Slovakia vs Italy prediction and picks, plus the latest odds and goalscorer props.

Slovakia vs Italy Prediction

• Slovakia -3.5 (+124 at DraftKings)

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I’m taking Slovakia to cover 3.5 goals at plus money for my Thursday Olympic prediction. The moneyline is way too juiced at -1400, but getting +124 on the puck line feels like the sweet spot for this one.

Slovakia has seven NHL players on this roster. Italy has zero. That gap didn’t fully show up in the Sweden game because Damian Clara was putting on a clinic in net with 46 saves, but Clara left in the third period with an apparent injury, and his status for Friday is uncertain.

If he can’t go, backup Davide Fadani gets the start. Fadani made nine saves on 10 shots in relief, but that’s a small sample against a tired Swedish team that already had the game in hand.

Slafkovsky looked like a man possessed against Finland. He already has nine career Olympic goals at age 21, trailing only Marian Hossa (14) and Miroslav Satan (10) on Slovakia’s all-time list. Dalibor Dvorsky chipped in a goal and an assist, while Tomas Tatar picked up a helper on the top line.

I respect that Slovakia isn’t overlooking anyone, but the talent difference is real. Slovakia outshot Finland 25-40 and still won 4-1 because they were clinical in front of the net. Italy managed just 22 shots against Sweden. If Hlavaj is anywhere near his opener, where he posted a 97.5% save rate, Italy is going to have a tough time finding the net.

Goal difference matters in this group, too. Both Slovakia and Sweden sit at +3 after the first round, so a blowout win here would go a long way toward securing a direct quarterfinal spot. Slovakia has every reason to pour it on.

Slovakia vs Italy Props

Anytime Goalscorer & Points Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

The props market is where I’ve found the best value for this game. Slafkovsky’s 1+ point line is -530, so the books already expect him to produce. His 2+ points at +104 is much more interesting. I’m going with three Slovakia vs Italy prop picks that I’ve broken down below.

Best Slovakia vs Italy Prop Bets

• Juraj Slafkovsky 2+ Points (+104 at FanDuel)

Slafkovsky had three points against Finland and plays on Slovakia’s top line and first power play unit. Italy allowed five goals to Sweden, and their penalty kill is 0% through one game. Slovakia converted on half of their power plays in the opener.

If Slovakia gets to four or five goals, Slafkovsky is going to be involved in at least two of them. At plus money, this pairs nicely with my Slovakia -3.5 pick.

• Dalibor Dvorsky Anytime Goal (+145 at FanDuel)

Dvorsky scored against Finland and chipped in an assist on one of Slafkovsky’s goals. The 20-year-old St. Louis Blues forward plays on a scoring line with Libor Hudacek and gets power play reps.

Against an Italian penalty kill that went 0-for-2 in their opener, Dvorsky has a real shot on special teams. He’s priced well below Slafkovsky too, which makes +145 a nice number.

• Simon Nemec 2+ Points (+168 at FanDuel)

Nemec runs Slovakia’s top power play from the blue line. Italy is going to pack it in defensively, which means more point shots and secondary assists for the guy quarterbacking the top unit.

If Slovakia scores five-plus, the blue-line points pile up quickly. Nemec’s 1+ point line is -330, so the books expect production. I like +168 on a multi-point game.

Slovakia vs Italy Odds

Odds as of Feb. 12 via FanDuel. Check out SBD’s FanDuel promo code to bet on the 2026 Winter Olympics.

Slovakia’s -1400 moneyline translates to roughly a 93% implied probability of winning. You’d need to wager $1,400 just to win $100, which isn’t worth it for a team running an AHL goalie. Italy’s +800 puts their implied win probability around 11%, and while that feels about right, the Italians showed against Sweden that they can at least keep things interesting for two periods.

The puck line is where I’m betting. Slovakia -1.5 is heavy at -355, but -3.5 at +124 offers plus money if the Slovaks win by four or more. On the other side, Italy +1.5 at +270 is a longshot parlay piece if you think they can stay within a goal.

The total is set at 5.5 with the over juiced at -138. Both opening games in this group produced at least five goals, so the books are expecting offense. But my focus is on the spread.

Slovakia vs Italy Start Time

Puck drop is set for 6:10 am ET from Rho Arena in Milan, Italy. You can stream the game on Peacock in the U.S. and Sportsnet in Canada. Italy is the only team in the tournament without an NHL player on its roster, but the home crowd will be behind them for this one.