Sweden vs Latvia Odds, Pick & Prediction – Olympic Hockey Qualifying Round

• Sweden meets Latvia in the Qualifying Round of the 2026 Olympic ice hockey tournament, with the winner facing Team USA.
• Sweden is favored, but the spread varies depending on the sportsbook.
• Check out my Sweden vs Latvia prediction and pick, plus a look at the different odds for Tuesday, Feb. 17.

Considered a gold medal favorite, Sweden has to get by Latvia to advance to the knockout round of the Olympic ice hockey tournament this afternoon at Santagiulia Arena. Faceoff is at 3:10 p.m. with the game on Peacock.

BetMGM has the Swedes as a 3.5-goal favorite, but that’s the highest number on the board. Team Sweden has a lineup full of NHL players, but Latvia has been spunky in the round-robin stages.

The winner gets Team USA on Wednesday. I’ve got a Sweden vs Latvia pick for you today.

Sweden vs Latvia Odds

Odds as of Feb. 17 at BetMGM. Check out SBD’s BetMGM bonus code to bet on Olympic hockey.

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My friends, I swear this is pretty usual in the world of sports betting. You really have to think about this before making a wager. BetMGM has Team Sweden as 3.5-goal favorites at +130, DraftKings has Sweden as 2.5-goal favorites at -175, and FanDuel thinks it’s even closer, with Team Sweden a 1.5-goal favorite at -355.

Sweden was the odd man out in its group. Three teams — Finland, Sweden, and Slovakia — all finished with six points, but Slovakia got the automatic spot in the quarterfinals based on goal differential (even though Sweden beat them 5-3) and so did Finland.

That left the Swedes in this spot, needing to win just to get into the quarterfinals. That’s not good for Team USA. Meanwhile, Team Canada has the No. 1 seed in the quarterfinals and will get a breather over either Czechia or Denmark Wednesday.

Sweden vs Latvia Pick

• Sweden -2.5 (-175 at DraftKings)

• Over 6.5 goals (+120 at DraftKings)

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It’s not so much who to pick, but by how much. Sweden has too much firepower for Team Latvia, but is it a blowout? If so, then ride with BetMGM and -3.5. If it’s close, stick with FanDuel and -1.5.

I’m splitting the difference on my Sweden vs Latvia pick. Latvia’s strength is in net, where they have a pair of NHL goalies in Elvis Merzlikins (Columbus) and Arturs Silovs (Pittsburgh), so I don’t see this as a runaway. Latvian forward Dans Locmelis (Bruins) has been their best offensive threat with two goals in their win over Germany. That was Latvia’s first Olympic win since 2018. It came with Silovs in net.

Latvia couldn’t keep it going next time out against Denmark, giving up a goal 23 seconds in and losing 4-2.

Sweden vs Latvia Prediction

This feels like a game where Sweden controls the puck a lot. They had 60 shots in a 5-2 win over Italy, the most for any Olympic hockey team with pros. The Swedes have Gabriel Landeskog (Colorado) and Filip Forsberg (Nashville), plus a pair of NHL goalies in Filip Gustavsson (Minnesota) and Jacob Markstrom (New Jersey).

The Swedes don’t have a team with many NHL All-Stars, but they’re all elite players. Latvia just can’t match that kind of depth on the second and third lines. I’m also loving the over bet here for multiple reasons.

The biggest is that this is a win-or-go-home situation, so who cares if you lose by two or four goals? My Sweden vs Latvia prediction is that Sweden takes a two-goal lead late and gets another on an empty-netter to win 6-3.