USA vs Canada Prediction, Best Bets & Odds for Women’s Olympic Gold Medal Game (Feb. 19)

• Team USA is a -550 favorite over Canada in Thursday’s Olympic women’s hockey gold medal game
• The Americans have won seven straight against Canada, including a 5-0 shutout in the preliminary round
• Keep reading for my USA vs Canada prediction and best bets, plus updated odds for the gold medal game

It’s the game women’s hockey was built for. Team USA (6-0) and Canada (5-1) meet Thursday in Milan for the Olympic gold medal, the seventh time these rivals have faced off for the title since the sport debuted in 1998.

The Americans have dominated this rivalry recently, riding a seven-game winning streak that includes a 5-0 blowout in the preliminary round. Online sportsbooks have made Team USA a massive favorite, with the line climbing even further since opening earlier this week.

Puck drop is set for 1:10 pm ET from Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena. Here’s my USA vs Canada prediction and best bets for Thursday’s gold medal game.

USA vs Canada Prediction

• Under 5.5 Goals (-140 at FanDuel)

I know what you’re thinking. Team USA has scored at least five goals in all six games this tournament, outscoring opponents 31-1 with a record-setting shutout streak that stretched past 331 minutes. Why on earth would I bet the under?

Because gold medal games between these two don’t play out like preliminary round blowouts. Four of the last five Olympic finals between USA and Canada were decided by a single goal. Three of those finished 3-2. This rivalry tightens up when the stakes are highest, and Thursday will be no different.

On the American side, Aerin Frankel has been a brick wall. Her .985 save percentage in this tournament is absurd, and she enters Thursday on a five-game shutout streak. Canada will likely end that streak, but I don’t expect them to light her up.

Ann-Renée Desbiens holds the best save percentage in the PWHL this season at .954. She was pulled after two periods in the preliminary round loss, but that had more to do with the defensive breakdowns in front of her. If Canada tightens up structurally, Desbiens is capable of keeping this close.

My USA vs Canada prediction is under 5.5 goals. I’m modeling something in the range of a 3-1 or 3-2 final, which is right in line with how these gold medal games have historically played out.

USA vs Canada Best Bets

• Canada +1.5 (+142 at FanDuel)

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This is where the value lives for my USA vs Canada best bet. The +1.5 puck line at plus money on Canada is too good to pass up given the history of this rivalry.

The market has overcorrected based on the preliminary round beatdown and the Americans’ historic run. Before this tournament, the USA opened around -150 to -190 to win gold. Now they’re sitting at -550. That’s a massive swing for a sport where a hot goaltender can steal any single game.

Canada doesn’t need to win for this bet to cash. They just need to lose by one or win outright. Given that four of the last five Olympic finals between these teams have been decided by a single goal, getting plus money on Canada +1.5 feels like a gift.

I’m not calling for a Canadian upset. Team USA has been the better team all year, sweeping the four-game Rivalry Series by a combined 24-7 margin before rolling through this tournament. But gold medal games bring out a different level of desperation, and Canada’s veteran core knows how to grind out tight games on this stage.

The X-factor is Marie-Philip Poulin. Canada’s captain missed the 5-0 preliminary-round loss with a lower-body injury, and the team has looked like a completely different squad since getting her back. Poulin scored both goals in the 2-1 semifinal win over Switzerland, pushing her career Olympic total to 20 and breaking Hayley Wickenheiser’s all-time record.

She may not be fully healthy, but “Captain Clutch” has scored the game-winning goal in three separate Olympic finals. Good luck fading that resume at plus money.

USA vs Canada Odds

Odds as of Feb. 18 at FanDuel. Check out the FanDuel promo code for new customers looking to bet on the gold medal game.

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The USA vs Canada odds have shifted considerably since opening. Team USA’s moneyline has moved from -410 to -550, while Canada has drifted from +315 to +400. The puck line has also jumped from 1.5 (-150) to 1.5 (-178), with public money continuing to pile on the Americans.

That line movement has actually created more value on the Canada side. The +1.5 puck line opened at +122 and now sits at +142, which is a significant bump for a gold medal game that history says will be close.

The 60-minute three-way line has USA at -290, Canada at +650, and the draw at +410. If you think this game will go to overtime, the +410 draw price is another way to play the “tight game” angle without backing Canada outright.

USA vs Canada Start Time

Puck drop for the USA vs Canada gold medal game is 1:10 pm ET (10:10 am PT) Thursday from Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. The game airs on USA Network and streams on Peacock in the United States. Canadian viewers can watch on CBC and CBC Gem.

This is the seventh Olympic gold medal meeting between these rivals, with Canada holding a 4-2 edge all-time. Hilary Knight will tie Hayley Wickenheiser and Jayna Hefford for the most Olympic medals in women’s hockey history with five, win or lose.