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Picking Ponies – 2016 Preakness Props

On Saturday afternoon, Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore will host the second jewel of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes.

The Kentucky Derby, a.k.a. the “Run for the Roses,” epitomizes the elegance and the pomp and circumstance of horse racing. Watching the three hours of build-up to the race, you get a pretty good idea where the nickname “Sport of Kings” came from.

The environment at Pimlico is a little different and a lot more like Spring Break. (Think fewer fascinators and more flashers.) If you trained a camera on the infield for the day, you’d end up with something like an episode of Jersey Shore.

But that doesn’t matter when it comes to the action on the track. Horses don’t care if they’re being cheered by the distinguished or the depraved. When they leave the gates on Saturday, Derby-winner Nyquist will be the betting favorite, while runner-up Exaggerator will also be well supported.

However, a win in the Preakness won’t give Nyquist trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Mario Gutierrez much comfort. The last time the pair won at Churchill Downs, their colt, I’ll Have Another, took the Preakness, too, but then scratched from the Belmont Stakes with an injury.

Are we going to see something similar this weekend? Let’s look at all the odds for what’s sure to be a wild weekend, fueled by way too many Black-Eyed Susans.

2016 Preakness/Triple Crown Odds

Racing Odds

Odds to win the Preakness:

Photo credit: Vimeo (https://vimeo.com/133227747)
Photo credit: Vimeo (https://vimeo.com/133227747)
  • Nyquist: 3/5
  • Exaggerator: 9/2
  • Stradivari: 9/1
  • Cherry Wine: 20/1
  • Collected: 25/1
  • Fellowship: 38/1
  • Uncle Lino: 38/1
  • Abiding Star: 45/1
  • Awesome Speed: 50/1
  • Laoban: 50/1
  • Lani: 50/1

Over/under on Nyquist’s Preakness odds at post-time: 2/5

Over/under on Nyquist’s margin of victory in the Preakness: two lengths

Odds the Preakness winner will break Secretariat’s record time of 1:53: 35/1

Odds Nyquist will win the Triple Crown: 2/1

Odds Nyquist wins the Preakness but doesn’t start the Belmont: 30/1

Odds the Preakness winner will be named Horse of the Year for the third straight year (California Chrome, 2014; American Pharoah, 2015): 3/2

Odds the Preakness will be won by a horse that did not run in the Kentucky Derby: 17/3

TV Broadcast Odds

Over/under on the number of times I’ll Have Another will be mentioned during NBC’s Preakness broadcast: 5

Over/under on the number of NBC personalities who will pick against Nyquist in the Preakness: 1.5

Over/under on the number of times NBC announcers will mention that Nyquist was named after Detroit Red Wing Gustav Nyquist: 3

Over/under on the number of jockeys who’ll have corporate advertising on their silks/pants/hats/boots: 3.5

Pimlico Debauchery Odds

Over/under on the number of fights in the Pimlico infield on the day of the Preakness: 12

Over/under on the number of kegs consumed in the Pimlico infield on the day of the Preakness: 1,000

Over/under on the number of people arrested in the Pimlico infield on the day of the Preakness: 3.5

Over/under on the number of people who will successfully complete the “toilet run” on the day of the Preakness: 10

Preakness/Political Props

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Photo credit: Michael Vadon [CC BY-SA 4.0 (creativecommons.org/ licenses/by-sa/4.0)]
Odds of a Nyquist/Donald Trump exacta (Nyquist wins the Preakness and Trump wins the 2016 presidential election): 2/1

Odds of a Nyquist/Hillary Clinton exacta (Nyquist wins the Preakness and Clinton wins the 2016 presidential election): 1/1

Odds of a Nyquist/Trump trifecta (Nyquist wins the Triple Crown and Trump wins the 2016 presidential election): 6/1

Odds of a Nyquist/Clinton trifecta (Nyquist wins the Triple Crown and Clinton wins the 2016 presidential election): 7/2 [The original post accidentally listed this at 7/5.]

Odds Nyquist’s margin of victory (in lengths) is greater than the winner’s margin of victory (popular vote) in the 2016 presidential election: 100/1

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