Political Odds – Neck and Neck Race Up North

The Canadian national election is just days away and polls show a complete lack of clarity. The Liberals – and their dashing young leader, Justin Trudeau – appear to have “Big Mo” on their side, but uncertainty has been the only constant in this election cycle.

As we look at the latest odds and probabilities, let’s be clear, come Monday night, the Toronto Blue Jays will be the only recipient of unified national support.

2015 Canadian National Election Odds

Odds to win the election:
Liberal Party: 20/23
Conservative Party: 21/20
NDP: 15/1

Two months ago, the NDP was favored; but things have changed drastically. It now appears to be a two-horse race between the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party. Once considered a bit of a long shot, Justin Trudeau and the Liberals have enjoyed a late surge and are now a slight favorite.

Odds of winning a majority:
Liberal Party: 6/1
Conservative Party: 7/1
NDP: 30/1

A majority remains unlikely with three parties maintaining significant support. Conservatives hope their get-out-the-vote efforts will lead to better results than polls indicate, while Liberals hope their momentum intensifies through election day. In the end, the floundering campaign of the NDP will likely garner enough support to prevent a majority.

Odds of the NDP and Liberals forming a coalition: 12/1

Trudeau and Thomas Mulcair have frequently traded verbal jabs as their campaigns have moved in opposite directions. A coalition appears less likely than at any point in the cycle.

Over/Under length of time in office for winning PM: 4.5 years

Canadian politics are as complicated and as divided as ever before. The next PM will face enormous challenges and opposition at every turn.

Odds Harper run again if he loses: 5/1

Prime Minister Harper’s days are likely numbered. Even if the Conservatives win a minority, he will be under pressure to resign.

Odds the Liberals legalize marijuana this term: 15/1

The Liberal platform supports the removal of pot use and possession from the Criminal Code. Garnering enough national support to make this a reality of the next term … a long shot at best.

Odds Liberals will legalize brothels this term: 500/1

An opposition ad campaign claimed that legalized prostitution is part of the Liberal agenda. But it was never actually introduced as a serious proposal. Canada’s social values will have to change and many more NBA stars will have to immigrate before this is a serious discussion.

Odds of wearing a niqab while taking the oath of office:

Justin Trudeau: 1,000/1 … much better odds in a social media post.
Tom Mulcair: 10,000/1 … no way he’s covering up that beautiful beard.

Odds the Blue Jays win Game 3 of the ALCS (which takes place on election day) AND … 

the Liberals win election: 5/2
the Conservatives win election: 3/1
the NDP wins election: 25/1