2026 Autotrader 400 Kalshi Predictions: Odds, Picks & Best Trades at Atlanta

• Chase Elliott leads the Kalshi prediction market at 10% implied probability for the 2026 Autotrader 400
• EchoPark Speedway plays like a mini superspeedway with pack racing and drafting since its 2022 reconfiguration
• Keep reading for Autotrader 400 Kalshi predictions, odds, and longshot picks

The NASCAR Cup Series heads from Daytona to EchoPark Speedway in Hampton, Georgia, for the Autotrader 400 this Sunday, February 22. The green flag drops at 3:00 p.m. ET on FOX.

Beyond traditional sportsbooks, Kalshi and other prediction markets are offering win markets on every driver in the field. Kalshi lets you buy “Yes” or “No” shares priced between 1 and 99 cents based on implied probability. If your driver wins, each share pays $1. You can also sell mid-race as share prices shift, giving you a trading edge you won’t find at a standard sportsbook.

Chase Elliott is the Kalshi favorite at 10% implied probability after climbing two points on the board this week. Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney sit at 8% each, with DraftKings listing all three as co-favorites at +1000. EchoPark plays like a mini superspeedway since its 2022 reconfiguration, so expect another drafting-heavy race where any car in the pack can win.

The full Kalshi board is below, followed by our predictions and longshot picks.

2026 Autotrader 400 Kalshi Odds

Prediction Markets

AutoTrader 400 Winner

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Kalshi

Chase Elliott

9%

Joey Logano

8%

Ryan Blaney

8%

William Byron

7%

Austin Cindric

6%

Christopher Bell

5%

Brad Keselowski

5%

Tyler Reddick

5%

Denny Hamlin

5%

Carson Hocevar

5%

Predict

The real Kalshi edge shows up in the longshots. Ross Chastain at 2 cents on Kalshi pays $500 on a $10 play, while DraftKings has him at +2200, paying just $220 on that same $10. Josh Berry is another gap — 2 cents on Kalshi ($500 payout) vs. +3500 on DraftKings ($350).

The deeper you go on the board, the better Kalshi’s payouts get compared to traditional sportsbooks. And you can sell your position mid-race if your driver is running up front, locking in profit before the checkered flag even drops.

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*Kalshi odds as of Feb. 21, 2026. Kalshi is legal in all 50 states. Start trading with the Kalshi referral code.

How Kalshi Works for the Autotrader 400

When you want to back a driver on Kalshi, you buy “Yes” shares at the listed price. If Logano is trading at 8 cents, you pay 8 cents per share. If he wins, each share pays $1. If he doesn’t, you lose your 8 cents.

The trading angle is what makes Kalshi different. Say you bought Logano shares at 8 cents before the race. If he’s leading with 50 laps to go and his price climbs to 30 cents, you can sell and lock in profit without waiting for the checkered flag. On a track like EchoPark, where pack racing creates constant lead changes, share prices will swing all afternoon.

Logano has led a series-best 528 laps on reconfigured Atlanta and owns the highest average driver rating (105.4) over the last six races here. That front-running time will push his share price up during the race, even if someone else ends up winning.

Autotrader 400 Predictions: Kalshi Favorites

Elliott is the biggest mover on the Kalshi board, climbing two points to 10% implied probability. He owns the best average finish (9.1) among all drivers across eight starts on the new configuration, plus two wins and 166 laps led. He won the most recent race here last fall and finished fourth in the Daytona 500 with 10 Stage points.

Blaney has been knocking on the door at Atlanta without breaking through since the 2022 reconfiguration. He owns the best average starting position (3.1) in the field, four top-5s, six top-10s, and 107 laps led across eight starts. He nearly won the 2024 spring race in that legendary three-wide finish with Suarez and Busch.

The 27th-place Daytona finish was misleading. Blaney racked up a field-best 26 Stage points before wrecks around him damaged the No. 12 car. His speed was never the issue, and he remains one of the best drafting track racers in the Cup Series.

Logano has two wins on reconfigured Atlanta and led 134 laps in his last two races here alone. He came off a Duel win and a third-place Daytona 500 finish, sitting second in points. Logano’s 528 career laps led at this track are more than any other active driver, which makes him the top mid-race trading play on the board.

• 2026 Autotrader 400 Prediction to Win: Ryan Blaney (8% / 9¢ per share on Kalshi)

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Autotrader 400 Kalshi Longshot Picks

EchoPark is slightly more predictable than Daytona, but it’s still a drafting track. Three of the last eight races here have produced double-digit caution counts, and the winner came from outside the top 10 on the starting grid in four of the last five. That chaos creates real opportunity in the prediction market.

Autotrader 400 Kalshi Longshot Odds

Kyle Busch is my top longshot play. He has the best average finishing position (8.8) at EchoPark since 2023 among all Cup Series drivers, with five top-10s in eight starts on the new configuration. He came within 0.007 seconds of winning the 2024 spring race in that three-wide finish with Suarez and Blaney. A $10 play at 4 cents returns $250.

Brad Keselowski has two wins at Atlanta and finished runner-up here last fall after leading 46 laps. He also ran fifth in the Daytona 500, showing he’s competitive despite the broken leg he dealt with earlier this offseason. Trading at 4 cents on Kalshi, a $10 position pays $250.

Daniel Suarez won this race in 2024 and bookended that victory with runner-up finishes on either side. He’s now paired with Spire Motorsports, which produced two top-10 Atlanta finishes for Carson Hocevar last season. A $10 play at 3 cents returns $333.

Ross Chastain at 2 cents is the sneakiest play on the board. His Atlanta results don’t jump off the page, but he was leading the inside lane on the final restart of the 2025 race and consistently puts himself in position late. His late-race positioning at EchoPark has been better than at Daytona or Talladega. A $10 trade returns $500.

Josh Berry drives the No. 21 Wood Brothers Ford that functions as the fourth Penske entry, drafting with Logano, Blaney, and Cindric. He led 56 laps here last February before finishing 25th due to an accident, proving the speed is there. Berry finished ninth in the Daytona 500, his third straight top-10 result. A $10 position at 2 cents pays $500.

Autotrader 400 Longshot Picks:

• Kyle Busch (5% / 4¢ per share on Kalshi)
• Brad Keselowski (4% / 4¢ per share on Kalshi)
• Ross Chastain (3% / 2¢ per share on Kalshi)

KALSHI TRADING

Offer

T&Cs

Trade at Kalshi & Get a $10 bonus when you sign up today!

Must be 18+ years or older & residing in the United States. Other Terms & Conditions may apply.

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CODE: DIME

CODE: DIME

SIGNUP TODAY

GET A $10
BONUS

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How to Watch the 2026 Autotrader 400

The 2026 Autotrader 400 airs live on FOX this Sunday, February 22, at 3:00 p.m. ET from EchoPark Speedway in Hampton, Georgia. Expect a cold afternoon with a high of 47 degrees and 18 mph winds, but rain should stay away with just a 15% chance of precipitation.