Daytona 500 DFS Picks & Strategy: Expert Lineup and DraftKings/FanDuel Advice
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- DraftKings is hosting a $500,000 DFS contest for the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway
- Our expert lineup stacks drivers starting deep in the pack to maximize place-differential upside
- Below, see our Daytona 500 DFS picks, strategy, and expert DraftKings and FanDuel advice
In honor of DraftKings’ $500,000 contest for the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway, we’re going to do something dangerous.
We’re going to help you build a Daytona 500 DFS lineup. In public. On purpose.
And if you’d rather build your own? Even better. We’ll give you the blueprint with our expert DraftKings and FanDuel advice.
DFS is something we do very well at the @SpeedwaySteve2 headquarters. We’ve studied enough superspeedway box scores and replays of airborne Camrys to understand one thing: you don’t win Daytona 500 DFS by predicting the actual race winner.
You win it by surviving the math.
Let’s start with the basics.
How DraftKings DFS Scoring Works for the Daytona 500
- Point Differential: +/- 1 point
- Fastest Laps: +0.45 points
- Laps Led: +0.25 points
Understanding this scoring system is the foundation of any winning Daytona 500 DFS strategy. Place differential is king, which is why our DFS picks lean heavily on drivers starting deep in the field.
Our Expert Daytona 500 DFS Lineup and Picks
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Can you notice the theme?
We are not flirting with the front row, and we are not impressed by qualifying speed.
We prefer to stack drivers starting deep in the pack because that’s where DFS equity lives at Daytona. A driver starting 38th and finishing 14th can outscore a driver who starts 3rd and finishes 6th…and that’s before we even get to fastest laps.
Starting position at Daytona is not a badge of honor. It’s a pure liability if you don’t capture place-differential upside.
Are Fastest Laps Completely Random?
Here’s the part people forget.
On superspeedways, the draft works like a physics experiment. The cars at the back of the line often post the fastest laps because they’re being pulled forward like they’re attached to a rubber band. Meanwhile, the leader is punching a hole in the air like he’s volunteering for cardio.
This means our back-half build doesn’t just carry position-differential upside. It has sneaky fastest-lap potential early, especially while our guys are…well…still back there. We are hunting free points, and Daytona hands them out in weird ways.
Daytona 500 DFS Strategy: Standing Out from the Crowd
This is the part where people panic.
“Why aren’t we using the full $50,000?”
Because everyone else is. In large fields, duplication is death. If you hit the optimal lineup and 257 other people hit it too, congratulations! You just won enough money to cover dinner.
By leaving $1,500 unused, we instantly reduce duplication probability. Most players cannot physically click “Submit” unless the salary reads $49,900 or higher. It’s a psychological itch.
Buy yourself something nice with that unused cap space. This DraftKings and FanDuel advice applies across platforms: differentiation is the name of the game.
Why Manufacturer Correlation Matters
Let’s look at the structure of our Daytona 500 DFS picks:
The Chevrolets
- William Byron
- Ross Chastain
- Connor Zillisch
Notice anything? Correlation.
Manufacturers work together in the draft. They pit together, form lines, and protect each other.
Examine a layer deeper and you’ll find that Zillisch and Chastain are teammates, meaning team orders become even more relevant. If they’re near each other late, they’re likely attached at the bumper.
The Fords
- Chris Buescher
- Austin Cindric
- Zane Smith
Same idea, same logic. If the race gets manufacturer-segmented late, as it often does, we’re positioned on both major alliances.
Balanced exposure across the two largest drafting alliances gives us structural leverage without overcommitting to one outcome. No Toyotas were injured in the construction of this expert lineup.
The Byron Problem: Expert DraftKings and FanDuel Advice
William Byron starting 39th is going to be nuclear chalk. He’s the back-to-back Daytona 500 champion. The public will click him reflexively, and we expect his ownership could sniff 70%.
Normally, we love leverage. But there are spots where fading chalk is reckless, and this is one of them. If Byron finishes 10th from 39th, you are dead without him.
There are times to be different, and this is not one of them.
Final Thought on Daytona 500 DFS Strategy
Daytona is random, but your build shouldn’t be.
You cannot predict the “Big One,” but you can position yourself to benefit from it.
Load up on place-differential points. Correlate manufacturers. Leave salary on the table. Accept the chaos.
…And if it all gets wiped out on Lap 142?
We’ll calmly explain next week that it was variance…like professionals.
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Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.