Daytona 500 Longshot Picks: Three Racers Who Could Surprise

• One just never knows at the Daytona 500. Longer shots can definitely win this race.
• There are always drivers who are just priced too low!
• Read on for our latest longshot Daytona 500 picks for racers who could surprise.

We have made it to the Super Bowl Sunday of NASCAR. The Great American Race is scheduled for later this afternoon and right now, it is expected that the rain and thunderstorms will hold off. Do note breezy southerly winds are expected during the afternoon hours.

How might this impact the race? Lift around a few turns (particularly 1 and 3) will cause handling issues inside the pack. Drafting will be an adventure especially in gusts which could be in the 25-30 mph range.

There are few who are as excited as we are for the race. Add in warm temperatures (75-80) and we have the recipe for a few more cautions and the potential for more attrition.

Daytona 500 Longshot Odds

Among our notables for longshots, several favorites here include Chris Buescher who is +2800, implying a win probability of 3.45 percent. Bubba Wallace and Ryan Preece are also at +2800. By contrast, Riley Herbst is probably the longest chance of all at +100000, which carries a probability to win of 1%.

So, which longshots could surprise us come this evening? What we need is a little luck and more caution flags. Honestly, we need the very chaos the race can potentially bring. Sometimes that happens and sometimes it does not.

Odds available at DraftKings as of February 15, 2026, at 7:30am ET. Download the best sports betting app for the 2026 Daytona 500.

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Daytona Longshot Pick #1: Chris Buescher (+2800 at DraftKings)

Among our drivers to surprise is one that can run well on superspeedways. People are forgetting that Chris Buescher has raced six times on the 2.5-mile track since February of 2023. He has one win, a couple of Top 5 results, and a win. Now, the win came in the second Daytona race. However, the bottom line is Buescher is typically there in the later stages of the race. His best finish during this span was fourth in 2023. If the #17 car is better than the #6 of Brad Keselowski, this will become interesting quickly.

The risk for us is the most obvious. Buescher starts 41st and in a backup car. However, he drafts exceedingly well and can run up the field. Superspeedways cycle frequently. The NextGen cars (2022-present) average about 6.6 cautions per Daytona 500. Besides the cautions, more cars may need to be involved. Look at how William Byron won last year. He was seventh at the time of the final accident on the last lap. He timed it just right and repeated.

Yes, taking chances with drivers at Daytona is not for the faint of heart. Chris Buescher is our first choice given the push he can give and receive. A Top 5 result is also +360 by the way.

Daytona 500 Longshot Pick #2: Cole Custer (+10000 at Caesars)

Going this far down the tables reveal a lot of risk-taking that I like to wager on. Again, wagers like this require restraint. A few dollars here and there instead of a bucket of money is necessary. This is because any race, especially Daytona, carries so many gone in a flash moments. Custer was in it to win it during the final lap in last year’s race. That is all anyone can ask for. Custer took a chance on going three-wide with Denny Hamlin and Austin Cindric. The problem for Custer was Joe Gibbs Racing’s Chase Briscoe. Briscoe got into Custer and that was that.

It is a classic what might have been. However, the thing at Daytona is that we saw that Custer can run up in the front. He learned a valuable lesson from the 2025 race. Like we mentioned above, longer darts require chaos. With eight cautions totaling 47 laps, there lies a hope for more collectors than the average again this year given the wind. If Custer survives, maybe he wins or grabs one of those Top 5 positions (+850).

Daytona Longshot Pick #3: Riley Herbst (+12500 at Caesars)

Racers that start in the back have a chance here. Riley Herbst starts 28th and right next to Bubba Wallace (27th). Expect the Toyota cars to work together. Manufacturers of the same ilk tend to stick together. Do not be surprised if Herbst learns from last year’s final lap collector. The danger is plenty. The glory is far greater. Herbst, at 100-to-1, is a choice. Preaching survival, timing, and restraint is essential in more ways than one.

I like taking the plunge on several longer shots on a superspeedway like this. One never knows when the next Trevor Bayne like triumph can pop up. Good luck!