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Expert NASCAR Picks & Predictions for Straight Talk Wireless 500 (Sunday, Mar. 8)
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- Tyler Reddick is on a three-race heater heading into the Straight Talk Wireless 500
- My model thinks two of these matchups are mispriced
- The green flag drops at 3:30 pm ET on FS1
Three races into the 2026 NASCAR season, Tyler Reddick is apparently trying to speedrun the whole thing.
Reddick has won the last three races, which is the motorsports equivalent of someone showing up to poker night, winning every hand, and politely asking if anyone minds if he also takes the table home. The man is on a heater.
The question now is whether the rest of the garage can cool him off, or if we’re about to witness the kind of early-season dominance that makes everyone else start glancing nervously at the standings before we’ve even finished our second cup of coffee.
Now the series heads to Phoenix for the Straight Talk Wireless 500, where sportsbooks, bettors, and several very stressed crew chiefs will try to figure out whether this is finally the week someone interrupts the Reddick parade.
The green flag drops Sunday at 3:30 pm ET live on FS1.
Straight Talk Wireless 500 Odds
Ryan Blaney is the favorite at +285, implying a win probability of 25.97 percent. TheScore Bet is currently offering a promo price on Reddick to win, boosting his odds all the way to +1800. Readers who don’t currently have an account can claim theScore Bet promo code here.
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Odds as of 11:58 am ET, March 8th, at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Expert Predictions for Straight Talk Wireless 500
Phoenix Raceway is a flat one-mile oval with a distinctive dogleg on the backstretch that turns restarts into something resembling a Black Friday doorbuster sale.
Drivers fan five and six wide diving through the dogleg, positions change in a hurry, and the opening laps after restarts can get extremely spicy before the field settles down. Survive those restarts, though, and the race often becomes a long-run chess match.
Tire management and car balance matters. Drivers who can maintain pace over extended green-flag runs tend to separate themselves once the dust settles.
In other words, the first few laps after a restart look like a demolition derby, then the stopwatch starts telling the real story.
Expert Picks for Straight Talk Wireless 500
Pick #1: Tyler Reddick over Carson Hocevar (-125, BetRivers)
This matchup tightened up a little after practice, but we still like where it lands.
Before the weekend sessions, my model projected Tyler Reddick at 7.9 and Carson Hocevar at 14.3, which made this one look fairly lopsided. Practice brought Hocevar closer to the conversation.
Hocevar posted the fourth-best practice speed, which pulled his updated projection forward to 11.3. Reddick was more modest in the session with the 13th-best practice time, and his projection slid slightly to 9.6.
Even with that adjustment, the underlying short-flat track data from 2024 and 2025 still favors Reddick.
Across the comparable races, Reddick produces 8.1 fastest laps per event compared to 4.1 for Hocevar, leads 13.1 laps per race versus 0.9, and owns a stronger 12.4 average running position compared to 17.0.
The consistency gap shows up even more in track position. Reddick spends 22.7 percent more laps inside the top 15, which matters at Phoenix where maintaining track position and managing long runs tends to separate the contenders from the spectators.
Hocevar, of course, brings the entertainment factor. He races like the throttle pedal personally offended him, which makes for great television and the occasional heart palpitations on pit boxes.
But in a matchup built around sustained pace at a technical short flat, we are still comfortable siding with my favorite tiny ginger over the modern-day Mr. Excitement.
Pick #2: William Byron over Austin Cindric (-105, theScore Bet)
At first glance, this matchup made me do a double take.
Before practice and qualifying, William Byron was projected at 4.8 in my model while Austin Cindric sat at 15.5. That kind of gap usually sends us sprinting toward the betting window like it’s the last hot dog at the concession stand.
Then the weekend sessions happened.
Cindric showed legitimate speed in Phoenix, posting the best overall practice session and qualifying third, which pulled his projection forward to 10.9. Byron was still solid, ninth in practice and ninth on the grid, but his projection backed up slightly to 6.3.
That tightening explains why this matchup exists in the first place. Without those sessions, this probably never even makes it onto the board.
Even with the adjustment, the short-flat track data from 2024 and 2025 still leans heavily toward Byron.
Byron averages 12.5 fastest laps per race compared to 4.5 for Cindric, leads 22.7 laps per race versus 6.2, and owns a 9.0 average running position compared to Cindric’s 16.9.
To Cindric’s credit, he does have a win at Gateway in that sample, and we will always be thankful for that afternoon because it allowed me to cash a 33/1 ticket. That kind of memory earns a driver permanent goodwill around the @SpeedwaySteve2 watercooler.
But taken as a whole, the speed metrics still favor Byron.
The bookmakers clearly believe Cindric’s strong weekend sessions close the gap enough to make this a fair fight.
We’re still comfortable siding with Byron here, and yes, we will be pressing submit with the Donkey Kong-sized hammer.
Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.
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