F1 Azerbaijan GP Predictions, Picks, Odds & How to Watch

• Max is priced right. Verstappen will be in clean air while everyone else fights over scraps, so the real edge is in head-to-head matchups.
• McLaren mirage. Their 2025 success is built on tire management, but Baku’s smooth surface and mile-long straight leave them looking more like a Toyota Corolla than a rocket ship.
• Read on to discover our F1 picks and Azerbaijan GP predictions for Sunday, September 21.

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Max Verstappen secured yet another pole position on Saturday for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix…his series-leading sixth of the year, because of course he did.

The real surprise came from Carlos Sainz, who somehow hustled that Williams into the front row during a qualifying session that had more yellow flags than a United Nations summit.

So we have Verstappen and Sainz leading a mixed-up grid into Sunday’s 7 a.m. ET “lights out and away we go” special on ESPN. Mother Nature may have a say too…there’s a 30% chance of rain to ensure the mayhem isn’t limited to Turn 1.

Azerbaijan Grand Prix Odds

*Odds available as of 9:46pm EST at DraftKings. Sign up with a DraftKings promo code to bet on Formula 1 racing.

Max Verstappen enters as the clear favorite with a 69.23% implied probability to win. Lando Norris follows at 15.38% despite starting seventh, while McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri sits at 7.69% from ninth on the grid.

Baku Race Preview

Azerbaijan’s street circuit is no joke, stretching 6.003 kilometers over 20 turns, featuring two DRS zones and a monster straight that’s second only to Vegas. Straight-line speed is king here, which explains why teams are trimming wings and rolling out low-downforce setups.

The rear tires will likely suffer, especially since Pirelli brought their three softest compounds. The surface is smooth, but hopefully this rubber finally delivers more pit strategy than last year’s boring one-stop affair.

Qualifying delivered absolute chaos. A light sprinkle of rain, cars kissing barriers, mechanical gremlins, and an Esteban Ocon disqualification for dessert created a scrambled grid that looks infinitely more entertaining than the usual parade order.

McLaren’s Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri start 7th and 9th respectively, Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton are stuck back in 10th and 12th, meaning Sunday’s chaos potential is through the roof. Formula 1 is simply better when the starting lineup looks like this.

We had SIX red flags and so much drama in qualifying 😵#F1 #AzerbaijanGP pic.twitter.com/qFuv0d5tdF

— Formula 1 (@F1) September 20, 2025

Azerbaijan Grand Prix Predictions

While it’s true we haven’t been collecting wins at our expected pace in recent columns, that just means it’s time to swing for the fences. We’ve been called many things, but quitters isn’t one of them. Stubborn? Absolutely. Overly optimistic? Guilty as charged. But quitters? Never.

We’ve analyzed and simulated optimal race pace, and while overtaking in Baku isn’t simple, it’s not Monaco where you need divine intervention to make a move. The real issue is that bookmakers are leaning too heavily on starting positions and haven’t properly factored in long-run pace.

That’s where our F1 picks find their edge. Max Verstappen is the exception…his outright win number is spot-on because the drivers we favor on pace will probably need a calendar to navigate through traffic. Max will be out front, practically sending selfies to himself.

Simply lovely!!! Very happy with this pole in such a difficult qualifying 🙌 Well done @redbullracing 💪 pic.twitter.com/oXXfAlidmN

— Max Verstappen (@Max33Verstappen) September 20, 2025

Yes, betting McLaren at long odds looks tempting for these Azerbaijan GP predictions. Don’t fall for it. Their 2025 dominance stems largely from tire management, and Baku’s smooth surface essentially neutralizes that advantage.

Add their straight-line speed being more “family sedan” than “rocket ship,” and the problem becomes clear. The smarter approach lies in head-to-head matchups, where we can capitalize on overall speed differentials. Cashing multiple matchups won’t make you want to launch your remote through the TV. It’s not glamorous, but it’s honest work.

My Expert Azerbaijan Grand Prix Picks:

• 1.0u – Isack Hadjar over Yuki Tsunoda (+160, ESPN…+120, BetRivers)
• 1.0u – Charles LeClerc over George Russell (+140, ESPN…+135, DraftKings)
• 1.1u – Charles LeClerc over Kimi Antonelli (-110, DraftKings…-120, ESPN)
• 1.0u – Lewis Hamilton over Carlos Sainz (+100, ESPN)
• 1.3u – Gabriel Bortoleto over Lance Stroll (-130, ESPN)