F1 Picks & Odds: 2025 Mexican GP Predictions & Start Time (Oct. 26)

• Hamilton vs Russell: Who really has the upper hand this weekend?
• Verstappen Watch: Is the Dutchman unstoppable again, or is someone about to shake things up?
• See the Mexican Grand Prix picks, predictions, and betting odds

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There’s a New Championship Favorite in the Betting Market!

Max Verstappen has re-entered his villain era – and the rest of the grid might want to start stretching, because this could get ugly. The Dutchman absolutely dominated the United States Grand Prix weekend, sweeping both the Sprint and the main event. He now sits just 40 points behind Oscar Piastri in the standings.

That’s three wins in the last four races for Max, who’s starting to look alarmingly like the unbothered, untouchable Verstappen of the past few seasons. You remember that guy…the one who made Sunday afternoons feel like rewatching the same episode of a show you didn’t like the first time.

Now we head to Mexico! The land of the jumping bean, the tortilla, and apparently…a Lando Norris pole position. Charles Leclerc will start alongside him in P2, while championship leader Piastri is buried in seventh. The McLaren tub will have a front-row seat to Verstappen’s rear wing in fifth when the lights go out.

Coverage begins at 4:00 p.m. ET, live on ESPN. Below, I have set out the Mexican Grand Prix odds (winner, podium, top ten) plus my favorite Mexican Grand Prix picks and predictions.

Mexican Grand Prix Odds

Lando Norris is the race favorite at -225, implying a win probability of 69.2%. Charles Leclerc slots in as the second-favorite at +450, giving him an 18.2% implied chance to spoil the party – assuming he remembers what it’s like to win something that isn’t a qualifying session.

Odds as 8:45am ET, October 26th, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Bookmark SBD’s DraftKings Missouri page to see the latest news before launch in December.

Mexican Grand Prix Picks & Predictions

• Lewis Hamilton to finish ahead of George Russell (-167 at BetRivers)

The Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico City checks in at 4.304 kilometers — and if that sounds like a mouthful, wait until you hear the engines gasp for air. The circuit’s got a monster front straight and three DRS zones, which means there are passing opportunities…or at least a few brave overtakes followed by complaints on the radio.

At over 7,000 feet above sea level, it’s the highest-altitude track on the F1 calendar. The thin air turns cooling systems into overworked interns and makes power units sweat harder than a Ferrari strategist.

I’m expecting another one-stop strategy, because that’s what Formula 1 has turned into this season — a high-speed parade occasionally interrupted by tire changes. Starting grid position will be king, and after the opening-lap jostle, don’t expect much movement.

Probably.

Maybe someone will try something spicy on strategy, but it’s unlikely to make much difference once the field settles in.

Sir Lewis Hamilton is still hunting for his first grand prix win…or even a podium…in Ferrari red. That probably doesn’t change today, but he’s absolutely crossing the line ahead of George Russell.

Hamilton’s been the better driver all weekend: quicker in every practice session and ahead on the starting grid. Russell’s only real hope is a Turn 1 kamikaze move, but we saw that he got swallowed off the start last weekend. This time, Max Verstappen is starting in the row right behind him — which sounds less like a racing position and more like a bad omen.

The high altitude should punish Mercedes’ cooling setup, while this circuit’s rhythm plays nicely into Ferrari’s hands. I’ve got Hamilton projected to finish 1.2 spots clear of Russell, and at this number, that’s good enough for us to buy in.

I’m also high on Liam Lawson this weekend. Normally, I would be all over him in a head-to-head matchup, but options are slim at press time. A special SpeedwaySteve2 investigation reveals the culprit: sportsbooks need to post the racing board sooner so we can do our usual number-crunching, gut-checking, and general pick-apartery.

For now, a points finish at +225 is a decent little shout…nothing to write home about, but it’ll do. The real fun comes from a matchup play against drivers like Ocon, Stroll, or Gasly. I’m waiting on a playable price to pounce!