F1 Picks & Odds: Italian Grand Prix Predictions & Start Time 2025

• “Lights out and away we go!” for the Italian Grand Prix on Sunday, Sept. 7
• Lando Norris starts on the front row, but history suggests chaos is ahead
• Scroll down to see my top F1 picks, predictions and odds for Monza today

---

The Italian Grand Prix at Monza goes green Sunday, September 7 at 9 a.m. ET on ESPN. Max Verstappen has the pole, but 2025 hasn’t exactly been a highlight reel of Red Bull dominance.

Lando Norris lines up alongside, and with his growing track record of front-row fumbles, this one feels more like a street fight than a foregone conclusion.

I dive into all the Italian Grand Prix odds and make my F1 picks and predictions.

F1 Italian Grand Prix Odds

*Odds available at DraftKings as of September 6, 2025. Bet on F1 today with a DraftKings promo code.

Lando Norris, starting second, is the market favorite to win with an implied win probability of 42.6%. McLaren teammate, Oscar Piastri rolls off third and is the second favorite along with pole-sitter Max Verstappen. Both have implied win probabilities of 33.3%.

Italian GP Track Preview

Welcome to the Temple of Speed, better known as Autodromo Nazionale di Monza. It’s 5.793 kilometers stretched over 53 laps and 11 turns. It’s also Ferrari’s home race, which usually means massive tifosi energy followed by massive tifosi disappointment.

Teams trim the wings here for the lowest downforce setup of the season, but don’t expect the 2 DRS zones to be a magic bullet. Passing at Monza is never as easy as the rulebook pretends.

Brakes and traction matter most, which is code for “Aston Martin might cry about it while Williams quietly looks competent.” Tire wear is low, and with strategy models pointing to a one-stopper, the on-track action could feel more like chess than demolition derby.

F1 Picks and Best Bets for Italian GP

• Oscar Piastri over Lando Norris (+125, Caesars)

Our model sees this as a toss-up, but history gives Piastri an edge. Norris has a knack for turning great starting positions into unique, often comical disasters. It’s almost an art form at this point. Piastri, on the other hand, gets sharper as the weekend goes on.

Your #ItalianGP front 3️⃣ #McLaren pic.twitter.com/YJkHyD89u2

— McLaren (@McLarenF1) September 6, 2025

Lando may start a row ahead, but he owes that to the tow from Piastri that got him out of Q2. Piastri could make the move right away or wait until later in the stint. Either way, the plus-money here is worth grabbing.

• Winner Without Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari, Aston Martin, McLaren: Williams (+350, DraftKings)

This one has us rooting for the tubs of Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon. Sainz starts 13^th and  Albon rolls off 14^th. The overwhelming favorite in this market is Sauber (-275) after Gabby Bortoleto put together a heroic effort to qualify 7th. Ollie Bearman (11th) and Nico Hulkenberg (12th) are the only other obstacles standing between us and another plus-money banger of a payday.

"This will be a strong track for us."

A confident JV addresses the team in Monza ahead of this weekend's #ItalianGP 🗣️

— Atlassian Williams Racing (@WilliamsRacing) September 6, 2025

The good news is that Williams was cooking with gas in free practice. In FP1, Sainz was third, Albon seventh. FP2 was the same result. FP3 saw a minor stumble…Sainz 13th, Albon 10^th…but the gaps were tiny.

In Q2, where both Williams cars were eliminated, the difference between second and 14th was just four-tenths of a second. They missed the cut by the slimmest of margins, but the speed is there and we’re confident that one of these wagons can cash this prop.