F1 Qatar Grand Prix Predictions, Picks & Odds (Sunday, Nov. 30)

• Leclerc vs. Alonso: Sinking ships, but one will get you the cash.
• Piastri vs. Verstappen vs. Norris: The triple threat cage match that we all need on Sunday.
• Read This: Or regret it Sunday.

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We’re rolling into the Formula 1 Qatar Grand Prix, completely jacked up on Mountain Dew…and so is the McLaren duo.

Oscar Piastri kept his faint championship hopes breathing through a straw by delivering a perfect Saturday: he won the Sprint, maxed out the points, and parked his papaya-colored rocket on pole for Sunday’s Qatar Grand Prix.

Unfortunately for young Oscar, the wolves are circling. Lando Norris—teammate, title favorite, and professional “I swear this time I won’t choke Lap 1” enthusiast—lines up beside him, with the inevitable Max Verstappen looming on Row 2.

Will they make it cleanly through Turn 1?

Probably not.

And that’s why you’re here: to figure out how to bet on the absolute certainty of shenanigans. Our Qatar Grand Prix predictions factor in the chaos that’s practically guaranteed when these three line up together.

It can’t possibly go worse for us than last week…am I right?

“Shut up, Chip, or I’ll come at you like a spider monkey.”

Either way, we’ll find out together. It’s lights out and away we go at 11 a.m. ET on ESPN.

Qatar Grand Prix Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, November 29 at 11:54 p.m. ET. Check out the best online sportsbook to bet on Sunday’s F1 action.

Pole-sitter Oscar Piastri leads the Qatar Grand Prix odds at -150, which gives him about a 60% implied chance to finish the job on Sunday. Lando Norris slots in next at +200 (roughly 33.3%), while Max Verstappen sits at +425, translating to about a 19.1% shot if you believe he can spoil the McLaren party.

Qatar Grand Prix Predictions

The Qatar Grand Prix circuit stretches 5.419 kilometers around 16 corners, and drivers will take the scenic route 57 times.

There is only one DRS zone, down the long front straight, which also doubles as the only realistic overtaking opportunity unless someone feels particularly brave or deeply confused. The rest of the lap winds through tight, flowing sections with plenty of grip.

That makes sense because this place was purpose-built for MotoGP—not these oversized F1 wagons that handle like caffeinated shopping carts through the twisties.

What an amazing flyover! ✈️#F1Sprint #QatarGP @qatarairways pic.twitter.com/2jDhS0ifre

— Formula 1 (@F1) November 29, 2025

The kerbs are brutal enough to rattle fillings loose, and we already saw a few five-second penalties handed out in the Sprint, so track limits are absolutely in play.

The circuit also chews through tires like it’s getting paid by the blister, so F1’s top brass slapped a 25-lap cap on the hard compound. That means we’re guaranteed at least two pit stops per driver, which, let’s be honest, might be the most entertaining part of the day outside of the Turn 1 demolition lottery.

Passing here is a full-blown nightmare, which factors heavily into our Qatar Grand Prix predictions for Sunday’s race.

Qatar Grand Prix Picks

We all like to wager a little to win a lot, right? Well, hold your horses…we’ll get there. But first, let’s start with our safer Qatar Grand Prix picks:

Charles Leclerc over Fernando Alonso (-130, ESPN)

Ferrari has had a laundry list of problems this weekend. Leclerc’s teammate, Lewis Hamilton, has been setting all kinds of Ferrari qualifying futility records. Leclerc’s struggles are less severe, but still notable.

We trust that he can figure out how to show a pulse of pace. Ferrari surprised us all last weekend in Las Vegas—Leclerc battled into fourth and Hamilton finished eighth, albeit both benefiting from McLaren’s double disqualification.

A violent spin for Charles Leclerc in Q3…

😣

pic.twitter.com/exSuwUbX7y

— Ferrari News 🐎 (@FanaticsFerrari) November 29, 2025

Alonso, meanwhile, has been a one-lap wonder this weekend. He was third fastest in Free Practice 1 and fourth in Sprint qualifying…and then promptly gifted the field several overtaking opportunities, dropping to seventh over a short 19-lap jaunt.

The prospect of a full-length Grand Prix isn’t much brighter. Not even new Team Principal Adrian Newey could magically inject Aston Martin with that kind of race pace overnight. Both drivers will struggle, but Alonso is the bigger boat anchor in our Qatar Grand Prix picks.

Carlos Sainz over Isack Hadjar (+120, ESPN)
Ollie Bearman over Liam Lawson (+120, Bet365 / +100, ESPN)

Here are two more matchups. These come with the “Trust me, bro” write-up because I’m closing in on my word count limit, and SpeedwayBrandi is giving me the side-eye from across the room as she wishes I were folding laundry.

So, here’s what you really came for—the plus-money bangers:

George Russell over Max Verstappen (+190, ESPN)

This is easy money. It’s almost like the books didn’t watch how much Max has struggled this weekend—the bouncing, the resigned sighs over the radio discussing “adjustments,” which probably really meant Championship #5 will have to wait.

Verstappen doesn’t have the pace to keep up with the McLaren duo, while George Russell looked racy during the Sprint. Verstappen’s only hope is a Turn 1 miracle paired with a strategic masterclass.

Russell has the speed to capitalize on an overcut or undercut, shake Verstappen off, and cash this big number for the brand.

Qatar Grand Prix Longshot Picks

• George Russell (+2200, DraftKings)
• Kimi Antonelli (+6600, BetRivers)
• Antonelli to finish on the podium (+450, DraftKings)

Let’s take some shots.

The “No” safety-car odds are healthy plus-money, meaning the books are clearly on the same page: something is going to happen. Carnage will occur.

Lando Norris can clinch the Championship if he goes full kamikaze. Verstappen has to slice past both of the orange wagons from third. Oscar needs to win to ah-ah-ah-ah stay alive. These are desperate times, and desperate measures exist for a reason.

One win away from dreams becoming reality

Tomorrow Lando Norris can become a Formula 1 World Champion#F1 #QatarGP pic.twitter.com/UpDux5Ri1v

— Formula 1 (@F1) November 29, 2025

The betting board already reflects how hard it is to pass. What it doesn’t account for is the incoming chaos in the first two rows.

Russell is one of the best starters on the grid, and we trust him to avoid disaster. If a disaster can’t be avoided, we’ll take the strongest tub in Row 3: Kimi Antonelli.

These outright numbers already represent value in the algorithm. Honestly, it’s way easier to sleep at night with a couple of longshots that have a pulse than wagering big money on the first three favorites…all of whom have targets on their backs and no tank-like armor.

Looking for more F1 betting action? Use our sportsbook promos to get started with your Qatar Grand Prix picks.