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FanShield 500 Odds & Picks

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Racing

Updated Apr 9, 2020 · 5:02 PM PDT

The drivers making a turn at the Phoenix Raceway.
Kyle Busch is a sizable favorite at +325 at the FanShield 500 in Phoenix this weekend. Photo by Darryl Moran (Flickr).
  • The FanShield 500 will take place on Sunday, March 8th at Phoenix Raceway in Avondale, Arizona. This track is a one-mile, low-banked tri-oval
  • Denny Hamlin is the defending champ but Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick are better bets this week
  • Read on for the odds and best bets for this weekend’s race

The NASCAR circuit is heading to The Grand Canyon State this weekend for the FanShield 500. The race will take place on Sunday, March 8th at 3:30 pm. EST. Kyle Busch is the clear-cut favorite here and if you look at his track history, it’s easy to see why he’s a good bet.

Odds to Win 2020 FanShield 500

Driver Odds
Kyle Busch +325
Martin Truex Jr. +475
Denny Hamlin +600
Kevin Harvick +600
Chase Elliott +1000
Brad Keselowski +1200
Joey Logano +1200
Ryan Blaney +1200
Alex Bowman +1600
Kyle Larson +1600
Jimmie Johnson +2000
Kurt Busch +2200

Odds taken Mar. 3.

Bet on Busch Again

We were on Kyle Busch last week when he came close to winning at Fontana and it makes sense for you to fire him up across the board – for betting, for DFS and for fantasy – in Phoenix. His numbers are so incredible at the Phoenix Raceway that he’s really hard to argue with here.

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Looking at the short-term history, Busch hasn’t finished worse than second in any of his last four starts here, which includes a pair of wins. Looking further out, Busch has placed no worse than seventh in nine straight starts and he’s placed in the Top 4 in eight of those outings. He’s led at least 69 laps in six of his last eight here. He’s a good bet in Phoenix.

How About Harvick?

If Busch isn’t your cup of tea among the favorites, your next best bet is Kevin Harvick. He’s been in a “slump” of late in Phoenix with results of fifth, ninth and fifth in his last three starts. However, that ninth-place result is his worst in 13 straight outings at Phoenix Raceway.

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Taking a look at his overall track record, Harvick has won this race a whopping nine times. That includes four straight from 2013 to 2015. Over his last 16 starts here, his average driver finish is an incredible 3.6. If you don’t like him to win outright here, betting him for a Top 10 seems fairly safe.

Take a Look at Larson

Larson is a bit further down the board as he’s posted at +1600 to win this race. While I’m not sure that he’ll pull this off, he seems like a reasonable choice for a Top 10 prop.

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Larson has been in the Top 6 in each of his last three starts in Phoenix. While he hasn’t led a single lap in that span, he’s been buzzing around the leaders. That’s the norm for him, though, as he’s now done that in five of his last seven outings there. I’ll bank on him extending that streak this week.

Pass on Hamlin

Hamlin is the defending champ at Phoenix as he won the fall race in 2019 and placed fifth in the spring race. Overall, his numbers here aren’t that bad as he has seven Top 10’s here in his last nine starts. I’m still fine if you want to use him for Top 10 or matchup props but I don’t like him to win outright.

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Hamlin did with the Daytona 500 but was then 17th in Las Vegas and the sixth in California. He’s only won this race twice in his career and he’s placed 10th or worse here in seven of his last 15 outings. I’m not expecting a terrible outing but I don’t think he wins back-to-back.

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