Final NASCAR DuraMAX Predictions, Odds & Start Time at Circuit of the Americas

• The market reacted hard to Saturday’s sessions, but did it overreact on Larson and Bell?
• Why a +250 matchup and a +700 group play may offer more value than laying juice on the favorite.
• Read below for final NASCAR DuraMAX predictions, odds and start time at Circuit of the Americas.

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We survived Daytona.
We survived Atlanta.
We survived pretending we had control.

Now we get COTA.

A 2.4-mile, 20-turn road course carved into the Texas hills with dramatic elevation change, heavy braking zones and a Turn 1 that turns into a funnel every single year.

This isn’t pack racing or “close your eyes and hope.” Circuit of the Americas rewards rhythm, braking discipline and drivers who understand that patience is faster than panic.

It also tends to reward bettors who don’t overreact to a single practice sheet. Because once those lap times hit the screen, the odds started moving like someone pulled a fire alarm.

Sometimes that movement is sharp, but sometimes it’s simply theater.

The job is figuring out which one we’re looking at.

DuraMAX Grand Prix Start Time

The green flag drops at 3:30 p.m. ET live on FOX.

DuraMAX Grand Prix Updated Odds

Odds available at theScore Bet on March 1 at 2:30 a.m. ET. Shane Van Gisbergen is the market favorite at +125, implying a 55.6% win probability. Shop the best online sportsbooks for the top DuraMAX Grand Prix odds.

Shane van Gisbergen said he was just having fun when he threw a ✌️sign up after making a three-wide pass for the lead. Enjoys how he can do that in NASCAR

He also exchanged hand signals with Connor Zilisch as well. "He was telling me which number his car was a couple of times." pic.twitter.com/OXSEWTVbUx

— Steven Taranto (@STaranto92) February 28, 2026

Market Movers

• Ryan Blaney

Blaney opened at +4500 and was hammered down to +900 after a strong practice session and a fourth-place qualifying effort. We graded his long-run pace as best overall, which matters at COTA.

Now translate the math.

+4500 implied roughly a two percent win probability.
+900 implies ten percent.

That is not a tweak…it’s a full market rewrite.

At 45 to 1, he was probably mispriced. At 9 to 1, he is respected, possibly with a splash of tax.

If you grabbed that +4500, congratulations. Please screenshot it and send it to everyone you know. If you didn’t, welcome back to paying retail with the rest of us.

The edge existed, but it’s long gone.

• Kyle Larson

Larson drifted from +1600 to +2500 after an 11th-ranked practice session and a 15th-place qualifying effort.

Our internal projections adjusted, but not dramatically. The reaction feels heavier than the underlying data supports.

We adjusted. The market panicked. I promise you, friend, those are not the same thing, and that discrepancy becomes important shortly.

• Christopher Bell
• Tyler Reddick

The momentum continues for the No. 45!@TylerReddick wins the #BuschLightPole at @NASCARatCOTA! pic.twitter.com/iy7fh6qprI

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) February 28, 2026

Some of the most aggressive swings involved Bell and Reddick.

Reddick moved from +1600 to +550 after a strong practice and pole position. Bell drifted from +900 to +1600 following a poor practice session despite qualifying eighth.

The market rewarded those optics and punished the spreadsheet.

Reddick’s pole looks great on television graphics while Bell’s 28th on a practice chart is terrifying on Twitter.

Whether that adjustment was proportional is another question.

Breaking news: we don’t believe it was…and that creates opportunity.

Which brings us to the bets.

Final NASCAR DuraMAX Predictions

Top-10

• Kyle Larson (+125, theScore Bet)

Now we circle back.

Before Saturday’s sessions, Larson projected at 5.8 and ranked fourth overall in our model. After incorporating practice and qualifying, he remains fourth. The projection settles at 7.9.

That’s a downgrade, not a collapse.

If his median outcome lives around eighth, then a Top-8 at even money would be playable if it existed.

Instead, we are being offered Top-10 at +125, which implies a 44.4 percent probability.

Are we honestly saying Larson finishes inside the Top-10 less than half the time on a technical road course where he still profiles as a top-tier option? That feels aggressive.

Larson finishing 11th is possible. So is my promise to not live bet something reckless on Lap 18.

Maybe. We are betting probabilities, not anxiety.

This is not a ceiling bet. It’s a stability bet, and the boring ones are usually the ones that cash.

“He’s better at everything than us”

Kyle Larson praises the road course prowess of Shane van Gisbergen. #NASCAR pic.twitter.com/OqueYQiMB7

— Frontstretch (@Frontstretch) February 28, 2026

Matchup

• Christopher Bell over Tyler Reddick (+250, bet365/Fanatics…+170, theScore Bet)

Let’s give you the numbers.

Before practice and qualifying, our model projected Bell at 4.1 and Reddick at 9.1. After incorporating new data, those projections sit at 8.1 and 8.4.

Effectively even.

Yet +250 implies Bell wins this matchup only 28.6 percent of the time.

On 2025 road courses, Bell ranked second in average running position at 8.5 and averaged 5.2 fastest laps per race. Reddick’s average running position was 12.4 with 3.2 fastest laps. Both drivers are certainly capable, but the price suggests Reddick is significantly safer.

Our numbers again disagree.

Sportsbooks are excellent at pricing narratives. They are less perfect at pricing overreactions that happen in a three-hour window.

We make a living betting those overreactions…and +250 in what projects as a coin flip is an overreaction.

Group

• Kyle Larson over Zilisch/Elliott/Bell (+700, bet365/Fanatics)

The number says longshot. Our projections say fistfight.

Elliott projects at 7.4. Larson at 7.9. Bell at 8.1. Zilisch at 9.7. There is no runaway favorite hiding in those numbers.

+700 implies a 12.5 percent probability. But when three drivers sit within half a finishing position of each other in projection, this should not be priced like a miracle scenario. It should be priced like a competitive Sunday.

The market sees Zilisch hype, Elliott brand equity and Bell’s defending-winner sparkle.

Again, sportsbooks are not immune to shiny objects, nor are bettors.

We see four drivers who are going to spend 70-ish laps within a few seconds of each other.

We won’t need chaos (probably).

We just need normal race variance.

And that normal race variance cashes a lot more often than miracles.

Lock in your Circuit of the Americas predictions with a bet365 bonus code before the green flag drops.