Formula 1 2023 Spanish Grand Prix Odds & Picks
- Fernando Alonso looks to build on his best finish in nine years at this weekend’s Spanish Grand Prix
- Alonso finished second last weekend in Monaco, behind betting favorite Max Verstappen
- Read on for all the Spanish Grand Prix predictions, odds and trends of of Sunday’s race at Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya
Fernando Alonso looks to build on his best finish on the Formula 1 circuit in nine years when he hits the track this weekend in Barcelona for the 2023 Spanish Grand Prix. The 41-year-old, two-time F1 champion enjoyed a sensational weekend in Monte Carlo this past week, qualifying on the front before driving to a second-place finish at the Monaco Grand Prix. The Aston Martin driver has now reached the podium in five of six race appearances this season, but faces a massive challenge in Barcelona, where Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton have combined to win eight of the past nine editions of this race.
Here’s a look at all the odds and trends ahead of the 2023 Spanish Grand Prix on Sunday morning, with race time set for 9:00am ET at Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya.
Odds to Win 2023 Spanish Grand Prix
| Driver | Odds to Win | Odds to Finish Top Three | Odds to Finish Top Six | Odds to Finish Top Ten |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | -250 | -500 | -650 | -900 |
| Sergio Perez | +330 | -600 | -450 | -750 |
| Fernando Alonso | +1100 | -200 | -600 | -700 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +2000 | +200 | -360 | -700 |
| George Russell | +2200 | +330 | -300 | -650 |
| Charles Leclerc | +2200 | +225 | -360 | -650 |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | +3000 | +450 | -225 | -450 |
| Lance Stroll | +13000 | +1600 | +150 | -300 |
| Pierre Gasly | +25000 | +1800 | +330 | -250 |
| Lando Norris | +25000 | +3000 | +650 | -175 |
| Esteban Ocon | +25000 | +1800 | +330 | -250 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +60000 | +15000 | +1800 | +250 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +60000 | +13000 | +2200 | +285 |
| Oscar Piastri | +60000 | +15000 | +2500 | +285 |
| Niko Hulkenberg | +60000 | +15000 | +1200 | +190 |
| Kevin Magnusson | +60000 | +15000 | +1200 | +190 |
| Alex Albon | +60000 | +20000 | +2800 | +300 |
| Nyck de Vries | +90000 | +30000 | +5000 | +750 |
| Logan Sargent | +90000 | +30000 | +6500 | +900 |
| Guanyu Zhou | +90000 | +25000 | +4000 | +650 |
In the wake of his fourth win and sixth top-two finish in as many races this season, Max Verstappen has soared to a short -250 favorite in the Spanish Grand Prix odds. Verstappen’s Red Bull Racing teammate, Sergio Perez, follows as a +330 second-favorite, while Fernando Alonso rounds out the top of the odds board at +1100.
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Alonso Knocking on the Door
Fernando Alonso’s renaissance season continued last weekend in Monaco, where he turned in both his best qualifying time and race performance in recent memory. With his second-place performance in Monte Carlo, the Spaniard arrives in Barcelona for his home race in firm control of third place in the F1 Drivers Standings, just 12 points back of Perez, and has emerged as an intriguing +750 bet in the odds to finish atop the Standings without Verstappen.
Last 4 races of Fernando Alonso as progression:
Baku – P4
Miami – P3
Monaco – P2
Barcelona – “So I will not get into Barcelona thinking that I will win” pic.twitter.com/8CPG5tYrIF— Aston Martin F1 updates (@startonpole) May 30, 2023
However, Alonso has enjoyed little success in his home race. Since his most recent victory in Barcelona back in 2013, Alonso has failed to finish better than sixth and has either retired or finish outside the points on four occasions in seven Spanish Grand prix appearances. That track record should understandably temper expectations going into the weekend.
However, it is tough to overlook the positive results that Alonso produced in F1 pre-season testing on this track back in February, including a torrid opening day, which he finished with the second-best time just 0.029 seconds back of Verstappen. Accordingly, Alonso is worthy of a +850 value wager to be tops in qualifying on Saturday.
Spanish Grand Prix Recent Winners
| Year | Driver | Margin of Victory | Pole Position | Fastest Lap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Max Verstappen – Red Bull Racing | 13.072 sec | Charles Leclerc – Ferrari | Sergio Perez – Red Bull Racing |
| 2021 | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | 15.841 sec | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | Max Verstappen – Red Bull Racing |
| 2020 | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | 24.177 sec | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | Valtteri Bottas – Mercedes |
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | 4.074 sec | Valtteri Bottas – Mercedes | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes |
| 2018 | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | 20.593 sec | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | Daniel Ricciardo – Red Bull Racing |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | 3.490 sec | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes |
| 2016 | Max Verstappen – Red Bull Racing | 0.616 sec | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | Daniil Kvyat – Toro Rosso |
| 2015 | Nico Rosberg – Mercedes | 17.551 sec | Nico Rosberg – Mercedes | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes |
| 2014 | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | 0.636 sec | Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes | Sebastian Vettel – Red Bull Racing |
Hamilton Looking to Reclaim Past Glory in Spain
Lewis Hamilton sports an impressive resume in Barcelona, where he won five straight Spanish Grand Prix titles before getting dethroned by Max Verstappen. Hamilton’s intimate knowledge of the Barcelona circuit and past success certainly provide him with an edge in experience that most drivers don’t come close to.
But considering the struggles that Mercedes have had in keeping pace with both Red Bull drivers and Alonso, is it realistic to expect him to challenge for a seventh career win at this race?
You might've noticed W14 looks a little bit different in Monaco. 👀 Shov talks through our new upgrades and what we hope to achieve. 💪 pic.twitter.com/UfCc9q1BIg
— Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team (@MercedesAMGF1) May 26, 2023
After both Hamilton and his Silver Arrows teammate George Russell enjoyed good pace free of technical issues after making major upgrades prior to last week’s race, bargain hunters are certain to be attracted to Hamilton’s lucrative +2000 odds of returning to the winner’s circle. But with Hamilton finishing top six in each of the first six races of the season, and Russell accomplishing that feat for the second time in as many outings last week, the greater value can be found in the -150 odds of Mercedes producing a third straight double top six finish in Barcelona.
The Picks:
- Fernando Alonso fastest qualifier (+850)
- Mercedes double top six finish (-150)
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Daniel has been writing about sports and sports betting for over 23 years. The seasoned pro has contributed to the likes of Sports Illustrated, Sportsnet, NESN, Bleacher Report, OddsShark, the Globe and Mail, and The Nation magazine.
