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Formula One 2019 Japanese Grand Prix Odds & Picks

With Typhoon Hagibis rapidly approaching, severe weather is likely to disrupt the Japanese Grand Prix for the third time in 15 years. “Photo by [Morio] ([Wikipedia]) [CC License].”
  • Lewis Hamilton is a narrow +150 favorite to earn a sixth career win at the Japanese Grand Prix
  • Hamilton has posted nine wins this season, and sports a massive 73-point lead on the F1 Drivers Standings
  • Charles Leclerc sits second at +165 after posting wins in two of the past four races

Lewis Hamilton will be looking to extend his recent domination at the Japanese Grand Prix, when he hits the track at Suzuka Circuit for Sunday morning’s race (Oct. 13) perched as a narrow +150 favorite in the Formula One odds.

Odds to Win 2019 Japanese Grand Prix

Driver Odds
Lewis Hamilton +150
Charles Leclerc +165
Sebastian Vettel +275
Valtteri Bottas +700
Max Verstappen +750
Alexander Albon +10000
Carlos Sainz Jr. +100000
Daniel Ricciardo +100000
Lando Norris +100000
Nico Hulkenberg +100000

*All odds herein taken 10/09/19.

Hamilton Aims for Sixth Career Win in Japan

Hamilton has taken the checkered flag at Suzuka on five occasions including four of the past five years, leaving him just one win short of the race record held by Michael Schumacher, who earned six career Japanese Grand Prix wins.

The two-time defending Formula One is coming off his ninth win of the season two weeks ago at the Russian Grand Prix, and now holds a virtually insurmountable 73-point lead over Mercedes teammate Valtteri Bottas atop this season’s F1 Drivers Standings.

The 34-year-old has also dominated in qualifying at the Japanese Grand Prix. Hamilton started from the pole in each of his four recent victories at Suzuka, and joins Charles Leclerc as a +165 co-favorite to do it again this weekend.

Japanese Grand Prix Recent Winners

Year Driver Margin of Victory
2018 Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes 12.919 sec
2017 Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes 1.211 sec
2016 Nico Rosberg – Mercedes 4.978 sec
2015 Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes 18.964 sec
2014 Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes 9.180 sec

Typhoon Hagibis Likely to Wreak Havoc

Weather is likely to play a massive role this weekend, as Typhoon Hagibis rapidly approaches. The super typhoon is expected to hit the Suzuka area on Saturday, with winds reaching up to 140 mph, and threatening to wash out Saturday’s qualifying session.

It wouldn’t be the first time that the Japanese Grand Prix has been disrupted by a major storm. Race organizers were forced to move qualifying to Sunday due to severe on two previous occasions, in 2004 and 2010.

Hamilton also has experience in bad weather at Suzuka, qualifying third before being pushed back to eighth on the grid in 2010, and driving to victory in 2014 on a rain-soaked track in the aftermath of Typhoon Phanfone.

Odds to Take Pole Position at 2019 Japanese Grand Prix

Driver Odds
Lewis Hamilton +165
Charles Leclerc +165
Sebastian Vettel +225
Valtteri Bottas +700
Max Verstappen +1000
Alexander Albon +3300

Strong Qualifying Key to Success

However, strong qualifying has proven to be crucial to success at this race, with Japanese Grand Prix winners starting from the front row in all but two editions of the race since 1991. That’s good news for Leclerc, who closely trails Hamilton as a +165 second favorite in the Japanese Grand Prix odds.

The 21-year-old has been dominant in qualifying of late, taking the pole in each of the past four races, and on six occasions overall this season. Leclerc’s strong showing in qualifying has produced dividends on race day, with wins at Belgium and Italy, and podium finishes in all six of the races in which he has earned the pole position.

Vettel Looks to Recapture Past Glory

A strong track record of success at this race has also benefited Leclerc’s Ferrari teammate Sebastian Vettel. The four-time F1 champion has finished on the podium on seven previous occasions including four career victories, fueling his strong position in the odds to win the Japanese Grand Prix at +275.

Vettel has endured a shaky campaign in 2019, posting just win and reaching the podium in just three of his past nine races, and has started from the front row of the grid just once in his past five appearances.

Bottas, Verstappen Aim for First Win at Suzuka

Further down the Japanese Grand Prix odds, Bottas trails the favorites at +700, just ahead of Max Verstappen at +750, while Alexander Albon lags at a lengthy +10000.

Bottas turned in a career-best second-place finish last year at Suzuka, after qualifying alongside Hamilton on the front row, and has been a fixture on the podium this season, finishing top three in 12 of 16 races. That has left the 30-year-old Finn pegged as an attractive -120 wager to earn a podium finish at this weekend’s race.

Verstappen has reached the podium just once in his past four races after enjoying a sensational midseason stretch that produced wins at both Austria and Germany. The 22-year-old will likely enjoy considerable fan support in Japan driving for Red Bull Racing, whose engines are provided by Japanese automaker Honda. Verstappen will be looking to build on solid performances in each of his past three appearances at this race, which have produced a pair of second-place finishes and three straight starts from the second row, making him an attractive +175 bet to once again reach the podium.

Picks: Hamilton to take pole position (+165), Verstappen to finish top three (+175)

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