- After escaping with a narrow victory on a flat tire last weekend, Lewis Hamilton is a heavy favorite to win Sunday’s 70th Anniversary Grand Prix
- Hamilton’s short odds are fueled by his spectacular record of success at Silverstone
- However, a number of intriguing value bets are available for Sunday morning’s Formula 1 race
For a second straight race, the Silverstone Circuit will be the scene for Formula 1 action, with Sunday morning’s run of the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix (9:10 am ET, August 9th).
Lewis Hamilton is once again atop the odds as a -300 favorite. Hamilton has dominated at Silverstone, taking home the checkered flag in six of the past seven editions of the British Grand Prix.
Odds to Win 70th Anniversary Grand Prix
|Driver||Odds to Win||Odds to Finish Top Three||Odds to Finish Top Six||Odds to Finish Top 10|
|Carlos Sainz Jr.||+6600||+800||-120||-275|
Odds taken August 5, 2020
Tire Troubles Almost Spoil Hamilton’s Homecoming
His win in his return to Silverstone last weekend came as no surprise to anyone. Indeed, we made a wager on Hamilton to pull off the hat trick our best bet last week. While it appeared that Hamilton would be well on his way to seizing the pole position, recording the fastest lap, and winning the race for the third time in his past six British Grand Prix appearances, last week’s finish turned out to be more of a nail-biter than most fans expected.
Lewis hamilton finishing off the line with 3 running tires on British grand prix 🐐 pic.twitter.com/fUUZs0QZ71
— NE-MESSIS10 (@AasisCule) August 2, 2020
Hamilton grabbed the pole position for the fifth time in six years. After opening up a wide lead, the reigning F1 champion engaged in a duel with teammate Valtteri Bottas to see which of the two Mercedes drivers would claim the fastest lap.
Cashing in early on hat-track wagers proved to be the wise move as both Mercedes drivers were forced to slow down late in the race due to tire failure, with Bottas falling to 11th after blowing a tire, and Hamilton barely hanging on for the win after seeing one of his front tires disintegrate on the final lap. In a futile bid to catch Hamilton on the final lap, Max Verstappen smashed the track record while recording the fastest lap of the race.
Recent Winners at Silverstone
|Race||Winner||Margin of Victory||Pole Position||Fastest Lap|
|2020 British Grand Prix||Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes||5.856 sec||Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes||Max Verstappen – Red Bull Racing|
|2019 British Grand Prix||Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes||24.928 sec||Valtteri Bottas – Mercedes||Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes|
|2018 British Grand Prix||Sebastian Vettel – Ferrari||2.264 sec||Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes||Sebastian Vettel – Ferrari|
|2017 British Grand Prix||Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes||14.063 sec||Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes||Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes|
|2016 British Grand Prix||Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes||8.250 sec||Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes||Nico Rosberg – Mercedes|
|2015 British Grand Prix||Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes||10.956 sec||Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes||Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes|
Cause of Tire Trouble Remains Unclear
Mercedes were not the only team to endure tire failure. McLaren-Renault’s Carlos Sainz Jr. also saw his front left tire blow out late in the race. The Mercedes technical team vehemently denied that the tire failures suffered by Hamilton and Bottas were caused by the novel dual-axis steering (DAS) system deployed on the Silver Arrows. Pirelli, the manufacturer of all the blown-out tires, suggested that the decision to stick with the same tires for a long stint following the second safety car in last weekend’s race contributed to the failures.
Silverstone is a notoriously challenging track, both on man and machine, and the course layout particularly takes its toll on the front left tire, which is what failed in all three cases last weekend.
Nail-Biting Finish at British GP Fails to Shake Up Odds
So, what does this mean for this weekend’s running of the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix? Very little as far as the oddsmakers are concerned. In addition to being favored to claim a fourth straight victory this weekend, Hamilton is once again pegged as heavy -350 chalk to sit on the pole, and a +100 bet to record the fastest lap. In addition, the odds of any driver pulling off the hat track are slightly shorter than a week ago, listed at +225.
Silverstone installs new kerb at Becketts in response to tyre failures
— Motorsport Week (@MotorsportWeek) August 6, 2020
Given the stunning circumstances under which last week’s race ended, and uncertainty as to whether the tire issue has been addressed, wagering on the hat trick this time around is not for the faint of heart. However, in light of changes made to the track ahead of Sunday morning’s race, it may still be the best value bet of the weekend.
In response to requests from the FIA, track authorities at Silverstone have made modifications to the circuit, adding a 23-meter section of curb at the exit of turn 13, designed to keep drivers from running off the track at that location and causing tire damage.
An Unsung Homecoming for Lando Norris
While this weekend’s race is expected to be yet another Sunday drive for Hamilton, bettors are left with the challenge of unearthing value opportunities elsewhere in the F1 odds. Lando Norris is worthy of consideration.
TOP FIVE FINISHES: LANDO NORRIS 👀📈
2019 (21 races): 0
— Formula 1 (@F1) August 3, 2020
Silverstone is typically viewed as Hamilton’s home track, but this season’s two races in Britain are also a homecoming for Norris, who is a native of nearby Bristol, England. The 20-year-old has shown steady improvement in 2020, his second as a full-time Formula 1 driver with McLaren, with finishes among the top five in three of his four outings, including a fifth-place run last weekend.
With uncertainty over the tire issue lingering, Norris sits as a respectable -165 wager to finish among the top six, and an attractive +800 bet to reach the podium.
Racing Point’s Hot Start Hits a Wall
Things do not look quite so good for Racing Point. After a devastating week last week that saw Sergio Perez test positive for COVID-19 and his replacement behind the wheel, Nico Hulkenberg fail to start due to engine trouble, the British constructor’s fast start to the season came to a halt.
— Formula 1 (@F1) August 2, 2020
Without the benefit of a teammate on the track, Racing Point’s Lance Stroll was forced to settle for a ninth-place finish, but still joins Norris as a -165 bet to finish among the top six. Hulkenberg makes his return to Formula 1 amid limited expectations. The 32-year-old German finished 14th in the Formula 1 Drivers Standings last season, and faces a trial by fire in his first race driving the Pink Mercedes.
However, Hulkenberg enjoys a relative strong track record at Silverstone driving inferior cars, finishing among the top ten in five of his past successful starts in the British Grand Prix, and offers exceptional value as a +300 bet to finish top six on Sunday.
Picks: Grid position of winner: pole position (-150); Lando Norris to finish top three (+800); Nico Hulkenberg to finish top six (+300)
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