NASCAR Bank of America Roval 400 Odds, Picks & Predictions

• Reddick leads the pack at the ROVAL — but can he seal the deal?
• Four-time road course winner in 2025 Shane van Gisbergen starts second — danger alert.
• Who advances, who crashes, and who cashes — the ROVAL playoff drama starts here.

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It’s do-or-die time in the Round of 12, and the chaos factory known as the Charlotte ROVAL is clocked in for overtime. Tyler Reddick dropped the hammer in qualifying and snagged a surprise pole on what is his only clear shot at advancing. Behind him, Shane van Gisbergen — who’s won the last four road courses — rolls off second and would love nothing more than to wreck the playoff math for everyone else. The green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET on USA Network, and if history’s any guide, we’re about to watch 12 drivers audition for a group therapy session.

Bank of America Roval 400 Odds

*Odds available as of October 5, 2025 at 7:39 AM Eastern via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Shane van Gisbergen enters as the overwhelming favorite at -105, implying a 51.2% chance to win — a remarkably high number in a 37-car field. Tyler Reddick is second on the odds board at +450, which equates to an 18.2% win probability. No other driver is listed shorter than +850, highlighting just how dominant van Gisbergen has been on road courses throughout 2025.

One more race until the Round of 8. pic.twitter.com/8uwd8kQenk

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 4, 2025

Bank of America Roval 400 Race Preview

The Charlotte ROVAL serves as the ultimate battleground for the Round of 12 finale; a hybrid road-and-oval layout that tends to turn playoff pressure into havoc. Four drivers enter below the elimination line: Ross Chastain, Bubba Wallace, Tyler Reddick, and Austin Cindric. Above them, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Chase Briscoe, and Joey Logano currently occupy the final transfer spots in “safe” territory, though that label tends to evaporate quickly once the bumpers start flying.

Wallace, Reddick, and Cindric all find themselves in near must-win situations based on their current point deficits. Reddick, however, carries a glimmer of hope: he owns multiple career wins on road courses and had the qualifying speed to put his tub on the front row. The more volatile fight lies just inside the cutline, where only a handful of points separates Briscoe, Logano, and Chastain. One missed chicane or pit road penalty could swing the balance between elimination and advancement.

For four drivers, the #NASCARPlayoffs end today.

For eight drivers, a shot at the #Championship4 looms in the distance. pic.twitter.com/C54dKJayEI

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 5, 2025

Bank of America Roval 400 Best Bets

• William Byron Top-10 Finish (+110, DraftKings)
• William Byron over Michael McDowell (+100, DraftKings)

Our model projects William Byron to finish 6.9, which gives us strong value on a plus-money top-10 ticket. Michael McDowell, despite starting eight spots ahead, is projected at 12.7, creating another worthwhile opportunity in the head-to-head market.

On paper, Byron and McDowell’s road course résumés look similar — both are past winners when right turns are involved — but Byron holds the edge in equipment quality and pit crew performance. The only potential concern is whether Byron prioritizes stage points instead of committing to a race-winning pit cycle. That said, with a comfortable points buffer above the cutline, his team can afford to play the long game.

Last year at the ROVAL, Hendrick Motorsports had the field covered. Kyle Larson led 62 laps en route to the win, while Byron quietly logged a third-place finish with an average running position of 7.6. McDowell came home 15th, averaging 14.2 on track. Given Byron’s form, team strength, and postseason position, both of these wagers offer legitimate value.

• Chris Buescher over Michael McDowell (-110, DraftKings)

We’re going full fade on Mikey McDriver this afternoon. Buescher is one of the few drivers in the field who’s actually beaten Shane van Gisbergen head-to-head on a road course — a rare feat that says plenty about his composure and car control. Our model projects Buescher to finish 9.9, compared to McDowell’s 12.7, making this a small but meaningful edge worth playing.

While their season-long road course metrics are fairly similar, Buescher’s race execution stand out. He’s more consistent under green, and less mistake-prone in braking zones — all crucial factors at the ROVAL. When the algorithm flashes value, we don’t ask questions. We just click “submit.”