NASCAR Cook Out 400 Odds, Predictions & Expert Longshots (Aug. 16)

• CookOut 400 picks loaded with Bubba Wallace love and a classic Austin Dillon fade
• Denny Hamlin is the obvious favorite, but I dug deeper to find real betting value
• Check out the NASCAR odds, predictions and expert longshots for Saturday night’s CookOut 400

---

Tonight, NASCAR fires up the lights at Richmond Raceway for the Cook Out 400 — a 0.75-mile “D”-shaped oval with 14 degrees of banking in the corners. For those of you who didn’t bring your protractor to work, that basically means it’s flat. Real flat. The kind of flat that makes tires cry.

Speaking of which, this weekend’s tire combo feels like Goodyear’s version of a prank. The right sides are the “option” tire from last year, while the left sides are a slightly softer version of the standard tire. Translation: these things are going to disintegrate faster than my hopes and dreams after high school graduation.

Teams are already sweating the wear after practice — and with Richmond’s abrasive surface, tire allotments could become a circus act. With only two races left before the playoffs, our Cook Out 400 odds and predictions suggest longshots could shine through the chaos.

NASCAR Cook Out 400 Odds

Odds available at Draftkings as of Aug 16, 2025, 1:52pm for NASCAR’s Cook Out 400. Denny Hamlin is the betting favorite.

Hamlin’s +225 odds translate to a 30.8% implied probability of victory, while our longshot pick, Bubba Wallace, sits at just 4.3% implied probability (+2200).

That gap suggests potential value if you believe Wallace’s actual chances are higher than the market indicates.

NASCAR Cook Out 400 Predictions and Expert Longshot

If this race turns into a tire management clinic, there’s no doubting that Denny Hamlin is the rightful favorite. Hamlin is the Tim Duncan of tire conservation…boringly effective, relentlessly consistent, and impossible to fade. Nobody in the series saves rubber better, and he’s already got five Richmond trophies on the mantle (including last spring’s).

Post-practice and qualifying data have Hamlin graded as our top guy, but at +225 (DraftKings), that price is about as appealing as gas station sushi. He’s not Max Verstappen in 2023. We’ll pass.

Outright Winner Pick

• 0.1u – Bubba Wallace (+2200, Bet365)

NASCAR Matchup Bets

• 1.0u – Bubba Wallace over Kyle Busch (+100, DraftKings)
• 1.08u – Josh Berry over Austin Dillon (-108, BetRivers)

This matchup isn’t sexy. It won’t sell jerseys. But it’s completely mispriced. Pre-practice projections had Bubba pegged for a 9.9 finish compared to Kyle Busch’s 15.4. Then practice happened, and Busch lit up the stat sheet — fastest in every lap average category. But Richmond is a track where practice numbers can lie through their teeth, thanks to heavy track evolution.

.@BubbaWallace remembers last year’s chaotic @RichmondRaceway finish he had a front row seat for, and talks about racing without pressure being locked into the Playoffs.

“Motivation to win earlier in the season”#NASCAR pic.twitter.com/UNPeFdjvvk

— Peter Stratta (@peterstratta) August 15, 2025

Meanwhile, Wallace qualified 7th while Busch flopped to 28th. That’s a massive edge in track position and pit stall selection. Even better, Bubba will have speed in the neighborhood: teammate Tyler Reddick starts on the front row, while team owner Denny Hamlin rolls off 5th. I love a fast garage.

After factoring in qualifying, Wallace’s projection actually improved to 8.6, while Busch slipped further into the abyss at 17.4. And for anyone still worried about Bubba on short tracks, let me assure you: since 2024 in the 11-race sample, he’s outranked Kyle Busch across nearly every short-flat metric that matters.

Wallace vs Bucsch Stats

The choice is clear. Back Bubba.

You may also have noticed that I snuck in an Austin Dillon matchup fade. Nothing warms my heart quite like betting against this knucklehead. The market’s giving him respect for his “win” here last year — which only happened because he wrecked Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin on the final lap. If that’s a résumé booster, then I should list “beating Mario Kart on 50cc” on mine.

Now, Josh Berry isn’t exactly the knight you dream of riding into short-track battle with, but the numbers don’t lie. Dillon will roll off 11th while Berry starts 19th, but Berry has had the clear speed edge on short tracks since 2024.

Projections have Berry landing at 11.6 and Dillon wheezing home at 14.3. Advantage: Berry.

Berry vs Dillon Stats

That’s the card for Richmond. But if we’ve learned anything this season, it’s that the chaos doesn’t stop when the green flag drops. Tire wear, strategy calls, late cautions…that’s where the good stuff happens, and that’s when the sportsbooks start scrambling.

I’ll be posting live thoughts on Twitter (@speedwaysteve2) with maybe a pre-race degenerate dart or two. Don’t be the guy who wakes up Monday morning, sees the recap, and thinks, “man, I should’ve been there.” Come hang out — you don’t want to miss it.

Last Week’s Recap

Last weekend at Watkins Glen was…let’s call it “less than magical.” We weren’t exactly serenaded by the gambling gods like the Hungarian Grand Prix, but Alex Bowman’s late pass on a limping Kyle Busch was the kind of miracle you only get when McDonald’s actually puts all the sauces you asked for in the bag.

Bowman and Ty Gibbs both got trapped in the strategy blender, prioritizing stage points instead of a race result. A lesser man would double down on bad takes. I’m just admitting the misstep and moving on.