Upcoming Match-ups

NASCAR Ford EcoBoost 400 Race Odds & Picks

Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead
Who is the best bet to win the last NASCAR race of the season and take home the championship? Photo by Djkoko (Wiki Commons) [CC License].
  • The Ford EcoBoost 400 is set for Sunday, November 17th, at 2:30 PM ET
  • The race will take place at Homestead Miami Speedway in Miami, Florida
  • Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin are the final four drivers racing for the championship

There are four drivers still in the running for the NASCAR championship and one of them will be crowned on Sunday. The drivers head to Homestead Miami Speedway for the Ford EcoBoost 400 (Nov. 17 at 2:30 PM ET).

Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. are in the running. Who will win it all?

Odds to Win Ford EcoBoost 400

Driver Odds
Kyle Busch +275
Martin Truex Jr. +275
Kevin Harvick +300
Denny Hamlin +300
Kyle Larson +800
Joey Logano +1600
Brad Keselowski +2000
Chase Elliott +2500
Kurt Busch +5000
Ryan Blaney +5000
Alex Bowman +6000

Odds taken Nov. 13.

Hop On Harvick

Harvick was consistently the best driver of the championship contenders on the three high-tire-wear tracks this season with 177 laps led and an average finish of 7.3. The 2014 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series champion clinched his title with a victory at Homestead that season.

In terms of the Miami Speedway, specifically, Harvick has posted the best average finish of the “Championship 4” group over the past 14 races here. Over his last five starts at Homestead, he has finished no worse than fourth along with a win. He’s finished in the Top 10 in each of his last 11 starts here, too.

Trust In Truex Jr.

If there is one driver I feel confident can challenge Harvick in Miami, it’s Truex Jr. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota has consistently been one of the best on the circuit this season, leading the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series with seven victories.

After finishing in the top-six in each of his last four races, including a dominant win at Martinsville, the 2017 Cup champion has an excellent opportunity to take home another title. He has a win and a runner-up in his last two starts here, but finished 12th or worse in his three previous outings at Miami.

Bet On Brad Keselowski For A Top-10 Finish

While the best approach to betting this season finale seems to be to target drivers in championship contention, this week’s race winner doesn’t necessarily have to come out of the final four pool.

Keselowski hasn’t won since picking up a victory in Kansas back in May, but he has come close a number of times since, including four Top 5 finishes in his last nine starts. Keselowski has finished sixth or better in five of his last six outings here. He’s worth a look for a top 10 prop.

Past Five Winners at Ford EcoBoost 400

Year Winning Driver
2018 Joey Logano
2017 Martin Truex Jr.
2016 Jimmie Johnson
2015 Kyle Busch
2014 Kevin Harvick

Avoid Hamlin

As good as Hamlin has been this season, we are fading him this week for a few reasons. First of all, Harvick and Truex Jr. are each more appealing as betting options among the favorites to win. Second, Hamlin has the worst average driver finish here of the Championship 4.

He’s had some great starting spots of late, having the pole position in three of the last four races at Miami, but he still didn’t finish better than ninth in those outings. I’m not expecting him to do better this week.

Author Image
Discussion

Let's have fun and keep it civil.