NASCAR Geico 500 Odds & Picks

• The Geico 500 takes place on June 21st at Talladega Superspeedway in Lincoln, Alabama
• A lot of the big NASCAR names typically struggle at this track, so keep that in mind before placing your bets
• Denny Hamlin is favored after finishing top-six in four of his last seven at Talladega

Coming off a win at Homestead-Miami, Denny Hamlin is the favorite for this Sunday’s Geico 500 (June 21st). The race will take place at Talladega Superspeedway in Lincoln, Al, with the starting time set for 3:00 pm ET.

Known as NASCAR’s biggest and baddest track, a lot of the big-name drivers struggle here. That being the case, who is a good bet to win this week?

NASCAR Geico 500 Odds

Odds taken June 17th.

A Note About Talladega

I usually start off with our top pick among the favorites in this section, but I am changing it up this week. For those who don’t bet NASCAR all that regularly, you’ll want to be really careful with most of the top drivers on Sunday as many of them don’t thrive at Talladega Superspeedway.

For example, you might see Brad Keselowski at +1100 and think there’s some value but his last four results here are 13th or worse. As for Kevin Harvick (+1800), he’s finished 17th or worse in five of his last six at Talladega. Kyle Busch (+1200) has been 10th or worse in five straight and Truex Jr. (+1800) has been 13th or worse in eight straight.

If you get a little wide-eyed seeing some of the biggest names further down the board, now you know why.

Chase Elliott Worth A Look

Although I do like him more for a top-10 finish than the win, Elliott is a decent flier for outright bets, too. He’s placed eighth or better in three of his last four here, including a win in the spring race last year. He only has eight starts at  Talladega, but he has finished in the top-eight spots in half of those starts.

Overall, he’s really on a roll of late; he’s finished second, fifth, and eighth in his last three starts. Looking further back, he has now placed in the top eight in eight of his last 10 races this season with a win in Charlotte. He’s performing really well right now and I think that continues here.

Aric Almirola For A Top 10?

Almirola is coming off a fifth-place finish last week – his best result of the season – and now he makes the turn for one of his best tracks. He has seven straight finishes in the top 10 at Talladega. Over his last seven starts here, he has placed fourth, ninth, first, seventh, fifth, fourth, and eighth.

He rarely leads laps, which is a concern, but that consistency is a good sign for a top-10 prop bet on Almirola.

Avoid Logano

I’m starting to sound like a broken record, but I’ve been off of Logano for weeks now and telling others to steer clear. The difference this week is that he actually has a fairly strong track record at this track with three wins and six top-five finishes in his last nine starts here.

While it is possible that he gets back on track this week, Logano’s last four starts saw him finish 27th, 4th, 10th and 21st. I wouldn’t bet on him to win outright.