NASCAR Jack Link’s 500 Odds, Start Time & Predictions

• NASCAR Jack Link’s 500 takes the green flag this Sunday from the Talladega Superspeedway in Lincoln, AL
• Zane Smith won the pole, but will he even be a factor in this race? 
• Below, see my NASCAR Jack Link’s 500 odds, start time, and predictions

The NASCAR Cup Series took a week off and returns for the tenth points event this Sunday, April 27th, at the NASCAR Jack Link’s 500. The green flag drops just after 3:00 pm ET, with live coverage once more on FOX and the Fox Sports App.

Talladega is a Superspeedway that spans 2.66 miles! Everything feels like a giant chess match with lap times running in the 51 to 53 second range. Now, the stage setup is 60-60-68. It is one of those races that can feature a lot of cautions. Projections are suggesting more than last year’s four (21 laps).

The table below lists the Jack Link’s 500 odds (winner, top three, and top five) for the favorites and maybe a racer a little more down the aisle. Under the table, I have set out my Jack Link’s 500 predictions and best picks.

NASCAR Jack Link’s 500 Odds

At +700 odds, the implied probability for Ryan Blaney to win stands at 12.5%. Joey Logano rolls in at 9.09%, with three others still at 7.69%. Kyle Larson (+1500) is currently the +300 favorite in the NASCAR Cup Series odds.

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Odds as of Apr. 27 (post-qualifying) at DraftKings Sportsbook. Register with the DraftKings promo code to wager on the Jack Link’s 500. 

NASCAR Jack Link’s 500 Start Time & Race Details

NASCAR Jack Link’s 500 Predictions

Again, the weather works out with dry conditions and temperatures around 85 degrees. Qualifying was surprising only because Zane Smith jumped the field and took the pole by 0.132 seconds over Kyle Busch and 0.135 seconds over Joey Logano. Seven of the top 10 drivers rode Ford. That part is not a surprise especially at Talladega.

Honestly, there is no dominant team at Talladega for the Spring race. Tyler Reddick stole this race on the last lap in 2024 when a chain collision wreck allowed him to sneak past Brad Keselowski. Team Penske did win four times in six tries from 2016 to 2021. However, times are different now.

The track features 33 degree banking on the turns and 2 degree banking on the straights. It feels like a high-shaped bowl at crazy speeds when one combines the 16.5 degree bank on the tri-oval frontstretch.

Alas, the hope is for fewer wrecks like the previous Spring.

Again, the chess match typically starts during the 68 lap final stage. That allows for draft-bump racing and the chance for more chaos. If Kyle Busch is close, I believe this is the time he ends his drought of 66 races without a win.

• NASCAR Jack Link’s 500 Prediction to Win: Kyle Busch (+1200 at DraftKings)

A Few More Predictions for Talladega

Hey, I like to look at the race props from time to time. Okay, that may be a lot. However, the movement here is intriguing from week-to-week. Superspeedways are different from what anyone typically sees. Two weeks ago the props were almost predictable. Now, anything can happen. Everyone assumes the “collector” will come but no one knows when. Collector is a nice way of describing one big, huge wreck.

Winning manufacturer is a coin flip between Ford (+125) and Chevy (+130. Toyota is a the longer shot at +340. If one is looking for a driver prop. Brad Keselowski is virtually even with Kyle Larson. Both are at -115. With how Keselowski often finds a way to the front, if he can stay out of wrecks at the end, the Ford will end up better than the Chevy here.