NASCAR Mobil 1 301 Odds, Predictions & Longshot Picks

• Penske Power Up Front: Joey Logano starts on pole with teammate Ryan Blaney alongside.
• Bubba vs. Ty: Wallace has been a improving on the shorties this year, while Gibbs is still inventing new ways to lose.
• Read below for two expert picks for the Mobil 1 301 in New Hampshire.

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Joey Logano snagged the pole for Sunday’s Mobil 1 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, giving Team Penske the prime parking spots up front. He’ll have teammate Ryan Blaney alongside him on the front row, with pseudo-teammate Josh Berry starting third and Tyler Reddick rolling off fourth. The green flag drops Sunday at 2 p.m. ET on USA Network.

Below, I have set out the Mobil 1 301 odds (winner, top five, and top ten), followed by my Mobil 1 301 picks and predictions.

Mobil 1 301 Odds

Oddsmakers have installed Ryan Blaney as the betting favorite with a 23.81% implied win probability. Joey Logano sits second on the board at 16.67%, sharing that number with last week’s winner, Christopher Bell.

Odds as of 8:10am at DraftKings Sportsbook. See all the available DraftKings deposit methods.

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Some will need to climb their way forward.

Six playoff drivers will start outside the top 10 tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/tBexpZaCka

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) September 20, 2025

Mobil 1 301 Predictions

Goodyear is bringing the same tire compound we saw earlier this season at Richmond. That one gave us entertaining racing with some actual lap-time falloff…a rarity these days…so here’s hoping it delivers again on The Magic Mile, a 1.058-mile flat oval with all the charm of a DMV parking lot.

While we’re still waiting for full menus across the market, a few brave sportsbooks have hung offerings.

• Carson Hocevar over Alex Bowman (-121, BetRivers)

Our projections spit out Hocevar at an 11.5 average finish compared to Bowman’s 15.2. They’ll start sixth and seventh, respectively, but the long-run data tilts toward Hocevar. He ranked 8th in extended practice runs, while Bowman slogged around at 19th. On comparable tracks since 2024, Hocevar averages more fast laps (3.9 vs. 2.0 per race) and laps led (1.3 vs. 0.1). The margins aren’t massive, but nearly four projected finishing positions is plenty to fire.

• Bubba Wallace over Ty Gibbs (-136, BetRivers)

We’ve got Bubba projected at 11.6 versus young Tyrone Gibbs’ 14.8. And look — Gibbs has plenty of raw speed, but his race craft could use a tune-up. He’s invented creative new ways to lose races — missing pit road at Bristol last weekend while leading being the most recent entry in his blooper reel.

This post did not age well …

A wild sequence of events for the No. 54. https://t.co/4P6tciX12q pic.twitter.com/jXszXDN7TT

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) September 14, 2025

Wallace, meanwhile, has become a real headache for the field on short tracks. Third at Martinsville, sixth at Iowa, and he looked like a world-beater at Richmond before a comedy-of-errors pit sequence saw his wheel literally fall off. Even so, Wallace led 123 laps and banked 25 fast laps. That’s not luck, that’s pace.