NASCAR Quaker State 400 Predictions, Odds & Longshots to Bet (Sunday, Sep. 8)

• NASCAR Quaker State 400 goes green this Sunday at the reconfigured Atlanta Motor Speedway
• William Byron leads the way in the NASCAR odds as he looks to add a third Atlanta trophy to his collection
• Below, see NASCAR Quaker State 400 predictions, odds and longshot NASCAR picks

The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs kick off this Sunday, September 8th with the Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. The green flag drops at 3 PM ET with live coverage on USA Network.

This reconfigured 1.54-mile track now races more like a superspeedway, setting the stage for an unpredictable and action-packed start to the playoffs. In February, Daniel Suárez edged out Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch by mere inches in one of the closest finishes in NASCAR history.

The oddsmakers are expecting more of the same, with several drivers bunched at the top of the board:

NACRA Quake State 400 Odds

At +1000 odds (10/1), the implied probability for co-favorites Ryan Blaney, Kyle Busch, and Joey Logano is 9.09% each.

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Odds as of Sept. 8 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Register with the DraftKings promo code to wager on the Quaker State 400. 

NASCAR Quaker State 400 Predictions

While all eyes will be on Daniel Suárez to see if he can recreate his February magic, the smart money is on William Byron at +1200 to be the last man standing on Sunday. The 25-year-old Hendrick Motorsports wheelman already has two Atlanta wins in his back pocket, flexing his muscle at the reconfigured venue.

Toss in his Daytona 500 triumph to kickstart the season, and it’s clear Byron has the superspeedway package figured out. His 6.8 average finish in the last five Atlanta races is tops among active drivers.

Welcome @WilliamByron to the top five. pic.twitter.com/InGnre9f9F

— Hendrick Motorsports (@TeamHendrick) September 2, 2024

In a race likely to be a war of attrition, Byron’s ability to sidestep disaster and put himself in position to pounce late should serve him well. The +1200 price tag offers solid value for a driver with a proven Atlanta track record.

Looking for a top 5 bet? Cast your lot with Ross Chastain at +250. The Trackhouse Racing pilot will be out for redemption after getting squeezed out of the playoffs and has the Atlanta chops to get it done.

Chastain was a Daytona 500 contender and has a pair of runner-up finishes in his last four Atlanta starts. His 7.8 average finish in that span is second only to Byron. Expect the No. 1 Chevy to be a staple at the sharp end of the field.

• Best Bet to Win: William Byron (+1200 at DraftKings)
• Top 5 Finish: Ross Chastain (+250 at BetMGM)

NASCAR Quaker State 400 Longshots

If you’re the type that likes to swing for the fences, Corey LaJoie is worth a hard look at +5500. The Spire Motorsports shoe has become the underdog king at Atlanta, logging two top-5s in the last five races, including a heartbreaking loss after leading at the white flag in July 2022.

LaJoie is scrapping for a 2025 ride, and his ATL performances show he’s not afraid to put it all on the line at these high-stakes superspeedways. At 55/1 odds, he’s the definition of risk/reward.

This guy loves returning to Atlanta.@CoreyLaJoie | @GainbridgeSport pic.twitter.com/MStJIiOTY2

— Spire Motorsports (@SpireMotorsport) September 7, 2024

I’m also intrigued by Todd Gilliland at +3500 to shock the world. The son of former Cup driver David Gilliland was the class of the field in February, pacing the pack for a race-high 58 circuits before fading to 19th.

Still, his 8.5 average running position was 3rd-best and he’s shined at other drafting tracks in 2024 – front row at the Coke Zero Sugar 400, a top-10 at Talladega, laps led at Daytona. Gilliland’s 14.0 average finish on superspeedways this season is 6th-best in the series.

If the No. 38 Ford can survive to the end, Gilliland could be in the mix for a monumental upset. He’s my true NASCAR Quaker State 400 sleeper at 35/1 odds.

NASCAR Longshot Picks:

• Corey LaJoie (+5500)
• Todd Gilliland (+3000)