NASCAR South Point 400 Picks, Predictions, Odds & How to Watch Las Vegas Speedway Race

• Hamlin on pole: Vegas might finally reward a guy who’s been rolling all season
• Reddick & Elliott: Quietly positioned to cash while the books overrate a playoff pest
• Playoff drama ahead: Vegas is set to shake up the Round of 8 — read below for our top fades and value plays

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The Round of 8 fires up in Sin City, where the South Point 400 will deal the first hand of the semifinal round. Denny Hamlin starts on the pole, where he’ll be joined by 2025’s surprise qualifying ace, Chase Briscoe. Christopher Bell and Chase Elliott share the second row, which sounds less like a NASCAR lineup and more like a pair of dudes you’d see covering Morgan Wallen songs in a Freemont street bar.

We go green at 5:30 pm Eastern. The desert air, thin margins and – even worse – pit strategy will decide who cashes in first on the road to Phoenix.

South Point 400 Odds

Four drivers are priced at +550 or shorter to win: Kyle Larson (+350), Denny Hamlin (+450), Christopher Bell (+450), and William Byron (+550). No other drivers are shorter than +800. Those same four are the only odds-on favorites in the top-five finish odds.

Odds as of 9:06am, October 12 at DraftKings. Claim the DraftKings promo code to bet on the South Point 400.

Ryan Blaney (+386) is the outright favorite in the odds to win the NASCAR Cup Series this season, followed closely by Hamlin (+426), Larson (+449), and Bell (+494)

How to Watch South Point 400

For viewers in the United States, the South Point 400 will air live on USA Network and HBO Max at 2:30 pm PT/5:30 pm ET.

Viewers in Canada can watch the race live on TSN, or stream it live on Fubo TV.

South Point 400 Betting Preview

Las Vegas Motor Speedway is the last of the cookie-cutter ovals we’ll see this season. It is a 1.5-mile tri-oval with 20 degrees of banking and plenty of character. Goodyear is rolling out the same right-side tire compound that debuted in Kansas two weeks ago. It is being paired with a left-side compound that’s been a frequent flyer in 2025. That particular Kansas race will be our best comp, though we’ll also be pulling data from the other mile-and-a-half tracks over the past two seasons.

After Charlotte’s ROVAL chewed up and spit out Ross Chastain, Austin Cindric, Tyler Reddick, and Bubba Wallace, the playoff deck has been reshuffled. Christopher Bell (-4), Chase Elliott (-14), Chase Briscoe (-14), and Joey Logano (-24) now make up the undercard below the cutline, while Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, and William Byron are the four sitting (relatively) safe…at least until Vegas does what Vegas does.

A new round means new opportunities …

One of which being an opportunity to punch your ticket to the #Championship4. 😏 pic.twitter.com/LPNGd1M5jN

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 12, 2025

South Point 400 Picks & Best Bets

• Tyler Reddick over Joey Logano (+110, DraftKings)
• Chase Elliott over Joey Logano (-115, DraftKings)

Let’s fade Joey Logano, the playoff pest that laughs in the face of logic, stats, and mildly aggressive wishful thinking. On our strongest Vegas comparative track — same tire compound, same type of chaos — Reddick and Elliott outperformed him in every meaningful metric. That said, one race result is never enough to justify a bet.

Kansas Fall 2025 Key Speed Matrics

Digging a little deeper across all 2025 comparative tracks, the story doesn’t change: Logano isn’t flashing any lights that say “Potential Vegas winner” today.

2025 Comparable Track Speed Metrics

Alright, alright — fine. But Logano was the Series Champion in 2024. You probably want all that history, too. Here’s the data. Spoiler alert: it doesn’t save him and our fade stands.

2024/25 Comparable Track Speed Metrics

The story is clear: Joey Logano is getting a power-ratings bump among bookmakers simply because he’s a playoff driver. If it’s a choice between trusting their numbers or ours, we’ll take ours every time. We’ve got Logano projected to finish 16.1, Reddick 6.6, and Elliott 10.5. We’ll look to capitalize on the DraftKings bean-counter’s oversight and snag a few prices that are too good to pass up.