NASCAR Toyota/Save Mart 350 Odds & Picks

• The Toyota/Save Mart 350 is scheduled for Sunday, June 23rd at 3:00 p.m. ET
• The race will be held at Sonoma Raceway in California
• Kevin Harvick won this race in 2017 and finished second in 2018

After a week off, the NASCAR drivers will turn their attention to the Toyota/Save Mart 350 in California this weekend. The race will be held at Sonoma Raceway on Sunday, June 23rd at 3:00 p.m. ET.

Joey Logano is coming off a controversial win at the FireKeepers Casino 400. Is he a good bet to win this week again or is there value elsewhere?

2019 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Odds

*Odds taken 06/19/19

Bet Truex Jr. to Win the Race

With three wins over his last seven races, Martin Truex Jr. is blazing hot heading into this event. There was some concern after a 35th-place result at Pocono on June 2nd, but he rebounded well with a third-place result at Michigan last week.

Considering his past performance at Sonoma Raceway, there is a very good chance the hot streak continues with another strong outing this weekend. Truex has finished fifth or better in three of his last six starts at this track, including wins both last year and in 2015.

Harvick for a Top 5

The thinking with Harvick each week is that he’s bound to break through, but it still hasn’t happened this year. That’s why if you’re betting him, he’s a better play in the top 5 finish prop rather than to win outright.

At any rate, Harvick is averaging a finish of 1.5 in the Sonoma races since the start of 2017. That’s the best of any active driver over that span. He’s also led 26.82% of the laps over that time. He won this race in 2015 and has six top 5’s overall at this track. Those all bode well for a good finish this week.

Jimmie Johnson Worth a Flier

While Johnson has struggled with consistency all season, there are a couple of reasons why he’s worth a flier here on the top 10 prop. First of all, Johnson has nine top 10 finishes at Sonoma Raceway on his resume, including a win here in 2010.

Second, he is one of the most experienced drivers for this course in this week’s field, which should be important as we take a rare venture away from the traditional oval tracks.

His last five finishes are 15th, 19th, eighth, 15th and sixth, so he’s been in and around the top 10 area. Given the odds, he’s worth a flier here.

Pass on Kurt Busch

One driver that I’ll be avoiding this week is Kurt Busch. Despite an impressive runner-up finish at the FireKeepers Casino 400, it’s hard to go against the fact that Busch has hasn’t won here since 2011. He’s also yet to win this season.

A lot of people will be tempted to go with him as his 6.50 average finish at Sonoma since the start of 2017 is the sixth-best among active drivers but he’s only led 0.45% of those laps. I’m not expecting a win here.