Updated Daytona 500 Odds, Predictions & Best Bets

• Updated Daytona 500 odds have Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin as co-favorites at +900
• William Byron crashed in his Duel and drifted from 10/1 to 14/1, while Alex Bowman quietly moved from 18/1 to 28/1
• Keep reading for our best Daytona 500 predictions and best bets for Sunday’s race

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Daytona is a liar.

It tells you qualifying speed and Duel finishes matter. It also tells you single-car practice speed means something. Then, on lap 94, someone throws a late block and your chalky 8/1 ticket becomes a piece of modern art.

Now it’s even playing games with the clock.

The Daytona 500 start time has officially been moved up to 1:30 PM EST because of weather concerns. The race will still air on FOX. Daytona does not just create unpredictability on track…it does it on the schedule too.

NEWS: The start time for the #DAYTONA500 has been moved up to 1:30 p.m. ET on Sunday.

Watch The Great American Race on FOX or listen on @MRNRadio and @SiriusXMNASCAR Radio. pic.twitter.com/stzthusnjA

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) February 14, 2026

This is a 2.5-mile asphalt superspeedway with 31 degrees of banking and 41 cars traveling 195 mph in tight formation. The Big One is always waiting. Yet every year, the betting market treats this event a little too much like a standard intermediate race.

It is not.

This is controlled chaos with a big trophy at the end.

Updated Daytona 500 Odds

Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin sit as co-favorites at +900, implying a 10 percent win probability. Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano trail close behind at +1000, while Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott round out the top tier at +1200. In a 41-car drafting race, even the favorites carry single-digit implied odds.

Odds available at DraftKings as of 2/14 at 8:51 PM ET. Sign up with the DraftKings promo code to wager on Sunday’s Daytona 500.

Biggest Daytona 500 Odds Movers

William Byron: 10/1 to 14/1

Byron crashed in his qualifying Duel. He’ll fire off in a backup car on Sunday, and the market collectively gasped.

He opened at 10/1 and now sits at 14/1.

Let’s be honest. If this were a small team, the move would make more sense. But this is Hendrick Motorsports. Their backup cars have better funding than most Cup organizations’ primary builds.

The adjustment feels emotional. Somewhat understandable, but emotional. Daytona doesn’t care which VIN number you are driving…it only cares whether you are still moving on Lap 198.

Corey Heim: 90/1 to 50/1

Heim impressed in single-car qualifying on Wednesday and shortened to 50/1 after opening much longer.

Bookmakers believe the Toyota camp brought serious speed. Heim rolls off 29th, which at Daytona is hardly a disadvantage. The move from deep longshot to mid-tier longshot reflects optimism for last year’s Truck Series champion.

Alex Bowman: 18/1 to 28/1

This is the one that made us raise an eyebrow. Bowman did nothing wrong. No crash, no drama and no visible weakness.

And yet his number quietly drifted from 18/1 to 28/1 like we wouldn’t notice.

When a driver performs fine and the market pushes him out anyway, that is usually a sportsbook managing liability elsewhere. This move is not performance-based.

Sometimes you get punished for doing nothing. Ask anyone who has ever ignored a polite request to take out the trash and then tried to explain how they were “about to.”

In most households, that does not create value.

On the odds board, occasionally, it does.

You still need to take out the trash, though.

Kyle Larson: 18/1 to 12/1

Larson finished third in his Duel and the market responded immediately. The 18/1 we highlighted in our opening price and picks article is long gone.

This is classic Daytona steam. A strong Duel result, elite equipment, visible speed, and the money follows. Larson is capable, but 12/1 in a 41-car drafting race is a much tighter window.

The value that existed at open no longer does.

Daytona 500 Predictions & Best Bets

The field is set for The Great American Race. pic.twitter.com/W072MC2hGV

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) February 13, 2026

Alex Bowman to Win (+2800 at DraftKings)

This number drifted too far.

If the sharper side of the market decides to wake up Sunday morning, this probably lands closer to 22/1 by green flag. If it does not, we are comfortable being early.

Bowman sits as our 13th-rated driver and is priced in the 17/18/19 range. The new-look Chevrolets were racey in the Duels. Chase Elliott won Duel No. 2. When Hendrick Motorsports unloads speed at a superspeedway, it usually spreads across the shop.

Bowman is not flashy or a polarizing interview. He doesn’t trend on social media for breathing.

That is totally fine with us. Outright tickets are not popularity contests.

Alex Bowman over Josh Berry (-115 at Caesars)

If we believe the outright number is mispriced, this is the logical extension. This is the same thesis with less dependence on surviving a last-lap accordion effect.

Cole Custer over Ty Dillon (-115 at Caesars)

Let’s address the elephant wearing sunglasses.

Custer closed last season with two straight top-fives on drafting tracks, including one at Daytona in the fall. He understands positioning and patience.

Ty Dillon simply exists.

This is a form and trajectory play. One driver is trending forward on superspeedways, the other is still Ty Dillon.

We will take forward.

Daytona 500 Best Bets:

• Alex Bowman to Win (+2800 at DraftKings)
• Alex Bowman over Josh Berry (-115 at Caesars)
• Cole Custer over Ty Dillon (-115 at Caesars)

For more ways to bet on the Daytona 500, check out the best online sportsbook options available.