Updated NASCAR Pennzoil 400 Odds & Final Predictions for Sunday’s Race

• The SpeedwaySteve2 model finds value in early Pennzoil 400 matchups, highlighted by Kyle Larson’s dominance at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
• Practice speed and comparable-track metrics point toward Tyler Reddick and Chase Elliott as strong matchup targets
• Read below for updated NASCAR Pennzoil 400 odds and final predictions for Sunday’s race

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The first four weeks of the NASCAR season have been difficult on spreadsheets.

Superspeedways don’t respect them, road courses ignore them, and short tracks occasionally mock them.

But this weekend, the NASCAR schedule finally delivers a track where our numbers get their revenge.

The Cup Series heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Pennzoil 400, a 1.5-mile intermediate where speed, tire management and clean air usually decide the outcome. With 267 laps scheduled, there will be plenty of opportunities for the fastest cars to prove our spreadsheets right.

And around SpeedwaySteve2 headquarters, that’s exactly what we’re hoping for.

What happens in Vegas, happens at full throttle.

Only one driver is leaving Sin City as a winner. pic.twitter.com/OIT3qBK2kA

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) March 10, 2026

One quick note before we get into the bets. When this column says “we,” it’s referring to the SpeedwaySteve2 model and analysis that Steve and I use when handicapping these races. The lawyers would like everyone to know we are not speaking on behalf of SportsBettingDime.

Which is probably for the best. If they were responsible for everything that comes out of SpeedwaySteve2 headquarters, their insurance premiums would triple.

Updated Pennzoil 400 Odds

Odds available at DraftKings as of 1:22 a.m. ET on Sunday, March 5. Kyle Larson is the Pennzoil 400 favorite at +400, implying a win probability of 20%. Shop the best online sportsbooks for the top NASCAR odds.

Final Pennzoil 400 Predictions

First things first: a quick thank you to BetRivers, who were the only sportsbook brave enough to post matchup lines at this hour. The rest of the books will roll them out in the morning.

Fortunately for them, we will likely be asleep by then, recovering from the 3:00 a.m. ET Formula 1 Chinese Grand Prix caffeine marathon.

Speeding toward Sin City. pic.twitter.com/JWboGEM2a4

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) March 12, 2026

Kyle Larson over Christopher Bell (-129, BetRivers)

Kyle Larson shows up at Las Vegas the way certain golfers show up at Augusta. The track simply fits.

Larson qualified fifth and posted the best overall practice session, while our model moved his projected finish from 3.2 to 2.6 after the data came in. His Vegas track record over the last several races has been borderline absurd, with elite metrics in fastest laps, laps led and average running position.

Christopher Bell starts on the pole and ranked ninth in practice, but the model still projects him back around 8.3 at the finish.

Starting position gives Bell the early advantage, but Larson’s long-run pace at this track has been consistently elite. If the race settles into longer green-flag runs, Larson should have the faster car.

Tyler Reddick over Ty Gibbs (-106, BetRivers)

This matchup largely comes down to overall pace.

Tyler Reddick qualified seventh and ranked seventh in practice, while the model projects him around 5.9 after originally sitting at 5.6 earlier in the week. Reddick has been consistently strong on intermediate tracks and the No. 45 team continues to show competitive long-run speed.

Ty Gibbs starts third and ranked third in practice, which explains why this line sits close to even money. The model still sees Gibbs finishing deeper in the field, projecting him at 11.3 after originally sitting at 13.7 earlier in the week.

The longer-term intermediate-track data also leans toward Reddick. In 20 comparable track starts since 2024, Reddick has two wins, averaging 22.8 fastest laps and 21.3 laps led per race while posting a 9.6 average running position, which ranks second among the group.

Gibbs, meanwhile, is still searching for his first Cup Series win on any track type, for that matter. Over the same sample, he averages 8.5 fastest laps and 7.5 laps led, with a 14.1 average running position.

Gibbs should run well early with the track position advantage, but over a full race distance, the model and the underlying speed metrics both give Reddick the edge.

Chase Elliott over Ross Chastain (-129, BetRivers)

Chase Elliott qualified 15th but posted one of the strongest practice sessions in the field, tied for third overall. That performance pushed his projected finish in the model from 11.9 to 9.9, signaling a meaningful improvement once the practice data was incorporated.

Ross Chastain qualified 17th and ranked 16th in practice, which aligns closely with the model’s projection around 14.0 for Sunday’s race.

The longer-term intermediate-track data also nudges this matchup toward Elliott. In 20 comparable track starts since 2024, both drivers have two wins, but Elliott holds the edge in the underlying speed metrics. Over that span, Elliott averages 7.3 fastest laps per race compared to Chastain’s 4.0, along with 11.7 laps led to Chastain’s 8.6.

Elliott also carries a slight advantage in average running position (13.3 vs. 14.1), reinforcing the model’s preference for the No. 9 in this matchup.

With stronger practice speed, a higher projected finish and better long-run metrics on comparable tracks, Elliott becomes the preferred side here.

Kyle Busch over Brad Keselowski (-114, BetRivers)

Kyle Busch quietly showed solid speed during practice.

Busch ranked 10th overall in practice, and the model improved his projected finish slightly from 12.4 to 11.8 after the data came in.

Brad Keselowski qualified 28th and ranked 23rd in practice, which aligns with the model’s projection around 18.7.

Both drivers start deeper in the field, but Busch’s stronger practice speed and higher projection make him the preferred side.