Soccer Odds: Mid-Season Title and Relegation Chances

Now that Europe’s major soccer leagues are approaching the halfway point of the 2016-17 season and the Champions League and Europa League are entering the knockout stages, it’s time to take a fresh look at the favorites for the coveted titles — and also the teams likely to be relegated.

The smoke is starting to clear in the domestic leagues and the favorites are starting to separate themselves from the pack. The teams at the bottom are starting to panic and scrambling to fight off relegation.

The draws for the first knockout round of the Champions League and Europa League have been set and some clear favorites for those competitions are also starting to emerge.

English Premier League Odds

Odds to win 2016-17 title

Chelsea: 10/11

Arsenal: 4/1

Manchester City: 5/1

Liverpool: 7/1

Manchester United: 33/1

Tottenham: 33/1

Odds to be relegated in 2016-17

Burnley: 10/11

Sunderland: 1/2

Hull City: 1/4

The last few weeks have seen Manchester City and Liverpool suffer some unexpected losses, allowing Chelsea to pull ahead. Currently, the Blues are three points clear of Arsenal, six clear of Liverpool, and seven clear of Man City. Until recently, Chelsea and City were equal favorites, but now the Gunners pose the biggest threat to Chelsea’s aspirations.

At the other end of the table, Swansea, Hull and Sunderland sit uncomfortably in the relegation zone. Each team has only managed to win three of fifteen games so far. The only source of comfort is that there are quite a few teams having a disastrous 2016-17 season. There are currently five teams in the Premier League with only three wins this season and only six points separate thirteenth and twentieth place. A win for any team in the relegation zone would see them leap-frogging straight out of it.

Spanish La Liga Odds

Odds to win 2016-17 title

Real Madrid: 4/9

Barcelona: 7/4

Atletico Madrid: 50/1

Odds to be relegated in 2016-17

Granada: 1/6

Osasuna: 1/6

Sporting de Gijón: 5/6

Real Madrid are pulling away right now. They have the best offensive and defensive stats in La Liga this season, and are six points clear of second-place Barcelona. Barca pose the only real threat to Real but have had a few unlucky draws in the last few rounds and suffered two upset losses early in the season.

At the bottom of La Liga lie Granada and Osasuna, both with only one win in fifteen games. We’re not even halfway through the season but they may as well start packing their bags and preparing for the Segunda División. Sporting has a much better chance of pulling themselves out of relegation, potentially need just a draw to pass Valencia and move out of the bottom three. 

German Bundesliga Odds

Odds to win 2016-17 title

Bayern Munich: 1/6

RB Leipzig: 8/1

Dortmund: 25/1

Odds to be relegated in 2016-17

Darmstadt: 1/10

Ingolstadt: 11/8

Hamburger SV: 11/8

Bayern Munich may be the overwhelming favorite to take the Bundesliga this season, but currently they are tied on points with newcomer RB Leipzig, a team that was founded in 2009 and was only just promoted to the Bundesliga this season. The RB Leipzig story is no Leicester City-esque fairy tale. The team was started by a billionaire co-founder of Red Bull, and by circumventing the norms (and arguably the laws) of the Bundesliga, managed to build a world-class team in a very short period of time. The two top teams will face off in two weeks, which could be the deciding moment of the season.

In the relegation zone, Darmstadt, Ingolstadt, and Hamburg have just two wins apiece in fourteen games. At the moment, their best hope of escaping relegation is to overtake a broken Wolfsburg side, who are only two points away from the bottom.

Italian Serie A Odds

Odds to win 2016-17 title

Juventus: 1/6

Roma: 7/1

Napoli: 16/1

Odds to be relegated in 2016-17

Palermo: 1/9

Crotone: 1/8

Pescara: 4/11

It looks like Juventus are well on their way to sealing their sixth consecutive Serie A title. Juve are currently four points ahead of second-place Roma and seven points ahead of Milan. In a league that is growing less competitive by the season, Juventus are the one shining hope for Italy in international competitions.

Palermo (six points) are at the bottom with one win and a -20 goal difference. Also in the relegation zone are Crotone (nine points) and Pescara (eight points), who are not doing much better. With 11 points, seventeenth-place Empoli are the only other team facing a serious threat of relegation.

French Ligue 1 Odds

Odds to win 2016-17 title

Paris SG: 4/9

Monaco: 7/2

OGC Nice: 6/1

Odds to be relegated in 2016-17

Lorient: 8/13

Bastia: 9/4

Dijon: 9/4

Despite sitting in third place, PSG remain the favorites to win. Without defender David Luiz and striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic this season, PSG are a deeply weakened side that struggles to build play from the back and lacks a reliable striker. Still, in a league like Ligue 1, they can go a long way with what they have. OGC Nice are off to a great start this season, leading the table after seventeen rounds. Monaco are only one point behind and three points in front of PSG.

Lorient rounds out at the bottom of the table along with Bastia and Dijon. But Ligue 1 is quite compact at the bottom and there are quite a few teams that are feeling the threat of relegation breathing down their necks.

UEFA Champions League Odds

Odds to win 2016-17 Champions League

Barcelona: 10/3

Bayern Munich: 4/1

Real Madrid: 9/2

No surprises here. The big three are once again the favorites for the Champions League. The Round of 16 draw was recently announced. Barcelona will face PSG; Bayern will face Arsenal; and Real will face Napoli — three tough draws.

Real Madrid and Bayern struggled in the group stage, both finishing second in their group. Barca finished first in their quartet but suffered a loss to Manchester City the first time they played. It’s been a shaky start all round.

Europa League Odds

Odds to win 2016-17 Europa League

Manchester United: 4/1

Tottenham: 8/1

Roma: 12/1

Naturally, if the most expensive squad in the world is competing in the Europa League, they should be considered the favorite to win. In fact, Paul Pogba’s transfer fee — €105 million — is worth more than the market value of some of the entire starting lineups in the Europa League.

But Tottenham have outperformed United domestically and Roma are currently second in Serie A. They’re all in with a very real chance.

MLS Odds

Odds to win 2017 MLS cup

New York Red Bulls: 3/1

LA Galaxy: 4/1

Seattle Sounders: 17/1

The 2016 MLS Cup ended in spectacular fashion when the Seattle Sounders defeated Toronto FC in a sudden-death shootout. Neither were the favorites to win coming into the playoffs. Toronto had finished third in the Eastern Conference and the Sounders had finished fourth in the West. But they survived each elimination round and met in the finals. The MLS cup is notoriously difficult to predict due to how it is structured. A sudden burst or drop in form could mean the difference between the Cup and a first-round elimination. The three big teams — NY Red Bulls, LA Galaxy, and Seattle Sounders — are once again the preseason favorites.

Photo credit: “Eden Hazard” by Aleksandr Osipov, CC BY-SA 2.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0], via Flickr.