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AC Milan vs Napoli Odds & Prediction – Serie A Round 18

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer

Dec 18, 2021 · 2:00 PM PST

AC Milan's Franck Kessie, center, in action during a Serie A soccer match between AC Milan and Napoli, at the San Siro stadium in Milan, Italy, Sunday, March 14, 2021. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)
  • AC Milan host Napoli in the Serie A’s 18th Matchday on Sunday, December 19th, at 2:45 pm ET
  • Currently, AC Milan sit in second place, four points shy of the defending title winners Inter Milan, while Napoli sits comfortably in fourth place
  • Get the odds, analysis, and betting prediction below

The San Siro hosts a special match this weekend as AC Milan take on Napoli in some must-watch Serie A action. With Covid-19 ravaging the Premier League and the rest of Europe, surely this is a game that every football fan should have circled.

So far this year, both AC Milan and Napoli have been considered favorites for the Scudetto at some point. After both descended from their first-place perch, they now face each other as they look to climb back up the Italian table.

AC Milan vs Napoli Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
AC Milan vs Napoli ACM -0.5 (+123) | NAP +0.5 (-148) ACM +123 | NAP +215 | DRAW +250 Ov 2.5 (-130) | Un 2.5 (+105)

Odds as of Dec 18th at Barstool Sportsbook

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Current Form Heading into Sunday

AC Milan only recently lost their lead atop Serie A, and now sit four points back of city rivals, Inter Milan, with a game in hand. Therefore, a win could put them within striking distance should Inter slip up. However, the Rossoneri have been on a mixed bag of form lately.

In fact, they lost in embarrassing fashion at home to Liverpool in the Champions League, while narrowly grasping a point against Udinese. If it were not for a spectacular and late Zlatan Ibrahimovic goal, they could have found themselves level on points with Atalanta. Nonetheless, two wins from their last five is simply not acceptable from Stefano Pioli’s point of view.

Conversely, Napoli have also struggled to regain the form that dazzled the Serie A at the start of the year. Sadly, injuries have played a major factor in the downfall that was the short-lived Napoli title campaign. Gli Azzurri have only mustered up two wins from their last eight games and a loss to Empoli last weekend perfectly exhibits their poor form.

Kalidou Koulibaly’s Absence is the Most Notable

First things first, we need to discuss the mile-long piece of paper that is Napoli’s injury list. While there are some players returning to action, such as Piotr Zielinski and Stanislav Lobotka, the absences are far more impactful.

Napoli have already released their squad list for Sunday and it does not feature the likes of Lorenzo Insigne, Fabian Ruiz, and Kalidou Koulibaly. Of course, Victor Osimhen also misses the match as he remains sidelined with devastating facial fractures.

Overall, it is less about the amount of injuries Napoli has, but the sheer impact those players have in the starting eleven. It forces Dries Mertens to play, which automatically alters the way Napoli plays, as he serves as more of a floating false nine.

Moreover, it drastically impacts the Napoli defense as Koulibaly has been and still is the pillar of the Gli Azzurri defense. His stats truly speak for how talented he is, applying 9.71 pressures and completing 2.04 tackles and 1.98 blocks per ninety minutes.

Before his injury, Napoli were conceding 0.85 goals per match. Now, this metric has increased to two goals per match as Amir Rrahmani and Juan Jesus occupy the middle of the defense.

AC Milan Look to Take Back the San Siro

While Napoli are up against it in this match, AC Milan has their own internal battles to face. It is safe to say that this year’s AC Milan side look more ambitious than they have in quite some time. Ibrahimovic has brought an aura back to the club and they seem more balanced with players like Franck Kessie and Sandro Tonali controlling the midfield.

AC Milan vs Napoli Serie A Statistics

AC Milan
2.12 Goals per game 2.00
1.66 Expected goals per game 1.59
1.12 Goals allowed per game 0.76
1..08 Expected goals allowed per game 0.75
55.9% Possession % 58.8%
85.2% Passing Accuracy % 87.8%
15.1 Shots per game 15.8

However, this particular head-to-head battle is not one that favors AC Milan, especially at the San Siro. While their home record is 6-1-1 this season at their beloved grounds, it is also a place that Napoli love stealing a point from. Actually, AC Milan have not beaten Napoli in Serie A play at the San Siro since 2014. In the 14 games since that victory, AC Milan are 2-5-7 against Napoli in all competitions.

AC Milan vs Napoli Best Bet

Overall, the best bet for this match is the AC Milan moneyline with odds of +123. This bet has great value and I favor them to start changing the narrative in this Italian rivalry with a win at the San Siro. Napoli’s injury list is too long and Ibrahimovic creates too much of a threat to pass this bet up.

Pick: AC Milan moneyline (+123)

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