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AC Milan vs Roma Odds & Prediction – Serie A Matchday 20

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer

Jan 5, 2022 · 10:21 AM PST

Jose Mourinho
Roma's head coach Jose Mourinho, right, congratulates his player Eldor Shomurodov after scores against Sampdoria during the Italian Serie A soccer match between Roma and Sampdoria at Rome's Olympic stadium, Wednesday, Dec. 22, 2021. (AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia)
  • It is AC Milan vs Roma in Round 20 of Serie A on Thursday, January 6 at 12:30 pm ET
  • Milan is in second, four points adrift of Inter, while Roma is down in sixth place
  • We preview the game, look at the odds, and offer some picks below

AC Milan United hosts Roma at the San Siro on Thursday, January 6 at 12:30 pm ET in Round 20 of Serie A. The home side desperately needs a win here in order to keep in touch with leaders Inter, their city rivals, as the Italian league starts up again after its mid-winter break.

For Roma, the battle resumes for the European places and after winning two of their three games before the break they have put themselves well and truly in contention for, at the very least, a Europa League place next season.

We list the odds, preview AC Milan vs Roma, and offer below the best picks for this Serie A Matchday 20 clash.

AC Milan vs Roma Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
AC Milan vs Roma ACM -0.5 (+102) | ROM +0.5 (-121) ACM +102| DRAW +255 | ROM +260 Ov 2.5 (-137) | Un 2.5 (+112)

Odds as of January 5 at BarStool Sportsbook

Ended 2021 in Style

Milan ended the old year in style with an entertaining 4-2 win away at a spirited Empoli – a vital win for the Rossoneri who had lost ground on Inter the previous week when losing to third-placed Napoli.

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Against Empoli, goals from Franck Kessie (2), Alessandro Florenzi and Theo Hernandez were enough to get the job done and ensure they spent Christmas and the New Year as Inter’s closest challengers – just four points adrift.

Prior to that win, it had been a tough November/December for Milan with a run of four losses in eight games seeing them drop off the pace and hand the initiative to Inter. It was a worrying trend after a similarly poor run in early 2021 effectively ended their challenge in last season’s scudetto. Coach Stefano Pioli will be desperate to avoid such a costly mid-season wobble this time around.

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Away Day Joy for Rossoneri

Interestingly for the Rossoneri, the bulk of their success has come on the road – 17 away wins in the calendar year made them only the second team in Serie A history to achieve this – but as things stand their record at the San Siro this season is just the seventh-best in Serie A, including two defeats in their last three.

A big few weeks are upcoming up for Milan who have Serie A clashes pending with both Inter and Juventus as well as the start of a new Coppa Italia campaign. As a result, they will be keen to start 2022 with a win against a team they beat 2-1 back on October 31.

AC Milan vs Roma Head-to-Head Stats

AC Milan
13-3-3 Serie A Record 10-2-7
40 Goals For 31
22 Goals Against 21
2nd League Position 6th
W-W-L-D-L-W Form Guide (All competitions) L-L-W-W-W-D
1.77 Average Expected Goals For (xG) 1.84

Frustrating 2021 for Roma

2021 ended as it started for Roma… with frustration. A team that, on paper at least, should be challenging was dogged by inconsistency throughout the year and this was summed up by their underwhelming draw with Sampdoria as they closed out 2021; a result that came just four days after a brilliant 4-1 away win Atalanta.

The win in Atalanta, over a top-four rival, was Roma’s second away win on the spin and set them up perfectly to sign off 2021 with a home win over Sampdoria, but a late equalizer from the visitors dented those hopes. As a result, their sixth place is looking precarious with Fiorentina and city rivals Lazio both looking ready to gate-crash the top six at Roma’s expense.

Mourinho Humiliation

Coach Jose Mourinho, after a flying start in the Roma hot seat, has found himself facing many of the same problems as his predecessor Paulo Fonseca, the biggest of which is an almost total inability to gain any sort of momentum on the road. At home, in the Stadio Olimpico, they are capable of beating anyone – six home wins and five clean sheets since Mourinho’s arrival – but away from home they have lost five from nine.

Among those away defeats was the now infamous and very damaging 6-1 hammering by Bodo/Glimt in the Europa Conference League – a result that resounded around all of Europe and did untold damage to Mourinho’s resumรฉ. In total, the Romans lost no less than 12 times away from home across 2021 in Serie A – an unwanted record they have only matched twice since the 1950s.

AC Milan vs Roma Prediction

Taking all of the above into account, especially Roma’s woeful away form, it is hard to make a case for the away win. With Milan due to get the attacking trio of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Rafael Leao and Ante Rebic back after injury, the value here is very much with the home win, which is still just in plus-money.

Picks: AC Milan to win (+102) / Zlatan Ibrahimovic to score first goal (+350)

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