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Arsenal vs Villarreal Odds & Prediction – Europa League Semifinals Leg 2

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated May 7, 2021 · 8:06 AM PDT

Arsenal vs Villarreal
Arsenal's Nicolas Pepe, center, celebrates after scoring his side's opening goal from a penalty shot during the Europa League semifinal first leg soccer match between Villarreal and Arsenal at the Estadio de la Ceramica stadium in Villarreal, Spain, Thursday, April 29, 2021. (AP Photo/Alberto Saiz)
  • Arsenal vs Villarreal meet in the semifinal second leg of the Europa League on Thursday, May 6, kick-off at 4:00 pm EST
  • A second-half goal from Pepe in the first leg means Arsenal start the tie with a 2-1 deficit
  • We preview the game, look at the odds, and offer a best bet below

Arsenal vs Villarreal meet at the Emirates Stadium on Thursday, May 6, kick-off at 4:00 pm EST, in the second leg of their UEFA Europa League semifinal. Arsenal were 2-0 down at half-time in the first leg but a penalty from Pepe reduced the deficit and the Gunners are still very much in the tie.

We list the odds, preview Arsenal vs Villarreal, and offer below the best bet for this huge Europa Leauge match.

Arsenal vs Villarreal Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total at DraftKings
Arsenal vs Villarreal ARS -1 (+160) | VIL +1 (-200) ARS -118| DRAW +260 | VIL +335 Ov 2.5 (-125) | Un 2.5 (+102)

Odds as of May 5

Tie in the Balance But Villarreal With the Lead

Villareal’s narrow 2-1 win in Spain has given the Yellow Submarine the edge in this tie, but the lead is slender and Arsenal will still fancy their chances of going through and, potentially, making it an all-English final against Manchester United. The Gunners though have to be thankful they are still in the tie after facing a Villarreal storm in the first half of the first leg and going 2-0 down; goals from Manu Trigueros and Raul Albiol.

During that torrid first half, former Arsenal manager, Unai Emery – an acknowledged Europa League specialist – had his Villarreal team motivated and set up to exploit the Gunners’ weaknesses, and will have been frustrated that the half-time lead was only 2-0. A third goal before the interval could well have been decisive. As it transpired, Mikel Arteta’s half-time team talk had a positive effect on his Arsenal team, and when Bukayo Saka was fouled in the area, Nicolas Pepe’s converted penalty gave them a lifeline.

Gunners’ Last Chance of Glory

In reality, the Gunners’ only chance of playing European soccer next season is to win this competition, so there can be no greater incentive for Arteta’s men. They now have zero chance of making it into the Premier League’s top four, and even a late charge for a place in the top-seven is looking unlikely although they at least managed a 2-0 win over Newcastle at the weekend to give them some confidence ahead of this second leg.

The win at St James’ Park was timely for the Gunners as it ended a three-game winless run, but they will be aware that their current form at the Emirates is not good. Not since their win over Tottenham in the North London derby on March 14 have they tasted victory on home soil. On a more positive note, however, in the Europa League, they have fared better on home territory.

Arsenal vs Villarreal Head-to-Head Stats

Arsenal
VS
Villarreal
13 UEL 2021 Games played 12
9 Wins 11
2 Draws 1
2 Losses 0
33 Goals scored 27
13 Goals conceded 8
184 Goals attempts 144
87 Passing accuracy (%) 86
6,181 Passes completed 5,717
56 Average possession (%) 58

Yellow Submarine in Fine Form

Emery’s men, unlike Arsenal, are almost certain to achieve a top-seven finish in Spain’s La Liga but will no less motivated to get the job done at the Emirates. Emery’s outstanding record in this competition along with his indifferent spell in charge of the Gunners will add an extra edge to this tie and further increase Villarreal’s desire to get to the final.

Like Arsenal, Villarreal too were victors at the weekend, with a workmanlike 1-0 win over Getafe, thanks to a second-half goal from 18-year-old winger Yeremy, and so will not be lacking in confidence. There is also the small matter of the Yellow Submarine being on an outstanding nine-game winning run in the Europa League, with their1-1 draw away at Maccabi Tel Aviv being the only time they have failed to win.

Equally impressive for the Spaniards is that they have won their last four Europa League games away from home and have not conceded a single goal in the process. Also worth noting is that they have failed to progress in only one of their last 16 European ties when they have won the first leg, and that was way back in the 2015-16 Europa League against Liverpool.

Arsenal vs Villarreal Best Bets

While Arsenal starts this one as favorites, the stats and form guide lend themselves heavily in favor of Villarreal. The Yellow Submarine has been simply unstoppable in this competition and while the Gunners have occasionally flickered into life, theirs has been in an inconsistent, stop-start type of season.

The Gunners poor home form coupled with Villareal’s winning run offers genuine hope for those considering the away win and, for me, this is where the value lies.

Pick: Villarreal to win (+335)


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